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What if this is the next O's contending team?

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Will we need him?  Yea I would think so.

Will Elias give those young arms a chance to thrive without signing someone like Stroman?  Sure, I could see that.

I don’t think he should though.

 

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4 hours ago, SteveA said:

This could be the weekend our realistic chance to make the playoffs ends, or becomes real.

It hasn't been well publicized, but there will be no one game playoffs on Monday, September 28.   Ties will not be broken on the field as they traditionally are.

Tiebreakers will be used instead.   Head to head will be the primary tiebreaker, then division record.

Toronto has already clinched the head to head series against us.   So although they are 3.5 games ahead of us, and 3 in the loss column, it is really like they are 4 games ahead of us with just 17 or 18 to play.  Because if we tie, they finish ahead of us.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are 1.5 games ahead of us, just 1 in the loss column.  And we are 3-3 against them.   If we were to lose 3 of 4 or worse in this series, we would be down at least 3 in the loss column, but they would have won the season series, so essentially we would be 4 back with 13 or 14 to play.   Very tough to overcome.

So if we lose this series, we are probably out of contention.

If we split the series, we would still just be 1.5 back of them, 1 in the loss column, and we would be 5-5 against them.   So it would come down to division record.  We would be 13-16 in division, with 11 games left (5 vs TB, 3 vs Bos, 3 vs Tor).   The Yankees would be 15-15, with 10 left (7 vs Tor, 3 vs Bos).   So they would have that tiebreaker, even if we made up that extra game to them to force a tie.   With two weeks left in the season we'd probably ahve to lose TWO fewer games than the Yankees and finish ahead of them, unless we lost one more and they did better in NL games and worse in ALE games than we did.   But we'd certainly be in it.

If we win the series 3-1, we would be 0.5 games AHEAD of the Yankees, including 1 in the loss column, and we would ahve beaten them 6 out of 10 times.   So effectively we'd be TWO games up on them because of the tiebreak.

So this series is HUGE.   Lose it, and we are not only at least 3.5 games back of the Yankees with 2 weeks left, but they would have the tiebreak.   It would be pretty much over.

Split the series, and we would still have a shot, though a bit of a long shot.   A game back in the loss column but they would likely have the tiebreak on division record so we'd effectively have to make up 2 games in 2 weeks.  

Win the series, and we are ahead of them AND with the tiebreak, so so that half game lead would almost be like a 2 game lead with two weeks to go.

The stakes are high in the Bronx!

Stakes are high in the Bronx.  And if they survive that its the Braves and Rays.  Very, very tough.

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17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Stakes are high in the Bronx.  And if they survive that its the Braves and Rays.  Very, very tough.

I’m not worried about the Rays. By the time we meet them, they’ll have the division sewn up, and because of the seeding, they’ll likely be able to rest their starters. They won’t be pushovers, but I think we can reasonably expect 3 of 5.

The last series against the Jays won’t really matter, because we-and the Jays-will have done well and knocked the Yankees out, or we will have done badly, and the Yankees will have knocked us out, so either way, the Jays series probably won’t matter too much.
I certainly agree with @SteveA that the Yankees are it. If we don’t take the series 3-1, we’re toast. Even a split gains no ground, and loses time. 3-1 or fold tents.

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18 games remain. If we go 10-8, that puts us only .500 for the season. The Yankees have 17 games left. If they go 10-7, they finish 32-30. So if the Yankees win 10, we have to win 13. 13-5? Nah, not gonna happen.

We have to hope the Yankees totally collapse against us and the Jays.

Thats why last nights loss was so discouraging to me. We should have won, and we needed to win.

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7 hours ago, Philip said:

I’m not worried about the Rays. By the time we meet them, they’ll have the division sewn up, and because of the seeding, they’ll likely be able to rest their starters. They won’t be pushovers, but I think we can reasonably expect 3 of 5.

The last series against the Jays won’t really matter, because we-and the Jays-will have done well and knocked the Yankees out, or we will have done badly, and the Yankees will have knocked us out, so either way, the Jays series probably won’t matter too much.
I certainly agree with @SteveA that the Yankees are it. If we don’t take the series 3-1, we’re toast. Even a split gains no ground, and loses time. 3-1 or fold tents.


That assumes the starting pitching holds up. I like what’ve I’ve seen from Kremer and Akin. You can expect a quality start from Cobb when he’s healthy. But, to pencil in 3 of 5 with this rotation is a risky proposition at best.

Speaking of Cobb....Did they ever announce his injury? If he failed a COVID test, I don’t think it hinders his trade value in the offseason. I think it does tremendously if it was almost anything else. 

