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How will the Mahomes extension impact Lamar?

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As we all know by now, Mahomes signed a 10 year deal.  As with most things in the NFL, the deal looks much bigger than it really is and the guarantees are no where near the 503 million.

Nonetheless, it obviously has huge impact on the Ravens and Lamar.  Lamar isn’t Mahomes and you likely wouldn’t bank on Lamar being elite in 10 years like you would Mahomes.

Lamar can sign his deal next year.  That would still leave 2 more years on his rookie deal plus however many years he signs for.

I don’t see the Ravens going 10 years and no QB should get paid more than Mahomes. However, I could see Lamar getting a shorter deal but with more guaranteed money.  

 

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I wouldn't give Lamar a long term contract.  Just Franchise him for a couple of years and then let him go.  I can't see him being effective as a running quarterback after 7 years.  How many running backs are effective after 7 years of starting?

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I think what happens with Dak and Watson has more of a parallel with Jackson than Mahomes.  Both of those guys are looking for shorter extensions.

Mahomes’ deal will be redone in four to five years most likely.

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20 hours ago, atomic said:

I wouldn't give Lamar a long term contract.  Just Franchise him for a couple of years and then let him go.  I can't see him being effective as a running quarterback after 7 years.  How many running backs are effective after 7 years of starting?

A lot of assumptions there, not mentioned burned bridges, and inefficient use of the cap given franchise tag values.  Not to mention you are hamstringing the team against their main competition which will be this Chiefs team because they arent paying Mahomes over the next few years any more than the Panthers are paying Bridgewater.

I think Jackson will also want a shorter term deal and I would echo the other post here that says that the Dak and Watson deals with be much better analogs.

So, I guess my conclusion is the Mahomes deal isnt that determinative of what will happen with Jackson unless Jackson wins something meaningful in the playoffs next year.

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42 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

A lot of assumptions there, not mentioned burned bridges, and inefficient use of the cap given franchise tag values.  Not to mention you are hamstringing the team against their main competition which will be this Chiefs team because they arent paying Mahomes over the next few years any more than the Panthers are paying Bridgewater.

I think Jackson will also want a shorter term deal and I would echo the other post here that says that the Dak and Watson deals with be much better analogs.

So, I guess my conclusion is the Mahomes deal isnt that determinative of what will happen with Jackson unless Jackson wins something meaningful in the playoffs next year.

I have seen many instances where the Ravens could have franchised a player for a year and instead decided to give them long extensions.  Ray Rice for example.  Dennis Pita is another.  Plus how many guys have we signed to big deals and then the same year wanted to get rid of?  If you aren't handicapping yourself with big long term deals you can afford to keep a player on franchise status each year. 

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12 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

What’s the franchise figure going to be in 2023/2024? $30M+? $35M+?

Here again the Mahomes deal is unlikely to effect that number in the years in which you would be franchising Jackson because all the reports are its backloaded.  But if Dak and Watson sign big deals with big numbers 3 years out then yeah I think you are looking at something in the mid $30's.

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8 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Here again the Mahomes deal is unlikely to effect that number in the years in which you would be franchising Jackson because all the reports are its backloaded.  But if Dak and Watson sign big deals with big numbers 3 years out then yeah I think you are looking at something in the mid $30's.

Doesn’t it have to go up a minimum of 5% each year?

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Unfortunately 2023 is the first year Mahomes gets a little more expensive ($42.5M). Hopefully it takes a year or two for Dak/Watson extensions (usually year 1 and/or 2 have a lower cap number).
 

But  I’d guess Lamar would cost about $35-$38M if he were to be franchised in 2023. That would lead to $42-$45M in 2024. (And $60-65M in 2025). 
 

I don’t think they should (or will) go this route, but they could keep him for the following (cap numbers):

2020 - $2.5M

2021 - $3M

2022 - $20M*

2023 - $36M*

2024 - $43M*

2025 - $62M*
*very rough estimates (And could change with big QB contracts)

It would essentially be his rookie deal plus a year by year total of 1/36, 2/79, or 3/141. Not the worst thing IF you think he could run out of steam at some point and you think he’s somewhat close to Mahomes value. Again, they won’t do this, but this is what it would look like. 

(Note: 2025 would be Lamar’s age 28 season)

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If Mahomes contract can be used as a comp for anyone, it's Lamar. That said, until Lamar wins a playoff game, he's looking at whatever the Watson contract would be. He's not eligible until next offseason, and there will inevitably be a few more QB contracts handed out by then.

If I'm the Ravens, I'm locking down Lamar with a long-term deal as soon as possible. As we know, the cost only increases and even bad QB's raise the bar (looking at you Flacco), so the sooner we do it, the better the deal will be long-term. I'd rather sign him to a 10/450 now than have to sign him for 5/250 in two years.

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On 7/9/2020 at 3:04 PM, dorfmac said:

If Mahomes contract can be used as a comp for anyone, it's Lamar. That said, until Lamar wins a playoff game, he's looking at whatever the Watson contract would be. He's not eligible until next offseason, and there will inevitably be a few more QB contracts handed out by then.

