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MurphDogg

9/4 Player Pool - Lowther added

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1 hour ago, MountUrCastle said:

When you get a pitcher playing in the GCL at 22 years of age for a 3.9 WAR infielder im tempted to say without needing results that it's a bad trade, for example.

 

I get that he was projected to make a lot in arb (and by a lot a whole 8.2 million, crazy!) but I find it tough to believe the market was that cold.

Oh you’re talking about Villar. I appreciate that the decision could’ve gone either way, but Villar is a very frustrating player to watch, He would’ve been extremely expensive in arbitration, and the team tried very hard to trade him During a career season with absolutely no response.

It is clear that there was no market for him, and we were faced with the prospect of paying him money we would not recoup or non-tendering him And getting nothing.

I have no problem with what Mike did, although I understand the attitude of those who do. It is clear to me that he got what he was able to get, And he was able to get more than nothing, so points for him. Regardless, you don’t judge somebody by one trade, and you really can’t yet judge the results of any trade he’s made.

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12 hours ago, Philip said:

Yes, and Brad Corbett laughed that the day Clyde debuted, he made back the $30,000 signing bonus in concession sales alone, And Clyde’s career was completely ruined. He was out of baseball in about three years, and he could’ve been a Hall of Famer.

I mean, anything is possible.  But what are the odds that a high school pitcher taken high in the first round is going to have a HOF career?

Here's a list of the best 10 careers out of high school pitchers taken in the top 10 picks:

Zack Greinke (#6 overall)
Clayton Kershaw (7)
Dwight Gooden (5)
Jon Matlack (4)
Josh Beckett (2)
Kerry Wood (4)
Mike Morgan (4)
Bill Gullickson (2)
Joe Coleman (3)
J. R. Richard (2)

So far, since the draft started in '65, there has never been a HOFer picked as a high school pitcher in the top 10 picks. Roy Halladay (#17 in '95) is the only 1st round high school pitcher to be inducted into Cooperstown.

This is out of 430 high school pitchers taken in the 1st round.  Clyde going to the Hall was always a longshot.

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9 hours ago, Philip said:

Oh you’re talking about Villar. I appreciate that the decision could’ve gone either way, but Villar is a very frustrating player to watch, He would’ve been extremely expensive in arbitration, and the team tried very hard to trade him During a career season with absolutely no response.

It is clear that there was no market for him, and we were faced with the prospect of paying him money we would not recoup or non-tendering him And getting nothing.

I have no problem with what Mike did, although I understand the attitude of those who do. It is clear to me that he got what he was able to get, And he was able to get more than nothing, so points for him. Regardless, you don’t judge somebody by one trade, and you really can’t yet judge the results of any trade he’s made.

They could’ve extended Villar for a much lower number IMO. He was playing well here and seemed to have taken a step forward. Also, I don’t believe owners stuff money away to be spent later. So providing an entertaining product should have some importance when you are expecting people to pay to watch games (either through cable bills or gates)

In judging the GM...you have to acknowledge what we don’t know. What did he turn down? You and I don’t know the answer to that question. Elias has taken very young players 17-22 as most of the trade pieces. So perhaps he turned down better older players that don’t fit the timeline. In the Bundy deal, I thought he took too much quantity (4 players) and not enough quality.

I would’ve get him instead of the paltry return. Then when the market played out perhaps he takes 3 years 15-16 million for stability. Maybe incentive clauses make up the difference of AAV if he performs. A couple of seasons like last year probably increase his marketability. I also think Johnny like to play here with this group. 

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49 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

They could’ve extended Villar for a much lower number IMO. He was playing well here and seemed to have taken a step forward. Also, I don’t believe owners stuff money away to be spent later. So providing an entertaining product should have some importance when you are expecting people to pay to watch games (either through cable bills or gates)

In judging the GM...you have to acknowledge what we don’t know. What did he turn down? You and I don’t know the answer to that question. Elias has taken very young players 17-22 as most of the trade pieces. So perhaps he turned down better older players that don’t fit the timeline. In the Bundy deal, I thought he took too much quantity (4 players) and not enough quality.

I would’ve get him instead of the paltry return. Then when the market played out perhaps he takes 3 years 15-16 million for stability. Maybe incentive clauses make up the difference of AAV if he performs. A couple of seasons like last year probably increase his marketability. I also think Johnny like to play here with this group. 

We’ve talked about the Villar trade plenty. No need to rehash it.

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I mean, anything is possible.  But what are the odds that a high school pitcher taken high in the first round is going to have a HOF career?

Here's a list of the best 10 careers out of high school pitchers taken in the top 10 picks:

Zack Greinke (#6 overall)
Clayton Kershaw (7)
Dwight Gooden (5)
Jon Matlack (4)
Josh Beckett (2)
Kerry Wood (4)
Mike Morgan (4)
Bill Gullickson (2)
Joe Coleman (3)
J. R. Richard (2)

So far, since the draft started in '65, there has never been a HOFer picked as a high school pitcher in the top 10 picks. Roy Halladay (#17 in '95) is the only 1st round high school pitcher to be inducted into Cooperstown.

This is out of 430 high school pitchers taken in the 1st round.  Clyde going to the Hall was always a longshot.

