Jump to content
wildcard

What if this is the next O's contending team?

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Not by ERA.    Everyone goes ga-ga over strikeouts but a pitcher that can pitch to contact and get quick outs is very valuable if the team has a good defense.

That defense doesn't help a lot with the rate balls have been going over the fence the last few years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Which the Os don’t, especially in the OF.

Bleier isn’t a sub 2 ERA guy even if he did it in a SSS.

Hes a serviceable guy that can provide you some innings and value when he’s cheap.  That’s good.  He’s nothing more than that.

Sounds like you are in denial.    Bleier was a   below 2.00 ERA pitcher in the majors for 2016-2018.  Look it up.   He had a lat and shoulder injuries be begin 2019 and was never really healthy.   This season he is back to his  2016-2018 form.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sounds like you are in denial.    Bleier was a   below 2.00 ERA pitcher in the majors for 2016-2018.  Look it up.   He had a lat and shoulder injuries be begin 2019 and was never really healthy.   This season he is back to his  2016-2018 form.

Nah, I’m good.  I’m not overvaluing a guy based on a SSS.  
 

I do like the ground balls and walk rate...and I do like that he can throw multiple innnings but 2 of the 3 years you talked about were very SSS.  Like you said, over about 100 innings, he was a sub 2 ERA guy.  That doesn’t mean that is the level of pitcher he will be for a sustained period of time.

Now, I will say that because he has had some level of success, I would hope that Elias didn’t just dump him for nothing.  That move wouldn’t make sense at all but I don’t think he did that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Not by ERA.    Everyone goes ga-ga over strikeouts but a pitcher that can pitch to contact and get quick outs is very valuable if the team has a good defense.

ERA is not terribly predictive, especially when its not supported by peripherals.

In the last decade there have been 32 pitchers with 100+ innings and a K rate under 5.00.  Their median ERA is about 4.80.  Pitching to soft contact is not really a thing.  Everyone goes gaga over strikeouts because it works.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Now, I will say that because he has had some level of success, I would hope that Elias didn’t just dump him for nothing.  That move wouldn’t make sense at all but I don’t think he did that.

I assume Elias picked Bleier to give to the Marlins because he thought he could leverage his ERA-FIP difference for a little better return knowing it was unlikely to continue.  Not that the Marlin's GM wouldn't see that, but maybe worth a little...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Nah, I’m good.  I’m not overvaluing a guy based on a SSS.  
 

I do like the ground balls and walk rate...and I do like that he can throw multiple innnings but 2 of the 3 years you talked about were very SSS.  Like you said, over about 100 innings, he was a sub 2 ERA guy.  That doesn’t mean that is the level of pitcher he will be for a sustained period of time.

Now, I will say that because he has had some level of success, I would hope that Elias didn’t just dump him for nothing.  That move wouldn’t make sense at all but I don’t think he did that.

I am not talking about a sustained period.  I am talking about now.

I have no problem with Elias trading a 33 year old pitcher off a rebuilding team.  I just think the timing is bad.  He should have waited a few weeks to see if the team contends for a playoff spot.    Its not a good idea to trade effective pitchers off a playoff team.  If the team faltered in the next few weeks then make the trade.  If the team contends Bleier could have been valuable to the O's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sounds like you are in denial.    Bleier was a   below 2.00 ERA pitcher in the majors for 2016-2018.  Look it up.  

ERA is a combination of luck/random variation, defense, park and skill.  Sometimes in small numbers of innings one of those components has outsized impact on the total.  That is very unlikely to continue in the long run.

When a pitcher has an ERA dramatically lower than his FIP it's a near certainty that his ERA going forward will be closer to his FIP than his past ERA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I just think the timing is bad.  He should have waited a few weeks to see if the team contends for a playoff spot.    Its not a good idea to trade effective pitchers off a playoff team.  If the team faltered in the next few weeks then make the trade.  If the team contends Bleier could have been valuable to the O's.

Elias is not going to make long-term decisions on the makeup of the team based on SSS noise.  When a .300 or .350 team plays .625 ball for a week that's static, it's not data.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I assume Elias picked Bleier to give to the Marlins because he thought he could leverage his ERA-FIP difference for a little better return knowing it was unlikely to continue.  Not that the Marlin's GM wouldn't see that, but maybe worth a little...

