Jump to content
Sir_Loin

Kjerstad comes in at #99 on BA Top 100

Recommended Posts

42 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

1) RT, you are all over the place in your opinion here.  Didn't you post a bit back that Martin would likely "be a team player" and lower his bonus demands?  Which is it - guys like Martin are team players or they want full slot and more?  

Whichever number the team and player agree to is what it is.  And agents ask for slot and more and teams offer slot and less. 

Sometimes, there may be a vast difference between what a player requests and what a team is willing to pay based on how it rates a prospect - and a team might take advantage of that.  Sometimes, the difference in talent between player A and player B is not enough to justify the difference in bonus requests. 

2) You seem to be making inferences on where these players are ranked based on their signing bonuses.

1) I said he would likely come in at just below whatever the amount would be for the Blue Jays not to forfeit a #1 and #2 next year. That is still going to be a big number....the bonus allotment + 9.5%

Quote

the loss of first- and second-rounders and a 100 percent tax for more than 10 and up to 15 percent

So they signed all but their 4th rounder who at slot would get 500k. At that number they are about 1.3 million short of the 7.8 million Boras is expecting.

Their allotment number is 9.7 million.....So 970,000 means that Martin would have to agree to accept around 7.5 for the Jays not to lose their 1st and 2nd round picks next year. 
 

2) Boras knew the Marlins and Orioles went with the 9th and 10th ranked players to save money. The Royals took the best pitcher with the other selection that pushed Martin to 5th. So he is expecting at or near slot for his client. As I mentioned, Kjerstad is going to accept somewhere near $2 million dollars less than the #2 slot money. I think any one with a reasonable level of intelligence can figure it out.

So genius, Why isn’t Kjerstad asking for the assigned slot value of 7.7?? If these guys are so close in value, why would Kjerstad’s camp be so willing to accept $2 million less? 
 

I rest my case and am not going to continue to argue with you over this. 
 

https://jaysjournal.com/2020/06/19/toronto-blue-jay-much-can-offer-austin-martin/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

It was $300,000 less, no? And bonuses were frozen this year to the same value as last year.
 

1) Kjerstad’s bargaining position was not what it probably would have been if the season was played in it’s entirety. His advisors were held to what he has shown in the past. The Orioles’ projections models obviously were much higher on him.
 

Similarly, J.J. Bleday was not inline to be a top 5 pick last year at the beginning of the season, but he improved a great deal and was rewarded for his work by Miami. Andrew Benintendi was another who was not even consider publicly as even a third round pick before the 2015 season, but was picked 7th. Many college juniors put it together and rise rapidly. It happens all of the time. LH power is a rare commodity.
 

2) And personally, I think Burnitz would be Kjerstad’s floor. I believe he is a much better hitter, and a better fielder. For me, a better comp is Jay Bruce on the lower end. I could not think of a good higher end recent comp. I think Kjerstad and Bleday are strikingly similar players, though I think Kjerstad has a bit more raw power and a little better hit tool, but it’s close. Bleday is ranked #49 by BA, #28 by MLB Pipeline. 
 

I know...You don’t like the pick. 

1) You don’t know this .... anything could’ve happened. An injury, a slump, big years by other players, etc. Maybe Kjerstad has a stellar year any moves up as you suggest. But it’s far from a certainty.

2) Let me know when Kjerstad has produced 20 WAR! Then we can discuss this further, and you certainly have a right to your opinion. I’m not saying I know one way or the other. I think the Orioles would be content with a return of Burnitz value. As l mentioned, 70% of the guys selected in the 1st round in almost any given year won’t amount to much. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, makoman said:

1) Yes they know where they’re ranked. That’s why you can say “Hey, we want to take you at 2. We see you’re ranked at around 10. So we’ll pay you slot for 7 and call it a day, good?”

2) You can do this because he’s afraid if he doesn’t agree he will fall to 9 or 10. Even if you think he’s  really #2 you can do this. This works best when you think the market undervalues the guy you love. 

1) Noted .... I’m sure that it went that way with Kjerstad. 
 

2) Elias took a player who would sign for less money allowing the Orioles to spend 2 million extra on Baumer and Mayo. Elias then was quoted in the article as saying money wasn’t the only reason that he took Kjerstad. But it was certainly the primary reason. Of course he likes Kjerstad, and he’s certainly not going to down a guy that he just sent a 1st round pick on. But, he was a value pick, not the best player available.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

It was $300,000 less, no? And bonuses were frozen this year to the same value as last year.
 

Kjerstad’s bargaining position was not what it probably would have been if the season was played in it’s entirety. His advisors were held to what he has shown in the past. The Orioles’ projections models obviously were much higher on him.
 

