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Kjerstad comes in at #99 on BA Top 100

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9 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

In my gut, I don’t think the Orioles went BPA with the pick. They went with the best player that would cut a deal that allowed the later picks. 
 

I can be sure if Martin will be the better player. I think he has a cleaner swing, makes more contact, and has a better BB/K rates. 
 

Will that translate? The Blue Jays think it will. They used the terms like elated that he was available at 5 and shocked.

Will Kjerstad end up a bust, a Burnitz/Bruce type, or perhaps Palmeiro? We will also have to wait and see.

As I mentioned in other posts. I’m far from sold on Elias as a GM. I think he’s good at Data, analytics, and even convincing the Angelos boys that they needed to be in play internationally to be competitive.

I don’t think he’s a shrewd negotiator, haven’t been impressed with the drafting, or the trade returns of his deals! In addition, I’m firmly on record as hating the whole Villar situation.

Palmeiro had a swing of beauty. They swing differently now. I think Kierstad is a modern baseball batter. 

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25 minutes ago, weams said:

I do too. What I've seen of his character seems quite high. but maybe he hides his dark side well. 

What is your impression of the first play.

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35 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Swagger isn’t knocking down the first baseman on that play. I’m not insinuating that you are saying that. Just wondering 

Lol you're such a hater. Guy was in his way and blocking the bag, who cares?

But I was more talking about watching the majestic dingers. 

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51 minutes ago, rudyrooster said:

The "Oriole way" relates back to Cal Ripken Sr.  Back way before his sons were major leaguers.

My understanding is the "Oriole Way" was a focus on the correct fundamentals. You win by doing the little things right. Field every grounder the right way, do every cut off play the same way, know how you're supposed to take a lead, etc. etc. Perfect practice makes perfect.

"Playing the game the right way" is different. To me it's more of an old sportswriter construct of deifying the old traditional (and some would say boring) way of playing like we imagine people played in 1950. No showboating or really acting like you are having fun at all. Follow all the unwritten rules. And gosh, if you didn't show the utmost in grave respect then Bob Gibson would darn near kill you next time you came to bat, and that is fair and "right." Most importantly, it let those old sportswriters write articles about how they'd prefer Eckstein and Counsell to ARod.

I like the former, couldn't really care less about the latter. And back on topic, I'm not going to form an opinion of a guy based on a one-off play where he shoves someone while coming to a full speed stop. Guess what, if you stop on a dime where somebody else is you might give a shove to keep your balance. Or maybe it was on purpose and a chad move, but I don't really care that much.

Edited by makoman
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I know you were not asking me but I have no problem with it.  He didn't blast the guy but he did let everyone know who the alpha is and the blocking the base could lead to consequences.

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9 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

What is your impression of the first play.

Awesome. 

I mean, he could have run him over and fell on him, but he just stopped his momentum by pushing off him.  Nothing wrong with it at all.

However, my other impression is that the catcher shouldn't have made a throw.  The throw to first was off the mark, the catcher did the right thing by backing up first.  Future Hall of Famer Kjerstad was safe, turned TOWARDS the foul line like you're taught and didn't need to rush back to first...he hadn't made a move to second.  The catcher made the snap throw which was unnecessary as Kjerstad didn't turn towards second.  

 

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25 minutes ago, weams said:

Palmeiro had a swing of beauty. They swing differently now. I think Kierstad is a modern baseball batter. 

Swinging for the 🌙 every time and striking out a ton?

Closer to the draft I used Pedroia as what I think the Orioles could use. A high average, high OBP type that could give you a bunch of doubles and could develop into a 15-20 Homerun guy.

i think that Martin is more of that type of player than Kjerstad. And the Orioles are a team that outside of Mancini and Villar that they really don’t have. That was part of the reason that I was disgusted over them going the other way on Villar. Giving him away for scraps.

Will Martin achieve that potential? Who knows but I don’t think Kjerstad will ever be that guy. Even if he develops into a good MLB player it’s more likely that he’s closer to Burnitz, Bruce, or even Adam Jones and his .317 OBP

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17 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Swinging for the 🌙 every time and striking out a ton?

