FV dropped from 50 to 45 and ceiling dropped from 55 to 50. That feels a little harsh to me. But based on the write-up, it seems Tony heard some things about Diaz’s camp that were a bit more negative than what has been stated publicly.
I think Diaz is a guy who could exceed his projection if things go right for him.
One name I haven’t seen listed yet is Hunter Harvey, who is still rookie-eligible. He was ranked 10th last year. For now I will assume he’s been downgraded after being somewhat less impressive in 2020 than in 2019, but it’s also possible that Tony didn’t realize he was still eligible.
The next two on last year’s list were Wells and Rom. That’s not a pairing here, but Zimmermann did reach the majors and didn’t embarrass himself, so Wells and Zimmermann is possible. Assuming Tony meant what he said about not shuffling the order of incumbent players who weren’t in Bowie, McKenna-Hall and Hall-Mayo aren’t possibilities since there are several incumbent players ahead of Hall.
That leaves Baumler-Mayo or Mayo-Baumler. The latter seems more likely since Mayo was the higher pick and got the higher bonus.
As between Mayo-Baumler and Wells-Zimmermann, I think Tony will go with the younger pairing with more upside. Wells and Zimmermann are both 5th starter/swingman types. And my gut tells me that Wells not being invited to Bowie is a bad sign for him. So I’m going Mayo-Baumler.
I think it all depends on how much his deception plays up. He throws a little harder than Milone and his release point and extension on his release helps it play up as well.
I like him, but was disappointed that Elias didn't have him at the auxiliary camp.