Jump to content
wildcard

What if this is the next O's contending team?

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Not by ERA.    Everyone goes ga-ga over strikeouts but a pitcher that can pitch to contact and get quick outs is very valuable if the team has a good defense.

That defense doesn't help a lot with the rate balls have been going over the fence the last few years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Which the Os don’t, especially in the OF.

Bleier isn’t a sub 2 ERA guy even if he did it in a SSS.

Hes a serviceable guy that can provide you some innings and value when he’s cheap.  That’s good.  He’s nothing more than that.

Sounds like you are in denial.    Bleier was a   below 2.00 ERA pitcher in the majors for 2016-2018.  Look it up.   He had a lat and shoulder injuries be begin 2019 and was never really healthy.   This season he is back to his  2016-2018 form.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sounds like you are in denial.    Bleier was a   below 2.00 ERA pitcher in the majors for 2016-2018.  Look it up.   He had a lat and shoulder injuries be begin 2019 and was never really healthy.   This season he is back to his  2016-2018 form.

Nah, I’m good.  I’m not overvaluing a guy based on a SSS.  
 

I do like the ground balls and walk rate...and I do like that he can throw multiple innnings but 2 of the 3 years you talked about were very SSS.  Like you said, over about 100 innings, he was a sub 2 ERA guy.  That doesn’t mean that is the level of pitcher he will be for a sustained period of time.

Now, I will say that because he has had some level of success, I would hope that Elias didn’t just dump him for nothing.  That move wouldn’t make sense at all but I don’t think he did that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Not by ERA.    Everyone goes ga-ga over strikeouts but a pitcher that can pitch to contact and get quick outs is very valuable if the team has a good defense.

ERA is not terribly predictive, especially when its not supported by peripherals.

In the last decade there have been 32 pitchers with 100+ innings and a K rate under 5.00.  Their median ERA is about 4.80.  Pitching to soft contact is not really a thing.  Everyone goes gaga over strikeouts because it works.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Now, I will say that because he has had some level of success, I would hope that Elias didn’t just dump him for nothing.  That move wouldn’t make sense at all but I don’t think he did that.

I assume Elias picked Bleier to give to the Marlins because he thought he could leverage his ERA-FIP difference for a little better return knowing it was unlikely to continue.  Not that the Marlin's GM wouldn't see that, but maybe worth a little...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Nah, I’m good.  I’m not overvaluing a guy based on a SSS.  
 

I do like the ground balls and walk rate...and I do like that he can throw multiple innnings but 2 of the 3 years you talked about were very SSS.  Like you said, over about 100 innings, he was a sub 2 ERA guy.  That doesn’t mean that is the level of pitcher he will be for a sustained period of time.

Now, I will say that because he has had some level of success, I would hope that Elias didn’t just dump him for nothing.  That move wouldn’t make sense at all but I don’t think he did that.

I am not talking about a sustained period.  I am talking about now.

I have no problem with Elias trading a 33 year old pitcher off a rebuilding team.  I just think the timing is bad.  He should have waited a few weeks to see if the team contends for a playoff spot.    Its not a good idea to trade effective pitchers off a playoff team.  If the team faltered in the next few weeks then make the trade.  If the team contends Bleier could have been valuable to the O's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sounds like you are in denial.    Bleier was a   below 2.00 ERA pitcher in the majors for 2016-2018.  Look it up.  

ERA is a combination of luck/random variation, defense, park and skill.  Sometimes in small numbers of innings one of those components has outsized impact on the total.  That is very unlikely to continue in the long run.

When a pitcher has an ERA dramatically lower than his FIP it's a near certainty that his ERA going forward will be closer to his FIP than his past ERA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I just think the timing is bad.  He should have waited a few weeks to see if the team contends for a playoff spot.    Its not a good idea to trade effective pitchers off a playoff team.  If the team faltered in the next few weeks then make the trade.  If the team contends Bleier could have been valuable to the O's.

Elias is not going to make long-term decisions on the makeup of the team based on SSS noise.  When a .300 or .350 team plays .625 ball for a week that's static, it's not data.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I assume Elias picked Bleier to give to the Marlins because he thought he could leverage his ERA-FIP difference for a little better return knowing it was unlikely to continue.  Not that the Marlin's GM wouldn't see that, but maybe worth a little...

