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MurphDogg

Orioles make an offer to Yasiel Puig. UPDATE: Puig to sign with Braves Tests POSITIVE for COVID 19

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If you think we're buying Puig with the hopes of flipping him for good prospects, I have ocean front property in Arizona to sell you.

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Just now, gtown said:

What do you really mean by "breaking even?" Payroll is low. I'm guessing Puig's prorated salary would be between $1 -2 million. 

This is akin to paying x dollars for a mystery prospect from a grab bag. Yes, it's a gamble, but for a rebuilding team, the goal is to accumulate prospects. 

I mean getting a fair return on the investment.

Spend 1.7M get 1.7M worth of return.

Although honestly the return should be higher since the O's have the risk of not being able to trade him and being on the hook for his whole salary.

Just seems like a poorly thought out plan, I'd rather take on a bad contract now than hope to flip a player later in the season.

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3 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well in addition to the Smith-level guys Stewart, Mountcastle, McKenna( isn’t he close enough?) Mullins, and I’m drawing a blank after them, but that’s enough. We got 2 and one spot remaining for a corner and a backup. I have reservations about both MC and Stewart, but what better time to throw them into the fray than right now?

Puig won’t bring anything, and will take playing time away from guys who might be part of the future.

its much better to treat this season like an extended spring, and see what our guys can do.

Have you seen McKenna at the plate since he left Frederick? He is a long shot to be a contributor at the major league level. I wouldn't take Stewart or Mullins into consideration when making moves either.

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Just now, DirtyBird said:

Have you seen McKenna at the plate since he left Frederick? He is a long shot to be a contributor at the major league level. I wouldn't take Stewart or Mullins into consideration when making moves either.

I think it's too early to cut bait on Stewart.  He was hurt last year.

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There's also the layer of thawing the iceberg of good free agent's perception of the organization, inching towards Miguel Tejada: The Next Generation somewhere down the line.

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Of the players in camp, there is currently 1 MLB quality outfielder with a chance to make the roster, Austin Hays. DJ Stewart could be an MLB quality outfielder, maybe 25-50 percent chance if you are being generous, as could Mountcastle but he has no chance to make the OD roster.

Williams, Mullins, and Wilkerson aren't at that level and neither is Dwight Smith, Jr., who is not currently in camp.

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6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I mean getting a fair return on the investment.

Spend 1.7M get 1.7M worth of return.

Although honestly the return should be higher since the O's have the risk of not being able to trade him and being on the hook for his whole salary.

Just seems like a poorly thought out plan, I'd rather take on a bad contract now than hope to flip a player later in the season.

There is brand value in having actual Major League quality players on your Major League team, although it is tough to quantify to a dollar amount, and it is probably less with no fans in the stands.

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1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

There is brand value in having actual Major League quality players on your Major League team, although it is tough to quantify to a dollar amount, and it is probably less with no fans in the stands.

He sure isn't going to sell any tickets.

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5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I mean getting a fair return on the investment.

Spend 1.7M get 1.7M worth of return.

Although honestly the return should be higher since the O's have the risk of not being able to trade him and being on the hook for his whole salary.

Just seems like a poorly thought out plan, I'd rather take on a bad contract now than hope to flip a player later in the season.

How do you judge the "return" for a prospect? That's a serious question. There is not really an open market for prospects, unless you consider international slot money. You get prospects primarily through the draft and the the international pool. Both are capped.

It's not like they can use the $1.7M to go buy a prospect instead. 

For a low payroll team, I like the risk, especially this year when injuries + COVID + opting out can put teams in a pinch. What else could they do with that kind of money?

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Puig made 9.7m last season.   So the O's would offer him 3 -3.5m for two months hoping they could trade him for prospects?

Five million for two years. 

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1 minute ago, gtown said:

How do you judge the "return" for a prospect? That's a serious question. There is not really an open market for prospects, unless you consider international slot money. You get prospects primarily through the draft and the the international pool. Both are capped.

It's not like they can use the $1.7M to go buy a prospect instead. 

For a low payroll team, I like the risk, especially this year when injuries + COVID + opting out can put teams in a pinch. What else could they do with that kind of money?

By projecting the future performance of the player.

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23 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Of the players in camp, there is currently 1 MLB quality outfielder with a chance to make the roster, Austin Hays. DJ Stewart could be an MLB quality outfielder, maybe 25-50 percent chance if you are being generous, as could Mountcastle but he has no chance to make the OD roster.

Williams, Mullins, and Wilkerson aren't at that level and neither is Dwight Smith, Jr., who is not currently in camp.

I think this is more their thought process. With Santander out, they don't feel like they have good outfield depth.

Someone's gotta play RF on opening day. 

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1 minute ago, Lucky_13 said:

I think this is more their thought process. With Santander out, they don't feel like they have good outfield depth.

Someone's gotta play RF on opening day. 

There is always a waiver wire guy you can throw out there.

 

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10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

By projecting the future performance of the player.

No. All prospects, even first round picks are gambles. But this isn't even like a draft pick. It's not rotisserie baseball. A rebuilding team should be looking at all avenues to add prospects.

You have a hypothetical $1.7 M. You have a chance to gamble on the potential of a prospect. How else could you use that money to get a prospect? Again, the draft and pool money are capped. So you could take the risk as a low payroll team. It might work out, it might not. If you don't spend the money you get nothing. 

I like the risk. 

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