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wildcard

What if this is the next O's contending team?

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3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Its pretty debatable whether the Red Sox and Blue Jays rotation are any better.

No it’s not.

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It's not.  If Cobb and Leblanc keep pitching alright then they'll be traded.  Same with any of the veteran guys in the bullpen. 

I'll give the team credit they play very hard but if the veteran pitchers get traded the staff becomes very young and will have growing pains.  If the start of the season has shown me anything so far, there's a possibility they found  diamonds in the rough with Rio, Alberto, and some of the bullpen guys like Sulser, Lakins, even Scott has looked better. 

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To contend you generally need to be above average in several areas. This team may not be bottom of the barrel, especially with the chaos of the 2020 season leveling the playing field a bit, but they're still below average across the board. 

The most encouraging thing to me in one week of games is that Santander and Alberto appear not to be one-year wonders. 

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For this year, yes the O's do stand a good chance to compete for a playoff berth.  I haven't seen mentioned the wild card (pun intended) in all of this --- we may see more opportunities like this coming week against a depleted Marlins team due to COVID. Not unreasonable to think the O's can go 3-2 in the next five games (including today vs. TB).  7-5 through 20% of the season where 8 teams make the playoffs would be solid.

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Just now, beantownrefugee said:

For this year, yes the O's do stand a good chance to compete for a playoff berth.  I haven't seen mentioned the wild card (pun intended) in all of this --- we may see more opportunities like this coming week against a depleted Marlins team due to COVID. Not unreasonable to think the O's can go 3-2 in the next five games (including today vs. TB).  7-5 through 20% of the season where 8 teams make the playoffs would be solid.

Good chance compared to a normal year.  Not a good chance compared to an actually talented team.  Right now they have a low single digit chance to make the playoffs, which is a lot better than the zero percent chance they would normally have.  But it's still not going to happen.

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All's I can say about this is on the internet in subject of "Because of a 60 game season which team could become a surprise team and Media darling team " ........Orioles where mentioned.

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

This is not our next contending team.   Could it fluke into a .500ish season and have a shot at making a 16-team playoff?    I wouldn’t rule that out completely, and I’d enjoy it, but I don’t think that makes them a contending team by my definition.    

Trading a pitcher like Richard Bleier is never a radical move, regardless of when it happens.    I liked the guy but he’s hardly an integral piece for a contending team.    On a good team he might be your 5th/6th best option out of the bullpen.
 

If a team makes the playoffs they are a contender. My definition.

When Bleier is healthy he has an ERA under 2.00.    I don't think many teams have 4 or 5 relievers better than that.

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The offense so far this year is 15th overall by WAR. Middling at best. 10th in wRC+, which is cool. It's early. K% is surprisingly low; fourth best in the league. 16th best for BB%.

On the bright side, the bullpen is actually fourth, if you can believe it. The bullpen ERA is extremely inflated, though, I think it will normalize. BUT, early returns have been okay. Top five in K/9, which is great.

The starting pitching is bottom five. Too many homeruns. That's really the telling story about this club. Without starting pitching you have nothing. No shot in the playoffs, if you can get there at all.

This team is probably better than I'd imagined, but I'd be impressed if they had a .500 season.

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13 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

The offense so far this year is 15th overall by WAR. Middling at best. 10th in wRC+, which is cool. It's early. K% is surprisingly low; fourth best in the league. 16th best for BB%.

On the bright side, the bullpen is actually fourth, if you can believe it. The bullpen ERA is extremely inflated, though, I think it will normalize. BUT, early returns have been okay. Top five in K/9, which is great.

The starting pitching is bottom five. Too many homeruns. That's really the telling story about this club. Without starting pitching you have nothing. No shot in the playoffs, if you can get there at all.

This team is probably better than I'd imagined, but I'd be impressed if they had a .500 season.

Probably will not have to be much better than .500 to make the playoffs with 16 teams getting in.

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5 hours ago, Slappy said:

The 60 game and extra playoff format is key, and turns small sample sizes into important details. All it takes is one good month and one .500-ish month and we are playing postseason ball. In a full season we’d be exposed but we’ve already faced the best pitchers on the two best teams in our division and are still standing...

Yes. Expanded playoffs means a hot streak that would normally not mean much might just get it done. After living through 89 I will never say never about an Os team. 

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14 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

Yes. Expanded playoffs means a hot streak that would normally not mean much might just get it done. After living through 89 I will never say never about an Os team. 

That 89 team sure made things interesting !

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Of our position group,

C- Sisco/Severino.  Sisco no.  Severino has a decent shot, if he keeps up production at the plate, because his defense is lacking.  We are obviously looking at Rutschman  as the long term plan but a team always needs two catchers and we don't know how quickly Rutschman  is going to get here and play regularly.  Possibly Severino could win the starting role or platoon while Rustchman is brought along

1B - Mancini when he comes back, otherwise big hole.  

2B - Alberto.  Team control until 2023.  Pretty much locked in as regular 2B.

SS - Iglesias - one year deal with team option for 2021.  He's been raking but he likely gets swapped for prospects at some point before next year.  Velasquez no as he doesn't hit well.

3B - Ruiz. Team control until 2025.  Potential future starter.needs to keep  up production

LF - DSJ possible. He was OPS in the 800s in Toronto.  Fell off last year but has OPS around 800 this year.  DJ Stewart not looking too good. 

CF - Hays/Mullins   Hays had a great year last year but has started out slow this year.  Team control until 2026.   Mullins is almost strictly a pinch runner/backup.

RF- Santander.  Coming along fairly well. Team control until 2025.

DH - Nunez.  As he can't play the field well, it is hard to justify keeping him long term, unless he really started to rake at the plate whcih I find unlikely,. 

So of the position group, I'd say there's 5 maybe 6 guys who will be part of the long term plan.   Thats actually fairly promising, but we will definitely have to fill some holes.

Outside of Means, our starting rotation is older guys on short term contracts LeBlanc/Milone/Cobb/Wojo.  Cobb gets traded if he keeps pitching well.  Other guys are stopgaps.  They may play for a year or two more.  So we'll basically need four new starters by 2022, and thats assuming Means is there.

We have a few young bullpen arms such as Castro/Lakins/Scott.  Givens is 30, but has one more year of arb left.   After that, not sure if we will resign him.  Other guys are older.

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20 minutes ago, waroriole said:

That’s what people said in 2012. 

Have to admit, I thought it was a mirage until Chris Davis pitched like Steve Carlton.

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