Similarly, J.J. Bleday was not inline to be a top 5 pick last year at the beginning of the season, but he improved a great deal and was rewarded for his work by Miami. Andrew Benintendi was another who was not even consider publicly as even a third round pick before the 2015 season, but was picked 7th. Many college juniors put it together and rise rapidly. It happens all of the time. LH power is a rare commodity.
 

And personally, I think Burnitz would be Kjerstad’s floor. I believe he is a much better hitter, and a better fielder. For me, a better comp is Jay Bruce on the lower end. I could not think of a good higher end recent comp. I think Kjerstad and Bleday are strikingly similar players, though I think Kjerstad has a bit more raw power and a little better hit tool, but it’s close. Bleday is ranked #49 by BA, #28 by MLB Pipeline. 
 

I know...You don’t like the pick. 

Justin Morneau for a higher end comp (offensively at least)?

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Come on now, his floor is he doesn't make the majors.

 

On this we agree 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Flosman said:

Maybe we will get lucky and it turns out like 2003. The 7th best player was better than the 2nd rated 2b. I don't think nick with more power is a bad comp. Weeks is also a great comp for Martin. The truth is we won't  know for a long time. 

I think Jemile Weeks might be a comp for Austin Martin. Or maybe Richie Martin. Or Ryan Flaherty. And that would be very disappointing for A.M.

As for C_o_c's rejection of the Nick comp, Heston and he are both RFs picked in the first round of the Rule 4 draft by the Orioles...so there is a kind of comp. If you look at Nick's power numbers in the first few years of his career, they look a little lower than we hope for Kjerstad. And Nick's BA/OBA look higher than we may expect from HK. What we did not expect was Nick's power declining at a young age and his slugging percentage tumbling below .400 in his 29th year. Nick's power resurgence five years later at the age of 34 was also unpredictable. Might a better comp be Larry Sheets? Don't laugh young bucks: dude could stroke.

By the time the draft came around, I was fearing that the Orioles were going to pick Martin. The thought of Martin being a highly-touted prospect gone bust was palpable for me since he had marginal expectation of playing a premium position and projected to hit for below average power, especially considering the national media scouting services were promoting frozen-in-amber projections because of the unimaginable, shortened college season. I had tried to convince myself they would take Lacy instead. But a lot of us had heard rumors about Kjerstad and others, so I wasn't shocked like many of us were when the Orioles announced their first-round choice.

There is no "Elias love fest" going on here. Nor is there a "hate fest." My gut tells me that when it came to "BPA," the Orioles did not think it was Martin. I think they believed the BPA was Kjerstad. And if the economics adds nuance to the decision, that's fine. It doesn't mean that, in their eyes, Heston was not still their BPA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

It was $300,000 less, no? And bonuses were frozen this year to the same value as last year.
 

Kjerstad’s bargaining position was not what it probably would have been if the season was played in it’s entirety. His advisors were held to what he has shown in the past. The Orioles’ projections models obviously were much higher on him.
 

Similarly, J.J. Bleday was not inline to be a top 5 pick last year at the beginning of the season, but he improved a great deal and was rewarded for his work by Miami. Andrew Benintendi was another who was not even consider publicly as even a third round pick before the 2015 season, but was picked 7th. Many college juniors put it together and rise rapidly. It happens all of the time. LH power is a rare commodity.
 

And personally, I think Burnitz would be Kjerstad’s floor. I believe he is a much better hitter, and a better fielder. For me, a better comp is Jay Bruce on the lower end. I could not think of a good higher end recent comp. I think Kjerstad and Bleday are strikingly similar players, though I think Kjerstad has a bit more raw power and a little better hit tool, but it’s close. Bleday is ranked #49 by BA, #28 by MLB Pipeline. 
 

I know...You don’t like the pick. 

Burnitz and Bruce are/were basically the same player.

 

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Come on now, his floor is he doesn't make the majors.

That's the floor for all draftees.  Even at 1/1 there are 3-4 guys who never made the majors and another ~10 who only had brief cups of coffee.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

I think Jemile Weeks might be a comp for Austin Martin. Or maybe Richie Martin. Or Ryan Flaherty. And that would be very disappointing for A.M.

As for C_o_c's rejection of the Nick comp, Heston and he are both RFs picked in the first round of the Rule 4 draft by the Orioles...so there is a kind of comp. If you look at Nick's power numbers in the first few years of his career, they look a little lower than we hope for Kjerstad. And Nick's BA/OBA look higher than we may expect from HK. What we did not expect was Nick's power declining at a young age and his slugging percentage tumbling below .400 in his 29th year. Nick's power resurgence five years later at the age of 34 was also unpredictable. Might a better comp be Larry Sheets? Don't laugh young bucks: dude could stroke.

By the time the draft came around, I was fearing that the Orioles were going to pick Martin. The thought of Martin being a highly-touted prospect gone bust was palpable for me since he had marginal expectation of playing a premium position and projected to hit for below average power, especially considering the national media scouting services were promoting frozen-in-amber projections because of the unimaginable, shortened college season. I had tried to convince myself they would take Lacy instead. But a lot of us had heard rumors about Kjerstad and others, so I wasn't shocked like many of us were when the Orioles announced their first-round choice.