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KEVIN BROWN: ) The Orioles are 0-17 in games in which they have scored 3 runs or less.

 

o

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21 hours ago, OFFNY said:

 

KEVIN BROWN: ) The Orioles are 0-17 in games in which they have scored 3 runs or less.

 

o

o

 

0-18, now.

 

o

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On 9/16/2020 at 9:33 PM, OFFNY said:

 

KEVIN BROWN: ) The Orioles are 0-17 in games in which they have scored 3 runs or less.

 

o

 

 

On 9/17/2020 at 7:09 PM, OFFNY said:

o

 

0-18, now.

 

o

o

 

(vs. D-RAYS, 9/20)

 

The Orioles finally won a game in which their offense scored 3 runs or less ...... they are now 1-20 in such contests for the 2020 season.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=401226461

 

o

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o

 

(SEPTEMBER 20th)

 

While the offense has certainly been struggling as of late, the starting pitching for the Orioles has been rather good.

Overall, the ERA's of the Orioles' starters over the last 3 seasons have been ........ 

 

 

2018: llllll 5.48 llllll (15th Out of 15th in the AL)

2019: llllll 5.57 llllll (14th Out of 15th in the AL)

2020: llllll 4.83 llllll (8th ll.Out of 15th in the AL)

 

 

SOURCE: ) Steve Melewski

 

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/09/as-the-offense-struggles-the-starting-pitching-continues-to-impress.html

 

o

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On 9/11/2020 at 6:21 AM, Roll Tide said:


That assumes the starting pitching holds up. I like what’ve I’ve seen from Kremer and Akin. You can expect a quality start from Cobb when he’s healthy. But, to pencil in 3 of 5 with this rotation is a risky proposition at best.

Speaking of Cobb....Did they ever announce his injury? If he failed a COVID test, I don’t think it hinders his trade value in the offseason. I think it does tremendously if it was almost anything else. 

It was a protocol injury. I assume a contact or false positive.  

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44 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

(SEPTEMBER 20th)

 

While the offense has certainly been struggling as of late, the starting pitching for the Orioles has been rather good.

Overall, the ERA of the Orioles' starters over the last 3 seasons have been ........ 

 

 

2018: llllll 5.48 llllll (15th Out of 15th in the AL)

2019: llllll 5.57 llllll (14th Out of 15th in the AL)

2020: llllll 4.83 llllll (8th ll.Out of 15th in the AL)

 

 

SOURCE: ) Steve Melewski

 

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/09/as-the-offense-struggles-the-starting-pitching-continues-to-impress.html

 

o

This points out and proves that there is steady improvement and yet, there is room to keep growing.

Clearly, IMO, Elias has a plan and working it.

I doubt if he was hired to do a half baked rebuild.

 

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2 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

(SEPTEMBER 20th)

 

While the offense has certainly been struggling as of late, the starting pitching for the Orioles has been rather good.

Overall, the ERA's of the Orioles' starters over the last 3 seasons have been ........ 

 

 

2018: llllll 5.48 llllll (15th Out of 15th in the AL)

2019: llllll 5.57 llllll (14th Out of 15th in the AL)

2020: llllll 4.83 llllll (8th ll.Out of 15th in the AL)

 

 

SOURCE: ) Steve Melewski

 

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/09/as-the-offense-struggles-the-starting-pitching-continues-to-impress.html

 

o

 

 

1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:

 

This points out and proves that there is steady improvement and yet, there is room to keep growing.

Clearly, IMO, Elias has a plan and id working it.

I doubt that he was hired to do a half-baked rebuild.

 

o

 

The sign-stealing scandal aside, perhaps the Orioles franchise will someday soon emulate what was done by Jim Crane and Jeff Luhnow with the Astros ......

 

(JUNE of 2013)

 

 

 

o

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5 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

(SEPTEMBER 20th)

 

While the offense has certainly been struggling as of late, the starting pitching for the Orioles has been rather good.

Overall, the ERA's of the Orioles' starters over the last 3 seasons have been ........ 

 

 

2018: llllll 5.48 llllll (15th Out of 15th in the AL)

2019: llllll 5.57 llllll (14th Out of 15th in the AL)

2020: llllll 4.83 llllll (8th ll.Out of 15th in the AL)

 

 

SOURCE: ) Steve Melewski

 

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/09/as-the-offense-struggles-the-starting-pitching-continues-to-impress.html

 

o

Does that include the guys who are no longer with us?Does that include the guys who are no longer with us?

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38 minutes ago, Philip said:

 

Does that include the guys who are no longer with us ???

 

o

 

I'm not sure.

That's a good question.

 

o

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