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wildcard

What if this is the next O's contending team?

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7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Not by ERA.    Everyone goes ga-ga over strikeouts but a pitcher that can pitch to contact and get quick outs is very valuable if the team has a good defense.

That defense doesn't help a lot with the rate balls have been going over the fence the last few years.

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13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Which the Os don’t, especially in the OF.

Bleier isn’t a sub 2 ERA guy even if he did it in a SSS.

Hes a serviceable guy that can provide you some innings and value when he’s cheap.  That’s good.  He’s nothing more than that.

Sounds like you are in denial.    Bleier was a   below 2.00 ERA pitcher in the majors for 2016-2018.  Look it up.   He had a lat and shoulder injuries be begin 2019 and was never really healthy.   This season he is back to his  2016-2018 form.

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2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sounds like you are in denial.    Bleier was a   below 2.00 ERA pitcher in the majors for 2016-2018.  Look it up.   He had a lat and shoulder injuries be begin 2019 and was never really healthy.   This season he is back to his  2016-2018 form.

Nah, I’m good.  I’m not overvaluing a guy based on a SSS.  
 

I do like the ground balls and walk rate...and I do like that he can throw multiple innnings but 2 of the 3 years you talked about were very SSS.  Like you said, over about 100 innings, he was a sub 2 ERA guy.  That doesn’t mean that is the level of pitcher he will be for a sustained period of time.

Now, I will say that because he has had some level of success, I would hope that Elias didn’t just dump him for nothing.  That move wouldn’t make sense at all but I don’t think he did that.

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16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Not by ERA.    Everyone goes ga-ga over strikeouts but a pitcher that can pitch to contact and get quick outs is very valuable if the team has a good defense.

ERA is not terribly predictive, especially when its not supported by peripherals.

In the last decade there have been 32 pitchers with 100+ innings and a K rate under 5.00.  Their median ERA is about 4.80.  Pitching to soft contact is not really a thing.  Everyone goes gaga over strikeouts because it works.

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Now, I will say that because he has had some level of success, I would hope that Elias didn’t just dump him for nothing.  That move wouldn’t make sense at all but I don’t think he did that.

I assume Elias picked Bleier to give to the Marlins because he thought he could leverage his ERA-FIP difference for a little better return knowing it was unlikely to continue.  Not that the Marlin's GM wouldn't see that, but maybe worth a little...

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3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Nah, I’m good.  I’m not overvaluing a guy based on a SSS.  
 

I do like the ground balls and walk rate...and I do like that he can throw multiple innnings but 2 of the 3 years you talked about were very SSS.  Like you said, over about 100 innings, he was a sub 2 ERA guy.  That doesn’t mean that is the level of pitcher he will be for a sustained period of time.

Now, I will say that because he has had some level of success, I would hope that Elias didn’t just dump him for nothing.  That move wouldn’t make sense at all but I don’t think he did that.

I am not talking about a sustained period.  I am talking about now.

I have no problem with Elias trading a 33 year old pitcher off a rebuilding team.  I just think the timing is bad.  He should have waited a few weeks to see if the team contends for a playoff spot.    Its not a good idea to trade effective pitchers off a playoff team.  If the team faltered in the next few weeks then make the trade.  If the team contends Bleier could have been valuable to the O's.

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12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sounds like you are in denial.    Bleier was a   below 2.00 ERA pitcher in the majors for 2016-2018.  Look it up.  

ERA is a combination of luck/random variation, defense, park and skill.  Sometimes in small numbers of innings one of those components has outsized impact on the total.  That is very unlikely to continue in the long run.

When a pitcher has an ERA dramatically lower than his FIP it's a near certainty that his ERA going forward will be closer to his FIP than his past ERA.

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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I just think the timing is bad.  He should have waited a few weeks to see if the team contends for a playoff spot.    Its not a good idea to trade effective pitchers off a playoff team.  If the team faltered in the next few weeks then make the trade.  If the team contends Bleier could have been valuable to the O's.

Elias is not going to make long-term decisions on the makeup of the team based on SSS noise.  When a .300 or .350 team plays .625 ball for a week that's static, it's not data.

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10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I assume Elias picked Bleier to give to the Marlins because he thought he could leverage his ERA-FIP difference for a little better return knowing it was unlikely to continue.  Not that the Marlin's GM wouldn't see that, but maybe worth a little...

Yea I think so too.  We aren’t getting a top prospect back but I would be surprised if we all end up with is some 24 y/o AA guy that is likely going nowhere and has little upside.

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10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am not talking about a sustained period.  I am talking about now.

I have no problem with Elias trading a 33 year old pitcher off a rebuilding team.  I just think the timing is bad.  He should have waited a few weeks to see if the team contends for a playoff spot.    Its not a good idea to trade effective pitchers off a playoff team.  If the team faltered in the next few weeks then make the trade.  If the team contends Bleier could have been valuable to the O's.

They aren’t contending for a playoff spot and even if they do, Bleier isn’t making or breaking that run.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I think so too.  We aren’t getting a top prospect back but I would be surprised if we all end up with is some 24 y/o AA guy that is likely going nowhere and has little upside.

Basically a Rule 5 equivalent.  TJ McFarlane type with a higher K rate and risk/weakness in some other area. 

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13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They aren’t contending for a playoff spot and even if they do, Bleier isn’t making or breaking that run.

We will see.  I see a group of position players that believe in one another and play well together.   Well coached and showing development over last season.     I see three starters that could provide a core and a few others that can log innings.  I think the pen  could be good for a short season the way Hyde is playing them.   They would probably burnout if used this way over a 162 game season.    

I don't think fans are taking into account the develop of the players, the short season,  the approach of believing in each other which allow hitter to get hits instead of go for homers at every at bat.  The defense is improve substantially.   And 16 teams make the playoffs. 

I can't say if this will last but I can say it deserves a chance.

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12 hours ago, makoman said:

I’ve only seen the losses, but he’s looked alright to me, unlucky a bit. His BABIP is awful. His LD% is 20 but he’s only 3-28. His xwOBA is decent but not great. Hopefully he’ll turn it around. 

I think he's looked awful at the plate - reaching for way too many outside pitches.  The question is - will he adjust?  

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

...the approach of believing in each other which allow hitter to get hits instead of go for homers at every at bat.

I don't know why teams like the Yanks and Dodgers spend hundreds of $millions on free agents when they could just believe in each other. 

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