(vs. PHILLIES, 8/11)
This game was a bad one for the Orioles relievers, in an otherwise pretty darned good season for them overall.
This Orioles found a way to win the game in spite of them, not because of them.
Tanner Scott, Michael Givens, Evan Phillips, and Travis Lakins were OK ........ Miguel Castro and Cole Sulser were not.
I don't believe in the justification that says making a physical mistake is an error, but making a mental mistake is a nothing. The hitter got credit for a hit on a very routine popout, and there's no accounting for that anywhere. You have to dig through the box score and descriptions to find the odd "single to 3B, pop fly to weak 2B" or you'd assume it was a line drive.
Against a lot of other batters, I think the shift may be less extreme in that situation, though. How often do you see the defense leave a speedy runner completely unattended on third like that?
If you think your odds there are close to 45% or 50% of success (not unreasonable in my mind given how close the play was), then there's almost no batter up who would have favorable odds to score swinging vs. the shot they took. Obviously the worse the batter is, the more it changes the balance of odds (it's tautological at that point), but I don't think it's a Davis-specific decision there in any way.
Errors are a huge hole in how baseball accounts for what happened. A single is a single, it puts a guy on first. A strikeout is a strikeout, which is an out 99.9% of the time, and if it's not someone notes that there was a passed ball/WP.
But an error... it could be four runs. It could be nothing at all, on a dropped foul pop up. It could be because of a bad hop. But there's no error when a player has a terrible lapse in judgment, so failure to call for a routine fly ball is recorded exactly the same as a lined shot up the gap. There's no differentiation (in the official records) of a throwing error vice a fielding error. I'm guessing the error rate in the late innings of no-hitters is significantly higher than otherwise. Errors and un/earned runs are pretty close to breaking the accounting of box scores, which should tell us what happened so we can reserve judgment for later.