If I'm the Ravens, I'm locking down Lamar with a long-term deal as soon as possible. As we know, the cost only increases and even bad QB's raise the bar (looking at you Flacco), so the sooner we do it, the better the deal will be long-term. I'd rather sign him to a 10/450 now than have to sign him for 5/250 in two years.

Not me .... I’m probably with Atomic on this one. I’d franchise him a couple times and see if he can deliver the big one. If not....cut your losses and move on. I still think a knee injury makes Lamar look less like Mahomes and more like what RG3 is now.

Im still not sold on his ability to win in the playoffs and Lamar has not played good when behind in games.

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11 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Not me .... I’m probably with Atomic on this one. I’d franchise him a couple times and see if he can deliver the big one. If not....cut your losses and move on. I still think a knee injury makes Lamar look less like Mahomes and more like what RG3 is now.

Im still not sold on his ability to win in the playoffs and Lamar has not played good when behind in games.

Plus I mean.  Did you SEE how he was running on the beach with that jet ski?    So not elite.   Ravens should be ready to move on asap.

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2 hours ago, Aglets said:

Plus I mean.  Did you SEE how he was running on the beach with that jet ski?    So not elite.   Ravens should be ready to move on asap.

I really don’t care about his nonfootball stuff. Other than the stupidity of his youth.

Driving 100+ miles per hour in his Mercedes while holding his phone to film it. 
 

Stupid Speeding ....Even stupider being on his phone.

The backflip Over the ski was also dangerous really.

My concern would be giving a big contract and then having bad injury .

 

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It's two more years before we have to worry about it, but they should definitely be planning.  It's gonna cost us more than the Mahomes deal just because that's the way things are....... unless there is an injury, but even then if recovery is foreseen then we're going to have to pony-up big to even see.  I think they go that route.  I think they pay him big in any event.  How much will it cost?  By then put another 50-100 mil on top of Mahomes considering the same duration of contract.

What I think they should do is sign him, use him for a few years and trade him for a King's ransom.  How long do you keep him?  All that depends on his performance (EDIT: and the stability of the team).  But considering they sign him for 10 years as they did Mahomes, by year 5 I'd be seriously looking to deal him.  That kind of yearly expenditure on one player can cripple a team because they can't divide the leftovers to needs properly UNLESS they hit perfectly on every draft and have young, cheap players coming into the pipeline to defer their "cheap" paychecks to the need areas.

I think this was the plan the Pats had for Brady a few years ago.  Actually, the year that Garappolo was traded, I thought the previous offseason was when Bellichik was gonna trade Brady.  Problem was, the old guy pulled out a SuperBowl win and trading a legend who had just won a SuperBowl would have been bad optics anywhere, much less the in New England.  Those kooks would have burned down Foxboro. :)  Anyway, I think we have a similar plan for Lamar.  The take on trading Brady at that time would have been huge.  I think even Mahomes could back into such a scenario if and when that team goes south.  Just the way things are.

Edited by drjohnnyfeva
added additional caveat...

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On 7/25/2020 at 8:14 AM, drjohnnyfeva said:

It's two more years before we have to worry about it, but they should definitely be planning.  It's gonna cost us more than the Mahomes deal just because that's the way things are....... unless there is an injury, but even then if recovery is foreseen then we're going to have to pony-up big to even see.  I think they go that route.  I think they pay him big in any event.  How much will it cost?  By then put another 50-100 mil on top of Mahomes considering the same duration of contract.

What I think they should do is sign him, use him for a few years and trade him for a King's ransom.  How long do you keep him?  All that depends on his performance (EDIT: and the stability of the team).  But considering they sign him for 10 years as they did Mahomes, by year 5 I'd be seriously looking to deal him.  That kind of yearly expenditure on one player can cripple a team because they can't divide the leftovers to needs properly UNLESS they hit perfectly on every draft and have young, cheap players coming into the pipeline to defer their "cheap" paychecks to the need areas.

I think this was the plan the Pats had for Brady a few years ago.  Actually, the year that Garappolo was traded, I thought the previous offseason was when Bellichik was gonna trade Brady.  Problem was, the old guy pulled out a SuperBowl win and trading a legend who had just won a SuperBowl would have been bad optics anywhere, much less the in New England.  Those kooks would have burned down Foxboro. :)  Anyway, I think we have a similar plan for Lamar.  The take on trading Brady at that time would have been huge.  I think even Mahomes could back into such a scenario if and when that team goes south.  Just the way things are.

Brady is a bad comp as he always played for below market with the Patriots. Brady understood that the team needed other good players in order to win. 
 

Most other Star  NFL players want the money first. Considering the short shelf life of most NFL players it’s understandable.

I just wouldn’t do it with Lamar. The injury risk to his best weapon (his legs) he is too high. I don’t think he will ever get us a Super Bowl. I also don’t think he plays well from behind and don’t think he’s accurate downfield.

 

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