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drjohnnyfeva

Win predictions?

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On 9/5/2020 at 10:14 AM, SteveA said:

I'm not sure I understand this.  Overall runs per game is down a little bit this year (4.68 vs 4.83 last year).  Not real significant.  Are you saying that teams with bad pitching are somehow able to mask it and win more games than they should with the expanded roster?   Why are the Orioles doing a better job of this than, say, the Red Sox?  

I mean last year we were the 29th best team, give or take, and this year we are around 20th.  If we have somehow benefited from being able to hide bad pitching with an expanded roster, why have other teams failed to do this?

I'll admit to kind of thinking out loud and not looking anything up when I posted this.  But now looking it up, the 2019 Orioles starters had a 5.57 ERA and pitched 55% of the team's innings.  This year they have a 4.94 and are throwing 49% of the team's innings (Only about four teams have ever gotten more innings from relievers than starters, all recently, all presumably because of openers).  The relievers have an ERA nearly 2.00 runs/game better and are pitching quite a bit more.  That's basically all of the difference between this year's team and last. 

This year they're using 3.7 relievers/game, last year 3.2.

I can't tie the relievers' effectiveness to anything in particular, but basically the Orioles have hovered around .500 because their starters don't pitch much and the relievers are used more and are much better.

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6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'll admit to kind of thinking out loud and not looking anything up when I posted this.  But now looking it up, the 2019 Orioles starters had a 5.57 ERA and pitched 55% of the team's innings.  This year they have a 4.94 and are throwing 49% of the team's innings (Only about four teams have ever gotten more innings from relievers than starters, all recently, all presumably because of openers).  The relievers have an ERA nearly 2.00 runs/game better and are pitching quite a bit more.  That's basically all of the difference between this year's team and last. 

This year they're using 3.7 relievers/game, last year 3.2.

I can't tie the relievers' effectiveness to anything in particular, but basically the Orioles have hovered around .500 because their starters don't pitch much and the relievers are used more and are much better.

Very nice commentary now let me offer a supplemental hypothetical:

that condition has switched. We now have more solid starters, not necessarily 8-inning guys, but 6-7. Our pen, which is improved, will now be used less, Which will give Hyde more freedom to play matchups. So the pitching might have turned into a non-liability.

Meanwhile, with Iglesias back, the infield defense is solid again, and we have the freedom to sit Ruiz If desired.

In the OF, Centerfield provides defense but no offense, bunt singles notwithstanding, and the corners offer offense but not much defense, although they haven’t really been tested yet, and neither is Smith Jr.

I think this team is considerably improved over the start of the season. It could’ve been improved sooner with earlier call ups(the absence of which will always be a head scratcher.) but what we have is undeniably better and more exciting.

We have to 11-9 to finish .500. If the Jays only go 10-10, they finish at 32-28, so we have to go 13-7 to tie them(but we lose the tiebreaker) and 14-6 to pass them.

I don’t think we can do that, but maybe we can mess both the BJs and NYs enough that the Tigers can sneak in. And I’d be ok with that.

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On 7/23/2020 at 11:54 AM, OFFNY said:

o

32- 28

OR

32-27, with One Rainout

OR

32-26, with Two Rainouts

o

o

 

The Orioles need to go 13-7 the rest of the way for this pipe-dream to come to fruition ...... of 13-6 with 1 Rainout ...... or 13-5 with 2 Rainouts.

 

o

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On 7/23/2020 at 1:06 PM, Jagwar said:

I predict the O's will win every game in which they score more runs than the opponent. 

So far I'm spot on

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On 7/22/2020 at 11:16 AM, scOtt said:

I'll be generous and say 20.

Previously, by the time the Orioles won their 19th game last week, 11 people who predicted 18 or fewer games were eliminated from being right.

Tonight the Orioles won game #21, only one more person was eliminated.  scOtt was the only person to pick 19 or 20 wins.  So he is the 12th person eliminated.

The 21st win tonight was significant in two ways though: the Orioles have officially surpassed the Las Vegas betting total which was either 20 or 20.5 depending on what book you had.  Congratulations to everyone who cashed an over bet!

And with today's win the Elias/Hyde Orioles have clinched their second consecutive increase in winning %.  In 2018, the last year under DD&Buck, the Orioles were 47-115 (.290).  Last year under Hyde and Elias, they improved to 54-108 (.333).  Tonight's win guarantees they will improve on that .333 mark in 2020.