I really appreciate that information, I was actually engaging in a bit of hyperbole. Clyde was an excellent prospect and could’ve been excellent pitcher but Brad Corbett treated him like a circus sideshow and didn’t give a damn about his development.

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3 hours ago, Philip said:

I really appreciate that information, I was actually engaging in a bit of hyperbole. Clyde was an excellent prospect and could’ve been excellent pitcher but Brad Corbett treated him like a circus sideshow and didn’t give a damn about his development.

I assumed as much.  When I do one of these little mini-research projects it's usually because I'm interested in the outcome because I really don't know.  In this case I thought the number would be low, but I had no idea it would be zero.  If someone eventually takes a high school pitcher 1-10 and they make the Hall it will be unprecedented.

Which leads to why... and my speculation would be that doing the things necessary to get the attention of scouts and get drafted in the top 10 at 18 are hugely counterproductive to having a long career.  I'd guess most 18 year old ace pitchers are destined for surgery.

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9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I assumed as much.  When I do one of these little mini-research projects it's usually because I'm interested in the outcome because I really don't know.  In this case I thought the number would be low, but I had no idea it would be zero.  If someone eventually takes a high school pitcher 1-10 and they make the Hall it will be unprecedented.

Which leads to why... and my speculation would be that doing the things necessary to get the attention of scouts and get drafted in the top 10 at 18 are hugely counterproductive to having a long career.  I'd guess most 18 year old ace pitchers are destined for surgery.

Grey-Rod was #11, so maybe he can be the first! And no TJ yet!

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3 hours ago, Philip said:

We’ve talked about the Villar trade plenty. No need to rehash it.

I didn’t bring it up. I was simply replying to the conversation 

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1 minute ago, Philip said:

Grey-Rod was #11, so maybe he can be the first! And no TJ yet!

I think Greinke gets there first.  Greinke isn't quite a HOF shoo-in yet, but even by traditional numbers he's Don Drysdale with 40 fewer losses.

But Grey-Rod is a higher pick than Halladay.

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On 8/10/2020 at 11:03 PM, Philip said:

Oh you’re talking about Villar. I appreciate that the decision could’ve gone either way, but Villar is a very frustrating player to watch, He would’ve been extremely expensive in arbitration, and the team tried very hard to trade him During a career season with absolutely no response.

It is clear that there was no market for him, and we were faced with the prospect of paying him money we would not recoup or non-tendering him And getting nothing.

I have no problem with what Mike did, although I understand the attitude of those who do. It is clear to me that he got what he was able to get, And he was able to get more than nothing, so points for him. Regardless, you don’t judge somebody by one trade, and you really can’t yet judge the results of any trade he’s made.

If there wasn't a market for him, just..... keep him? You have control for that year? Move him to a team in the next season when spaces open up due to injury/regression/further trades. It's better than trading away anyone with a pulse to avoid paying the heavy weight of a 8.2 million dollar contract.

I have no issue with the reality of baseball teams: they are here to make money. I have a severe issue when it's believed that making money means maximizing profits at every turn.  The justification of trading Villar, their best player, who was slated to make less than 9 million, as a money move because they wouldn't recoup the dollars spent is beyond silly from practically every aspect.

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19 minutes ago, MountUrCastle said:

If there wasn't a market for him, just..... keep him? You have control for that year? Move him to a team in the next season when spaces open up due to injury/regression/further trades. It's better than trading away anyone with a pulse to avoid paying the heavy weight of a 8.2 million dollar contract.

I have no issue with the reality of baseball teams: they are here to make money. I have a severe issue when it's believed that making money means maximizing profits at every turn.  The justification of trading Villar, their best player, who was slated to make less than 9 million, as a money move because they wouldn't recoup the dollars spent is beyond silly from practically every aspect.

I’m not really the person to have this conversation with, because for me, he’s one of the most frustrating players I have ever watched. Sometimes what he did with the ball on defense was akin to playing Hackey sack. It is a sad truth of human nature that frequently, the negative reaction to a sudden disappointment Is not compensated for by the positive reaction to a sudden success.

so I have no problem with that trade. But I also have no problem with it because if he had no value, he was going to have no value, So trading him would remain as difficult.

Besides, if we had kept Villar, we’d be missing out on at least Alberto’s surge and Iglesias’ defense.

We have to consider that one of the reasons they made the trade was that they expected Alberto to be good enough to compensate for Villar’s departure.

Remember that we signed Trumbo to that awful contract Because the organization had no faith in Mancini. We could’ve saved money hassle and defensive fiascoes if we had let Trumbo walk and handed the baton to trey.

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Rumors confirmed. Glad he is doing ok. Ruiz wrote about it in The Sun. Zimmerman was tested on July 8th and would have been on the initial player pool roster if not for the positive test.

Glad he is stretching it out. He could be a long reliever / rotation option in a couple weeks.

The boss man expects big things - 

Wonder whether we will see him this year. He has to be added to the 40-man roster this off-season or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. Seems like a foregone conclusion that he will be added.

 

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3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Lowther finally added to player pool. He had an oblique injury, which kept him off.

I'm sure the Hill People will be excited.

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