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Kjerstad comes in at #99 on BA Top 100

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13 minutes ago, makoman said:

 

Roughned Odor was the outlier, but there's no reason at this point to think this kid is going to hit .205.

 

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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They weren't that valuable because they struck out that much, they were given enough at bats to strike out that much because they were valuable.

 

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There's a bit of selection bias in your dataset.  There are thousands of prospects who could strike out 170, 190, 220 or more times in a season.  Keon Broxton probably could have struck out 350 times last year if the O's started him in center every day*.  But only the ones who're really good get to keep playing, the guys with ridiculous BABIPs because they hit the ball so hard.  If you strike out 188 times and hit .188 with 15 homers you're best shot is to become a cult hero in Toledo.

* Broxton's 2019 K rate pro-rated to 700 PAs would give him 328 strikeouts.

Of course, but he's basically saying even if Kjerstad is a success he doesn't want the guy who mashes and K's a lot, he wants Dustin Pedroia. If he's going to assume Martin is Pedoria a multiple time MVP candidate I can assume Kjerstad is good enough to lead the league in Ks. This whole discussion is kind of off the rails at this point anyway.

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32 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There's a bit of selection bias in your dataset.  There are thousands of prospects who could strike out 170, 190, 220 or more times in a season.  Keon Broxton probably could have struck out 350 times last year if the O's started him in center every day*.  But only the ones who're really good get to keep playing, the guys with ridiculous BABIPs because they hit the ball so hard.  If you strike out 188 times and hit .188 with 15 homers your best shot is to become a cult hero in Toledo.

Quote

If you strike out 188 times and hit .188 with 15 homers your best shot is to become a cult hero in Baltimore.

ftfy!

Chris Davis 2018: .168 BA; 192 K; 16 HRs

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16 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

1) You don’t know this .... anything could’ve happened. An injury, a slump, big years by other players, etc. Maybe Kjerstad has a stellar year any moves up as you suggest. But it’s far from a certainty.

2) Let me know when Kjerstad has produced 20 WAR! Then we can discuss this further, and you certainly have a right to your opinion. I’m not saying I know one way or the other. I think the Orioles would be content with a return of Burnitz value. As l mentioned, 70% of the guys selected in the 1st round in almost any given year won’t amount to much. 

Nothing about a draft is certain. Martin may have had a major slump, an injury, or whatever. No?  A leg injury to Martin that limits his speed would be huge for his value. The bat would have to carry him more. 
 

The model that Sig and Elias had apparently believes it was likely that Kjerstad would ascend in a similar way as Bleday. Young players improve, sometimes in a rapid fashion at this age. That is what we all hope for. The Orioles front office are standing behind their work. It’s a gamble, sure. But it’s an educated one. You have to admit, they are ballsy. They are strong in their belief in their system. 
 

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9 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Burnitz and Bruce are/were basically the same player.

I suppose so. It’s disappointing to see how Bruce’s career plateaued at a fairly young age. Burnitz was a little better than I remembered. 

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32 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I suppose so. It’s disappointing to see how Bruce’s career plateaued at a fairly young age. Burnitz was a little better than I remembered. 

Bruce is the poster boy for all that's wrong with baseball free agency.  Just as he got expensive he turned into a 1-win player.  He's probably now 10% better than DJ Stewart at 28 times the price.

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8 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Swagger isn’t knocking down the first baseman on that play. 

I won't get into the middle of the pi$$ing contest but Kjerstad hustled back to the bag and the 1B was shifting toward the bag after receiving the throw and IMO 1B was over the bag as Kjerstad got there. They collide, 1B looses his balance and falls backward. There was solid body contact IMO though. Kjerstad could have grabbed him, maybe.  I don't see a cheap shot and I'm FAR from a Homer. If anyone is "insinuating" it's you. You view Martin as BPA, I thought Lacy. I agree with SG, Martin isn't that highly rated unless he stays on left side of IF or CF. I think his comp is becoming Roberts and I would go back to WC pre-draft posts against using #2 for a 2B. Manny did far worse than that.

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9 hours ago, makoman said:

9 players had over 170 Ks last year. They were worth (fWAR)

4.5, 5.6, 4.8, 3.6, 4.6, 0.3, 4.0, 5.8, 2.2.

Roughned Odor was the outlier, but there's no reason at this point to think this kid is going to hit .205.

15-20 homers, high average and OBP, lots of doubles. That's what, Bryan Reynolds? Trea Turner? Whit Merrifield? Corey Seagor? 3.2, 3.5, 2.9, 3.3. You'd prefer Ozzie Albies or Jeff McNeil, both 4.6, but up in the 20s HR. Nothing wrong with that kind of guy at all, but let's not act like they are far and away better than guys who hit lots of homers and strike out a ton.  Being a 15 HR guy in 2009 was different than 2019. It would be nice if we knew Martin would be adequate at a premium position but that's far from set in stone.

See ...this is just another example of a poor post! Show me where anybody predicted Kjerstad would have a -205 batting average. Is it poor comprehension, are just stupid, or are you hoping to get some free rep for saying something truly ridiculous like it was a fact.

Heres a fact for you absurd post, If Kjerstad hits .205 or anywhere close to it after year 2 in the majors he won’t be around very long. Also the only reason Chris Davis and his 27 million dollar contract didn’t make that list is he was essentially a part time player 139Ks in 352 ABs. 
 

Why would you only use players that make your argument ....As been said by someone else, Whitaker, Pedroia, Molitor (22 HRs was his highest), Wade Boggs (22 was highest and his second highest was 11). See, I can do it too!

The guy is widely considered to have the best bat in the draft. I have no idea what he will be anymore or less than you do! Same with Kjerstad! But, I still think he’s the better prospect and don’t think is by a narrow margin. That is my opinion....If I end up being wrong at very least I will be man enough to admit it! I’m betting most of the guys on the other side of it won’t.....wait and see! 
 

 

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

5.2M

 

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

For how much?

So he took 2.5 million less .... I rest my case! If the Orioles or Kjerstad thought there was a narrow margin between him and Martin, Lacy etc .....He doesn’t accept 2.5 million light.

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2 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

I won't get into the middle of the pi$$ing contest but Kjerstad hustled back to the bag and the 1B was shifting toward the bag after receiving the throw and IMO 1B was over the bag as Kjerstad got there. They collide, 1B looses his balance and falls backward. There was solid body contact IMO though. Kjerstad could have grabbed him, maybe.  I don't see a cheap shot and I'm FAR from a Homer. If anyone is "insinuating" it's you. You view Martin as BPA, I thought Lacy. I agree with SG, Martin isn't that highly rated unless he stays on left side of IF or CF. I think his comp is becoming Roberts and I would go back to WC pre-draft posts against using #2 for a 2B. Manny did far worse than that.

I wasn’t the only one .... @Can_of_corn was the guy saying it was a D*** move. I gave my opinion. I get it, it’s a fan site and there will be homerism. At least have the intestinal fortitude to admit it.

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Just now, Roll Tide said:

I wasn’t the only one .... @Can_of_corn was the guy saying it was a D*** move. I gave my opinion. I get it, it’s a fan site and there will be homerism. At least have the intestinal fortitude to admit it.

Technically a chad move.  😉

 

To be clear I don't have a big issue with that type of play, I'd rather they didn't happen but I won't pillory a player over it.  I just don't think you should say a guy that does that sort of thing "plays the game the right way".

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