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On 9/14/2020 at 10:30 PM, SteveA said:

 

Previously, by the time the Orioles won their 19th game last week, 11 people who predicted 18 or fewer games were eliminated from being right.

Tonight the Orioles won game #21, only one more person was eliminated ...... scOtt was the only person to pick 19 or 20 wins. So he is the 12th person eliminated.

The 21st win tonight was significant in two ways, though: the Orioles have officially surpassed the Las Vegas betting total which was either 20 or 20.5 (depending on what book you had.) Congratulations to everyone who cashed an over bet !!!

And with today's win, the Elias/Hyde Orioles have clinched their second consecutive increase in winning %. In 2018, the last year under DD&Buck, the Orioles were 47-115 (.290.)  Last year under Hyde and Elias, they improved to 54-108 (.333.) Tonight's win guarantees they will improve on that .333 mark from 2020.

 

o

 

I don't think that the Orioles will reach my prediction of 32-28, but I would like to see them avoid the essential 100-loss mark ...... if they go 23-37 (.38333), that would be a tad higher than 62-100 (.38271.)

If they go 24-36 or 25-35 or 26-34, we can call them what frustrated Atlanta Braves fans used to call their team in the late 1970's ...... the best .400 team in baseball.

 

o

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9 hours ago, SteveA said:

Previously, by the time the Orioles won their 19th game last week, 11 people who predicted 18 or fewer games were eliminated from being right.

Tonight the Orioles won game #21, only one more person was eliminated.  scOtt was the only person to pick 19 or 20 wins.  So he is the 12th person eliminated.

The 21st win tonight was significant in two ways though: the Orioles have officially surpassed the Las Vegas betting total which was either 20 or 20.5 depending on what book you had.  Congratulations to everyone who cashed an over bet!

And with today's win the Elias/Hyde Orioles have clinched their second consecutive increase in winning %.  In 2018, the last year under DD&Buck, the Orioles were 47-115 (.290).  Last year under Hyde and Elias, they improved to 54-108 (.333).  Tonight's win guarantees they will improve on that .333 mark in 2020.

In both years, the O's found an amazing inefficiency to exploit: winning more games with increasingly weak rosters. This is mainly accomplished by continually trading away, letting go, or sidelining your best players. The first time it was Machado, Schoop, Jones, Britton, Brach, Cobb, and Gausman; the second time it was Cashner, Bundy, Villar, Mancini, and Givens. Winning with the Worst seems to be the Elias Way.

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2 hours ago, LA2 said:

In both years, the O's found an amazing inefficiency to exploit: winning more games with increasingly weak rosters. This is mainly accomplished by continually trading away, letting go, or sidelining your best players. The first time it was Machado, Schoop, Jones, Britton, Brach, Cobb, and Gausman, the second time Cashner, Bundy, Villar, Mancini, and Givens. Winning with the Worst seems to be the Elias Way.

Machado made Schoop better. I’m sure Schoop would agree and I am sure he misses playing with his friend. 
My opinion is addition by subtraction. The guys coming up have more fire in their belly and have something to prove. Less jaded, perhaps. Machado is the only one on that list that is a special talent. All of the others have equals or greater thans on the current 60 man. Britton at the top of his game might be the best argument otherwise, but Harvey may be right there if he stays healthy and refines a bit more. Only time will tell. 

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The Orioles are now 23-31.   A whole bunch of us picked 21 and have now been eliminated, as did people who picked 22, and the two people who picked a winning record.   Only a few people left who could be right:

On 7/22/2020 at 8:57 AM, canonfaz said:

Pitching massively struggles. I think we win 21 games. I hope we win 51 though!

 

On 7/22/2020 at 9:08 AM, BohKnowsBmore said:

I'm in the 20-22 camp

This thread could use a poll with bands of ~3 wins (or use winning pct bands)

 

On 7/22/2020 at 9:11 AM, LTO's said:

21 wins. 23 if Mancini was in the fold. I think if they were in the Central they'd win 25.

 

On 7/22/2020 at 11:12 AM, MDK02 said:

We’re going to surprise some teams.. you heard it here first...

31 wins.

 

 

 

On 7/22/2020 at 12:17 PM, SteveA said:

It will be tough with this schedule, but I'm pulling for 21 so we can keep the positive progression in winning percentage going.

 

On 7/23/2020 at 10:50 AM, drjohnnyfeva said:

I'm officially entering a vote of 21 wins.  I think the fact that we're so Division heavy really hurts us.

