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drjohnnyfeva

Win predictions?

By drjohnnyfeva, in Orioles Talk

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Roll Tide    Bird

Roll Tide
Posted
8 hours ago, bpilktree said:

We will have to lose the next 43 games to get to that.  

Yeah....I figured someone would call me on it sooner or later! 😂 

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Roll Tide    Bird

Roll Tide
Posted
On 7/23/2020 at 1:15 PM, webbrick2010 said:

Wow just looked at the roster

Has to be the worst opening day roster in O's history?

Last years team minus Villar and Mancini.

Iglesias will be an improvement over Richie Martin

But wow is that the worst pitching staff in ML history?

16-44

 

Per Roch

 

Quote

The doubters keep fueling the Orioles. Haters gonna motivate.

 

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SteveA    Bird

SteveA
Posted
On 7/22/2020 at 10:34 AM, Moose Milligan said:

This is a dog$#%@ team.  15 wins.  

 

On 7/22/2020 at 3:10 PM, Roll Tide said:

10-50

 

On 7/23/2020 at 1:15 PM, webbrick2010 said:

Wow just looked at the roster
Has to be the worst opening day roster in O's history?
Last years team minus Villar and Mancini.
Iglesias will be an improvement over Richie Martin
But wow is that the worst pitching staff in ML history?

16-44

So far three people's predictions have been surpassed.   The next few wins will start eliminating more and more people.  

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DrungoHazewood    Bird

DrungoHazewood
Posted
7 hours ago, SteveA said:

So far three people's predictions have been surpassed.   The next few wins will start eliminating more and more people.  

I'm going down shortly, I said 17.  I think I both got unlucky (in projecting, not for the Orioles) and underestimated the impact of using like 8 fresh pitchers every game because of expanded rosters.  Despite two of their primary starters being horrific and several others not exactly lighting the world afire, the team ERA is a run better than last year.

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Frobby    Bird Bird Bird Bird Bird

Frobby
Posted

I don’t see that I made a prediction in this thread, but here’s what I said in another thread:

Overall, I don’t see that a fluke scenario where we play .400+ baseball for 60 games has much chance to occur.    It hasn’t happened any time in the last two years, and I think the talent level on this year’s team is probably the lowest it’s been when you factor in the Villar and Bundy trades and Mancini’s illness.     So, put me down for 20-40 or worse.  

Looks like I’ve got an excellent chance of being wrong.   

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SteveA    Bird

SteveA
Posted
2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'm going down shortly, I said 17.  I think I both got unlucky (in projecting, not for the Orioles) and underestimated the impact of using like 8 fresh pitchers every game because of expanded rosters.  Despite two of their primary starters being horrific and several others not exactly lighting the world afire, the team ERA is a run better than last year.

I'm not sure I understand this.  Overall runs per game is down a little bit this year (4.68 vs 4.83 last year).  Not real significant.  Are you saying that teams with bad pitching are somehow able to mask it and win more games than they should with the expanded roster?   Why are the Orioles doing a better job of this than, say, the Red Sox?  

I mean last year we were the 29th best team, give or take, and this year we are around 20th.  If we have somehow benefited from being able to hide bad pitching with an expanded roster, why have other teams failed to do this?

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maybenxtyr   

maybenxtyr
Posted

I was definitely wrong, and glad to be so. I'll never root against winning. I just didn't think they would bring up some of the younger players.

 

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SteveA    Bird

SteveA
Posted
On 7/22/2020 at 10:16 AM, jamalshw said:

I am a lot less optimistic than most it seems. The Orioles have one of the toughest (if not the toughest) schedules in the game. While the Sox's rotation is suspect, they still have a solid offense. The Yankees and Rays are both good. The Jays, I think, will be much improved. The only team the Orioles play that is not at least a solid squad is Miami. Add in Means and Harvey starting off with arm fatigue, no Mancini and a rotation that is sending Tommy Malone out on opening day (yes, I know that's due to circumstances)...

Overall, I will be happy if the team gets to 20 wins, but expect something more like 17-18 and wouldn't be that surprised if it came in under that. The team was 19-41 through the first 60 games last year and in 2018. 

 

On 7/22/2020 at 10:46 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

21 wins is a game better than last year's pace, and 57 wins over a full 162.

The midpoint of my projected distribution is 17 wins.

 

On 7/22/2020 at 10:59 AM, JR Oriole said:

I think 17-43 is what we are looking at, assuming the season plays out.  A lot of tough teams on our schedule. 

 

On 7/22/2020 at 1:23 PM, osfan83 said:

I think 18 is about right.....but as bad as the pitching is, 10 is not out of the question. 

 

On 7/22/2020 at 2:49 PM, Lucky_13 said:

Yeah that's likely one of the worst case scenarios.  But with how tough the schedule is, lack of pitching depth, and the front office's hesitation to promote even lower end pitching prospects like Akin, I can't see it going much better.  More like 16-18 wins. 

 

On 7/22/2020 at 2:53 PM, bpilktree said:

The Red Sox and Marlins are bad but the rest decent to very good.  I will go with 18-42. 

 

On 7/22/2020 at 3:11 PM, CarrRun49 said:

Need what you are drinking.  17 wins

 

On 7/23/2020 at 11:02 AM, Chuck A said:

16 or 17.  Tough schedule.

Friday night when we won our 17th game, three people were kicked off the island because their prediction had been surpassed.

Now two days later we have 19 wins, 8 more people bite the dust.

One more win means we will at least match our .333 win% from last year.   Two more wins means we will surpass it and have our second conecutive year of improved winning% under Elias/Hyde, and also that we will have hit the "over" on the preseason Vegas total which was either 20 or 20.5 depending on where you looked.

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Philip   

Philip
Posted
On 9/5/2020 at 7:37 AM, Frobby said:

LOL!    Yes, I’m wrong much of the time.    

Rule #1 of husbandhood: “when you’re wrong, apologize. When you’re right..wait... you’re never right.”

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Philip   

Philip
Posted

It seems I didn’t post a guess at all.  I was thinking 26-28, but I cant prove it without digging way too deep into my past comments, so I’ll just say I was hoping to win as many as possible, and I thought we were going to be good enough that I’m mildly disappointed at 4 under .500 right now.

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Moose Milligan    Bird Bird

Moose Milligan
Posted
On 9/5/2020 at 12:03 AM, SteveA said:

 

 

So far three people's predictions have been surpassed.   The next few wins will start eliminating more and more people.  

Happy to be wrong!

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