There is no "Elias love fest" going on here. Nor is there a "hate fest." My gut tells me that when it came to "BPA," the Orioles did not think it was Martin. I think they believed the BPA was Kjerstad. And if the economics adds nuance to the decision, that's fine. It doesn't mean that, in their eyes, Heston was not still their BPA.

Jay Bruce is another interesting name to consider. It also answers the question that @Sports Guy asked a few pages ago about low OBP guys hanging around. .315 is not under 300 But it’s still poor. Burnitz and Bruce are not bad baseball players, they just fell way short of who teams thought they would be. I remember Bruce being part of the discussion for some Orioles trade when he was with the Reds. Some guys here really wanted him! 
 

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Not trying to misquote you sir! I didn’t want to look back to respond.

Just to be clear, I have zero problem with how you characterized what I said, or your general argument.    My only issue is with your degree of certitude that Martin will turn out to be the much superior player, and some of the adjectives you’ve used to describe the Orioles’ decision to go the other direction.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Jay Bruce is another interesting name to consider. It also answers the question that @Sports Guy asked a few pages ago about low OBP guys hanging around. .315 is not under 300 But it’s still poor. Burnitz and Bruce are not bad baseball players, they just fell way short of who teams thought they would be. I remember Bruce being part of the discussion for some Orioles trade when he was with the Reds. Some guys here really wanted him!

That describes most players who were highly regarded as amateurs.  Or even minor leaguers.  I'm sure the Mets were disappointed that they didn't get a Hall of Famer out of Burnitz, just one of the top few hundred players in the world.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

 

There is no "Elias love fest" going on here. Nor is there a "hate fest." My gut tells me that when it came to "BPA," the Orioles did not think it was Martin. I think they believed the BPA was Kjerstad. And if the economics adds nuance to the decision, that's fine. It doesn't mean that, in their eyes, Heston was not still their BPA.

Best available batter. I think they ruled out pitching. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Jay Bruce is another interesting name to consider. It also answers the question that @Sports Guy asked a few pages ago about low OBP guys hanging around. .315 is not under 300 But it’s still poor. Burnitz and Bruce are not bad baseball players, they just fell way short of who teams thought they would be. I remember Bruce being part of the discussion for some Orioles trade when he was with the Reds. Some guys here really wanted him! 

Bruce (19.6 rWAR) was drafted at 1:12 and Burnitz (19.9) at 1:17.    I’d say both did quite well for their draft slot.   Bruce was the 7th best player (by rWAR) ever to be drafted at 12, while Burnitz was the 5th best ever drafted at 17.   I don’t think either fell short of reasonable expectations at the time they were drafted.   

The big difference between the two is the expectations that built up while they were in the minors.    Bruce rose to be the no. 1 prospect in all of MLB (per both BA and BP), and you could say his 19.5 rWAR fell short of that expectation.    Burnitz was never ranked higher than 50th, and you’d gladly take 19.9 rWAR from the no. 50 prospect.   

The O’s sought Bruce when they were shopping Bedard, but the Reds said he was untouchable.    They supposedly did offer us a package that included Votto and Cueto, if I recall correctly.    

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is baking just 1 year ahead, but JJ Bleday feels like a decent Kjerstad comp, in a Barry Bonds of the SEC kind of way.

Vanderbilt's use of Martin spooked me.  Shortstops play SS.  Centerfielders play CF.  I know to some extent NCAA coaches like their baseball ninjas, but I hope for blue chips to be Ripken like fixtures at their position.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, OrioleDog said:

It is baking just 1 year ahead, but JJ Bleday feels like a decent Kjerstad comp, in a Barry Bonds of the SEC kind of way.

Vanderbilt's use of Martin spooked me.  Shortstops play SS.  Centerfielders play CF.  I know to some extent NCAA coaches like their baseball ninjas, but I hope for blue chips to be Ripken like fixtures at their position.

Ripken, who pitched in high school and played 274 games at 3B and 178 at SS in the minors?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

It is baking just 1 year ahead, but JJ Bleday feels like a decent Kjerstad comp, in a Barry Bonds of the SEC kind of way.

Vanderbilt's use of Martin spooked me.  Shortstops play SS.  Centerfielders play CF.  I know to some extent NCAA coaches like their baseball ninjas, but I hope for blue chips to be Ripken like fixtures at their position.

I have no fear of Martin playing the left side of the infield but if he can become a plus defender in CF or 2nd base with a high OBP that is a very valuable player.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Who's Online   0 Members, 0 Anonymous, 122 Guests (See full list)

    There are no registered users currently online

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






×
×
  • Create New...