Closer to the draft I used Pedroia as what I think the Orioles could use. A high average, high OBP type that could give you a bunch of doubles and could develop into a 15-20 Homerun guy.

i think that Martin is more of that type of player than Kjerstad. And the Orioles are a team that outside of Mancini and Villar that they really don’t have. That was part of the reason that I was disgusted over them going the other way on Villar. Giving him away for scraps.

Will Martin achieve that potential? Who knows but I don’t think Kjerstad will ever be that guy. Even if he develops into a good MLB player it’s more likely that he’s closer to Burnitz, Bruce, or even Adam Jones and his .317 OBP

9 players had over 170 Ks last year. They were worth (fWAR)

4.5, 5.6, 4.8, 3.6, 4.6, 0.3, 4.0, 5.8, 2.2.

Roughned Odor was the outlier, but there's no reason at this point to think this kid is going to hit .205.

15-20 homers, high average and OBP, lots of doubles. That's what, Bryan Reynolds? Trea Turner? Whit Merrifield? Corey Seagor? 3.2, 3.5, 2.9, 3.3. You'd prefer Ozzie Albies or Jeff McNeil, both 4.6, but up in the 20s HR. Nothing wrong with that kind of guy at all, but let's not act like they are far and away better than guys who hit lots of homers and strike out a ton.  Being a 15 HR guy in 2009 was different than 2019. It would be nice if we knew Martin would be adequate at a premium position but that's far from set in stone.

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1 hour ago, Ruzious said:

Remember Kent Hrbeck - very big 1st baseman for the Twins.  In the WS, medium sized Ron Gant was on first the Braves, and big Hrby knocked him off the base with ball in enormous glove.  Ump called Gant out.  I've never come to terms with the question - Did Hrby play the right way there? 

Being a man of moderate stature, I think that Hrbek should have been banned from the game for life, forced to play in strange outlaw leagues that passed the hat to pay the players.

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

David Eckstein!  

"Give me 25 David Ecksteins with their 87+ career averages and I can win the World Series," said no one ever.

Steve Pearce is a gamer. - Jim Hunter.  

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5 minutes ago, makoman said:

9 players had over 170 Ks last year. They were worth (fWAR)

4.5, 5.6, 4.8, 3.6, 4.6, 0.3, 4.0, 5.8, 2.2.

Roughned Odor was the outlier, but there's no reason at this point to think this kid is going to hit .205.

15-20 homers, high average and OBP, lots of doubles. That's what, Bryan Reynolds? Trea Turner? Whit Merrifield? Corey Seagor? 3.2, 3.5, 2.9, 3.3. You'd prefer Ozzie Albies or Jeff McNeil, both 4.6, but up in the 20s HR. Nothing wrong with that kind of guy at all, but let's not act like they are far and away better than guys who hit lots of homers and strike out a ton.  Being a 15 HR guy in 2009 was different than 2019. It would be nice if we knew Martin would be adequate at a premium position but that's far from set in stone.

They weren't that valuable because they struck out that much, they were given enough at bats to strike out that much because they were valuable.

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9 minutes ago, makoman said:

9 players had over 170 Ks last year. They were worth (fWAR)

4.5, 5.6, 4.8, 3.6, 4.6, 0.3, 4.0, 5.8, 2.2.

Roughned Odor was the outlier, but there's no reason at this point to think this kid is going to hit .205.

There's a bit of selection bias in your dataset.  There are thousands of prospects who could strike out 170, 190, 220 or more times in a season.  Keon Broxton probably could have struck out 350 times last year if the O's started him in center every day*.  But only the ones who're really good get to keep playing, the guys with ridiculous BABIPs because they hit the ball so hard.  If you strike out 188 times and hit .188 with 15 homers your best shot is to become a cult hero in Toledo.

* Broxton's 2019 K rate pro-rated to 700 PAs would give him 328 strikeouts.

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49 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

What is your impression of the first play.

I like the swing myself. I rarely worry about the play of 19 year olds. Even if they don't observe Queensbury Rules. We used to send them out to die for us to stay home and healthy. Now, I think that maturity comes a bit later. 

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