Yea I think so too.  We aren’t getting a top prospect back but I would be surprised if we all end up with is some 24 y/o AA guy that is likely going nowhere and has little upside.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am not talking about a sustained period.  I am talking about now.

I have no problem with Elias trading a 33 year old pitcher off a rebuilding team.  I just think the timing is bad.  He should have waited a few weeks to see if the team contends for a playoff spot.    Its not a good idea to trade effective pitchers off a playoff team.  If the team faltered in the next few weeks then make the trade.  If the team contends Bleier could have been valuable to the O's.

They aren’t contending for a playoff spot and even if they do, Bleier isn’t making or breaking that run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I think so too.  We aren’t getting a top prospect back but I would be surprised if we all end up with is some 24 y/o AA guy that is likely going nowhere and has little upside.

Basically a Rule 5 equivalent.  TJ McFarlane type with a higher K rate and risk/weakness in some other area. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They aren’t contending for a playoff spot and even if they do, Bleier isn’t making or breaking that run.

We will see.  I see a group of position players that believe in one another and play well together.   Well coached and showing development over last season.     I see three starters that could provide a core and a few others that can log innings.  I think the pen  could be good for a short season the way Hyde is playing them.   They would probably burnout if used this way over a 162 game season.    

I don't think fans are taking into account the develop of the players, the short season,  the approach of believing in each other which allow hitter to get hits instead of go for homers at every at bat.  The defense is improve substantially.   And 16 teams make the playoffs. 

I can't say if this will last but I can say it deserves a chance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, makoman said:

I’ve only seen the losses, but he’s looked alright to me, unlucky a bit. His BABIP is awful. His LD% is 20 but he’s only 3-28. His xwOBA is decent but not great. Hopefully he’ll turn it around. 

I think he's looked awful at the plate - reaching for way too many outside pitches.  The question is - will he adjust?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

...the approach of believing in each other which allow hitter to get hits instead of go for homers at every at bat.

I don't know why teams like the Yanks and Dodgers spend hundreds of $millions on free agents when they could just believe in each other. 

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • Something in the analytics must show for Puig that Elias and company see.   You can get him enough at bats as most players don’t play 162 games.  The question is more how long will they keep Diaz down.  If they want him playing full time half the season then Puig makes some sense. I think Mancini will be like a 5 day a week player if you give Stewart a day off a week and Santander a day off every two week and same with Mountcastle you can get Puig 4 days a week and still giving most the at bats to those 4.
    • At the end of the day, you guys are right. The market dictates the value and the market decided he was not worth what he was going to get in arbitration. Whether his previous production and age suggests he SHOULD be worth that, the market decided it was not. 
    • I'm not going to lie, but that is up there for one of the greatest lines in Hangout history.
    • I agree.    If you let Nunez go, it shouldn’t be primarily because of cost.    Now, if you think you can get equivalent or better production for your roster cheaper, that is okay.  But you don’t make your team worse over $2 mm or less.     It’s going to be interesting to see what happens with Nunez.    There’s going to be a lot of players on the market after the non-tender deadline I suspect.    I do think he’ll get a major league contract somewhere and will get above the minimum, but it might be less than he was projected to get in arbitration.     
    • Shaw would not crack our top 30.
    • With the injury histories of Hays, Santander and relative inexperience with mixed results of Mullins and Stewart, I'm not sure we can say that. No Nunez did clear waivers and no one traded for him so perhaps there is something else going on here with him, but the guy has been a pretty productive bat and is just going to be 27 years old next year. Either way, I get what you are saying about Shaw and I agree, I think Elias will end up DFAing him and trying to keep him in the system.
    • I'm not excited that the team is making moves because guys are cheap, especially when the other option is around $2 million, which should be chump change for major league organizations. I'm just not sure I get this particular set of skills. Now perhaps Elias is going to DFA him and try to sneak him into the minor league system as depth. I guess there are worse guys to do this with, but I really would like to think this is a transition year where the Orioles are starting to bring up guys that will be contributors to a winning future and not place holders.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...