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drjohnnyfeva

Win predictions?

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On 9/14/2020 at 10:46 PM, OFFNY said:

o

 

I don't think that the Orioles will reach my prediction of 32-28, but I would like to see them avoid the essential 100-loss mark ...... if they go 23-37 (.38333), that would be a tad higher than 62-100 (.38271.)

If they go 24-36 or 25-35 or 26-34, we can call them what frustrated Atlanta Braves fans used to call their team in the late 1970's ...... the best .400 team in baseball.

 

o

o

 

The Orioles have mathematically avoided the (essential) 100-loss mark ...... they won their 24th game of the season tonight, with 3 still left to play.

 

o

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On 7/22/2020 at 11:12 AM, MDK02 said:

 

Were going to surprise some teams ...... you heard it here first ......

31 Wins.

 

 

 

On 7/23/2020 at 11:54 AM, OFFNY said:

o

32- 28

OR

32-27, with One Rainout

OR

32-26, with Two Rainouts

o

o

 

We believed ........ it didn't happen, but we believed.

 

o

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So in my initial post, I said that "...24 wins would be highly successful."  I think that was a little over stated in retrospect, but I think it's hard to envision what a percentage looks like in reality as that stat plays out thru a season...even a short season of 60 games  I will say, I think we learned a good deal about who we have, what they do, how they need to improve, and what we need to add.  That will go a long way to improving.

In so called real time, this was a 7 game win increase over last season if we average the performance over a full length season.  Not spectacular, but improvement.  I thought we were more competitive this year just from the eye/smell test, but that might have just been the placebo of having baseball as a nice diversion with the pandemic.  Which ever it was, I still enjoyed watching this team more this year and feel like they did play better than last year.

 

Congrats to esmd!  Closest to the retail price without going over! :)

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I don’t think I expressed a prediction in this thread, but I did in many others, and I picked 25!!!
( cough cough)

Id be happy to share, but I lost the link.

(exuant whistling innocently)

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25 minutes ago, Philip said:

 

I dont think that I expressed a prediction in this thread, but I did in many others, and I picked 25 !!!
(cough cough
.)

I'd be happy to share, but I lost the link.

(exuant whistling innocently.)

 

o

 

You alluded to the possibility of 25 wins for the Orioles in this post ......

 

o

On 8/4/2020 at 3:25 PM, Philip said:

 

I said in another comment somewhere that Mike doesnt care whether we win 45 or 50 games, but he certainly does care if we win 70. There was a little bit of hyperbole in that comment, but I just wonder if maybe its really accurate.

The equivalent of 70 wins would be ~26. That would probably leave us out of any playoff consideration, but would mess up our draft order for next year, conceivably leaving us out of the single-digit draft picks.

At the moment, I think that the last thing that Elias wants is on-field success.

I think that he (Elias) would much rather we win 15 games than 25. So I think that if we start to do well, hes going to trade off our successful players, less with a view to maximizing their trade value than to getting them off the team because theyre playing too well.

There are several players on this team who could conceivably participate in our next contender, but nobody whos a definite, so he wouldnt be damaging the future by (for instance) trading Alberto or Ruiz, and he wouldnt care as much about the return.

My question for the crowd is whether you think that this line of reasoning is accurate, or if you think that he would actually enjoy a genuine and unexpected successful Win-Loss record ??? Even if it meant a less desirable 1st-Round pick next year ???l

 

 

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10 hours ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

In so called real time, this was a 7 game win increase over last season if we average the performance over a full length season.  Not spectacular, but improvement.  I thought we were more competitive this year just from the eye/smell test, but that might have just been the placebo of having baseball as a nice diversion with the pandemic.  Which ever it was, I still enjoyed watching this team more this year and feel like they did play better than last year.

How are you arriving at 7 game increase?   25-35 projects to 67.5 wins over 162 games.    That’s 13.5 games better than in 2019.

Honestly, I think that overstates the amount by which we improved, but that’s the math.

 

 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How are you arriving at 7 game increase?   25-35 projects to 67.5 wins over 162 games.    That’s 13.5 games better than in 2019.

Honestly, I think that overstates the amount by which we improved, but that’s the math.

 

 

 

 

Going into what would have been a normal season, I felt that team could win 65ish games with the potential for more if the young players came up and performed well.

This team winning 70+ games would have been possible imo.

To win 25 games this year, with all the roster turnover and bringing up these guys with almost no upper minors experience and a lack of playing time this year early on, was pretty damn good for this organization.

Hyde deserves some MOY votes.

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14 hours ago, OFFNY said:

 

 

o

 

We believed ........ it didn't happen, but we believed.

 

o

We weren't far off.. still, we had a chance.

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7 hours ago, Frobby said:

How are you arriving at 7 game increase?   25-35 projects to 67.5 wins over 162 games.    That’s 13.5 games better than in 2019.

Honestly, I think that overstates the amount by which we improved, but that’s the math.

 

 

 

 

You're correct.  I was basing it off of a .400 winning percentage (24-36) which is 10-11+ over last year.  The actual winning percentage for the year was .416666667 which makes your 13.5 game improvement correct.  I think I transposed the 7 games from an earlier post I was referring to... idk.  Your numbers are correct.

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