Yeah, I don't consider returning a Rule 5 guy to be a fail. In fact, it is the most likely result, league-wide. I really consider taking Rule 5 shots at guys to be a matter of nothing ventured, nothing gained. Also, IMO, picking up stop gap players and have them turn out to be exactly that isn't really a fail, either. Sure, I'd like to see us strike gold on one of these guys, but I can't say that I expect it to happen. I'm more interested in seeing how guys we acquire like Vavra and Smith turn out.
So? The guys we brought up for a chance, every guy brought up for a chance, as opposed to bringing up “because he is ready,” is by definition being given an opportunity that he doesn’t necessarily deserve. We risk nothing by bringing him up.
I’m a musician, and I can’t judge a piece without paying it once. Maybe not all the way through, but gotta sit down and play it. Now, it might be by a terrible or unknown composer, and some would say,”it’s by Danzi, it sucks.” Well, so? Maybe it does suck. Danzi was a mediocre composer. But maybe it doesn’t suck. Maybe it’s worthwhile, as recital filler, or as a rare gem from a mediocrity. But if I play it, I’ll know.
As another surprisingly similar example, the widow of a local cellist gave me some of her late husband’s music, including an untouched piece he bought 50+ years ago. So rare there’s only one lonely YouTube audio, and the music is long out of print and the publisher is itself long out of business. I played it and said, “this is an incredible piece.” And it is. So this piece is Yaz. The previous owner never bothered to play it, and I did, and I get the benefit. If he’d played lit, maybe he’d have hated it, maybe not. But he never gave it a chance.
Interesting analysis. Not sure I agree on all points but from my perspective I look at the Elias-Sig regime as a definite 5 year project and as I have stated before I don't start grading until after 2021 and possibly 2022 as one full season and 60 games is no legitimate yardstick. Not having minor league baseball is a definite setback but the fact our Farm System is graded #8 is big plus and the FO deserves some credit here. In summary, rebuilding a 47 win team is going to be a major task and it's going to take several years to turn the corner. I think we all need patience and lots of it realistically.