 

On 7/23/2020 at 11:08 AM, AnythingO's said:

If we play the full 60 I say 21 wins.

 

On 7/23/2020 at 11:12 AM, milbest77 said:

Harvey being out really stinks. I was looking for him to be a breakout closer. So, I’ll amend my pick to 21 wins instead of 23😢

 

On 7/23/2020 at 11:54 AM, OFFNY said:

o

 

32- 28

OR

32-27, with One Rainout

OR

32-26, with Two Rainouts

o

 

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There are only 3 people left who can be right:

On 7/22/2020 at 8:49 AM, interloper said:

They flirt with .500 all season. The team will surprise with a decent offense and defense, a capital G Good bullpen (really! other than Givens who will disappoint), and a rotation that hovers just under average. 

27 wins. 

 

On 7/22/2020 at 9:00 AM, milbest77 said:

I think 20 sounds about right. But, I’ll let my hair down and predict 23 wins. Bullpen, Hays, Santander, Iglesias are all bright spots. Starting pitching is, unsurprisingly, a dumpster fire. Davis is....well, Davis.

 

On 7/22/2020 at 3:25 PM, esmd said:

Assuming they play all 60 games, I'll guess 24 wins.

 

If we go 0-6, milbest77 will be exactly right.

If we go 1-5, esmd will be exactly right.

If we go 24, esmd will be closest.

If we go 3-3 or 5-1, interloper will be closest.

If we go 4-2, interloper will be exactly right.

If we go 6-0, interloper and mdk02 (who picked 31 wins) will tie for closest.

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Ultimately, while I enjoyed watching baseball and the O's, I don't think they made any great strides.  I like that we traded guys that belong on an MLB team, so that we can maybe give a roster spot to someone that MIGHT belong on a MLB team so that we can evaluate them.  I think we got good return.  Remains to be seen, tho.  As fun as it was to think, "What if this is the turning point season?"  Not so much, after all, but  I'm still excited about the future.

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It's hard to make "great strides" in 60 games.  But we saw the debut of Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer, and Zimmerman.  Along with extended playing time for Hays, Sisco, Scott, Tate and Harvey.  And improved pitching from Means late in the season and Santander early in the season.  All of that bodes well for the future.

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4 hours ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

Ultimately, while I enjoyed watching baseball and the O's, I don't think they made any great strides.  I like that we traded guys that belong on an MLB team, so that we can maybe give a roster spot to someone that MIGHT belong on a MLB team so that we can evaluate them.  I think we got good return.  Remains to be seen, tho.  As fun as it was to think, "What if this is the turning point season?"  Not so much, after all, but  I'm still excited about the future.

It really depends on how you define this. If you define it by winning percentage with the expectation we could be right around .500, then you are right, no great strides.

I, however, feel better about the team heading into 2021 than I did into 2020. I have been very happy with Krremer's starts. I like what I've seen from Akin who before this year was a possible bullpen piece in my eyes, but appears to have a chance as a back-end starter.

I like what I've seen from Mountcastle. I think we have found a few good bullpen options. I like how Mullins and Stewart look like pieces (albeit more role players given some issues). I was pleasantly surprised by what Santander was able to do before getting hurt. I feel really good about the outfield going forward. I was expecting Iglesias to essentially be Izturis, but he's been an offensive revelation. Both Severino and Sisco have at least looked like they could be serviceable catching options going forward.

I may have been too low on this team coming into 2020, but I have seen a lot more to make me excited about the future (2021 and beyond) than I expected to see.

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I agree with both of the above.  I wasn't knocking their progress, but as you say and as I said, it's hard to make "great" strides in 60 games.  They are better for having played and having given the up and comers a bit of a taste of the bigs.  I'm more enthusiastic about next year than I was at the start of this year, given what I've seen this year.

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On 9/20/2020 at 10:27 PM, SteveA said:

There are only 3 people left who can be right:

If we go 0-6, milbest77 will be exactly right.

If we go 1-5, esmd will be exactly right.

If we go 24, esmd will be closest.

If we go 3-3 or 5-1, interloper will be closest.

If we go 4-2, interloper will be exactly right.

If we go 6-0, interloper and mdk02 (who picked 31 wins) will tie for closest.

I'm sorry, I'm the only one guaranteed to be exactly right.   

On 7/23/2020 at 1:06 PM, Jagwar said:

I predict the O's will win every game in which they score more runs than the opponent. 

 

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