Considering there’s only been about 50 pitchers over the last 30 years with a higher rWAR than Burnett (28.6), I’d sign up for that outcome in a heartbeat. He was a bit of a late bloomer, though. Only 12.0 rWAR prior to free agency.
I don’t think he was rushed. He was an advanced college arm. His 2014 season, the year after he was initially called up and his first relatively full season in the majors saw him have a 3.57 ERA. His ERA was 4.25 the next year but his K rate and BB rates was improved.
Now, where they did mess up is how they kept jerking him around, yo yo’ing him up and down, etc...I would have been fine to leave him down all of 2013 and he did need to refine his secondary pitches but I think there is a difference between needing more work and rushing.
To me, rushing would have been putting DL Hall in the majors in 2019.
I am just not sure I believe in the concept of rushing a highly drafted college player. They should be ready quickly if they were a top pick.
HS players are different, especially pitchers.
By the way, on reflection I think my 8.1 H/9 criterion for dominance was too easy. I’d though major league average was around 9.0, but it’s actually 8.4. Eastern League was 8.0 in 2019.
So make it 7.5.
I think his ceiling is a #1. That type of stuff from the left hand side is rare, although not as rare as it used to be.
Still, I think if his command and control turn out very good, he has an ace ceiling.
I think his likely outcome, if he stays a starter, is a 3/4 starter because of his command. Maybe almost like AJ Burnett. Good pitcher but never as good as he should be.
It’s just one of those expressions people toss out a bit carelessly. I don’t think anyone would suggest that promotions be limited to those who meet my definition. But the converse probably is true: if a pitcher has had 10+ starts and is meeting those criteria, you have to question why he’s not getting promoted.