Yea I think so too.  We aren’t getting a top prospect back but I would be surprised if we all end up with is some 24 y/o AA guy that is likely going nowhere and has little upside.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am not talking about a sustained period.  I am talking about now.

I have no problem with Elias trading a 33 year old pitcher off a rebuilding team.  I just think the timing is bad.  He should have waited a few weeks to see if the team contends for a playoff spot.    Its not a good idea to trade effective pitchers off a playoff team.  If the team faltered in the next few weeks then make the trade.  If the team contends Bleier could have been valuable to the O's.

They aren’t contending for a playoff spot and even if they do, Bleier isn’t making or breaking that run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I think so too.  We aren’t getting a top prospect back but I would be surprised if we all end up with is some 24 y/o AA guy that is likely going nowhere and has little upside.

Basically a Rule 5 equivalent.  TJ McFarlane type with a higher K rate and risk/weakness in some other area. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They aren’t contending for a playoff spot and even if they do, Bleier isn’t making or breaking that run.

We will see.  I see a group of position players that believe in one another and play well together.   Well coached and showing development over last season.     I see three starters that could provide a core and a few others that can log innings.  I think the pen  could be good for a short season the way Hyde is playing them.   They would probably burnout if used this way over a 162 game season.    

I don't think fans are taking into account the develop of the players, the short season,  the approach of believing in each other which allow hitter to get hits instead of go for homers at every at bat.  The defense is improve substantially.   And 16 teams make the playoffs. 

I can't say if this will last but I can say it deserves a chance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, makoman said:

I’ve only seen the losses, but he’s looked alright to me, unlucky a bit. His BABIP is awful. His LD% is 20 but he’s only 3-28. His xwOBA is decent but not great. Hopefully he’ll turn it around. 

I think he's looked awful at the plate - reaching for way too many outside pitches.  The question is - will he adjust?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

...the approach of believing in each other which allow hitter to get hits instead of go for homers at every at bat.

I don't know why teams like the Yanks and Dodgers spend hundreds of $millions on free agents when they could just believe in each other. 

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • MLB Pipeline did a Top 10 on their podcast this week, including shreds on I guess NCAA sophomores who like Kjerstad in February/March may have done stuff for a few weeks.  It also acquainted me with the demographics of the basket where 1-5 will be one of them. Pirates 1 - Lawlar the HS shortstop Rangers 2 - Kumar Tigers 3 - McClain, some Madrigal-sized middle infielder from UCLA, maybe/maybe not SS Red Sox 4 - del Castillo, some slugging catcher from "The U" deemed best hitter in draft Orioles 5 - Leiter (I'd be glad with this outcome for polish going towards 2022 usefulness) D'Backs 6 - Jake Hill, the LSU right-hander, non-Vanderbilt best of SEC rest.   Guessing Ben may know him some. Royals 7 - Jud Zabian, Florida OF    <mock now at 6 straight NCAA after the high school SS character who seems impossible to get to 1-5> <hosts say these Top 7 are a clear tier in whatever order they fall> Rockies 8 - Alex Vanellas, Louisville 3B Angels 9 - Marcelo Mayer, high school SS #2 Mets 10 - James Wood, IMG Academy high school OF <nary a high school pitcher in these 10, though with draft pushed back to July, the Nick Bitsko analogs born in 2003 will have some extra time to strut their stuff, in case the next Kerry Wood, Josh Beckett or Dylan Bundy can only Netflix and chill right now>    
    • I would dangle him to anyone whi would take him. I didn't want him back at any cost let alone 1.8M
    • He is so streaky that when he is in his funk he will be worse than the MIF we run out there.
    • https://halohangout.com/2020/07/13/angels-garrett-stallings-summer-camp/ An Angels fansite report when he later got to their 60 this summer cites a curve as the Junior year difference maker. Their source for that this campus story https://247sports.com/college/tennessee/Article/Tennessee-Vols-Baseball-Vols-Garrett-Stallings-selected-in-fifth-round-of-MLB-Draft-132589216/ also has the details he was their 2019 Friday night guy even with Crochet on the team. His Perfect Game blurb from high school times mentioned three-quarters to over the top arm angle, gee whiz. Who knows if he could have had Kevin Smith's 2019 in parallel universe 2020?   SEC trade imports links them, but Smith actually doing it including a little AA success is a big credit in his favor for the moment.
    • He fits the Smith/Kjerstad mold of SEC guys steadily improving (Growth Mindset?), even if some of that is demonstrated in small sample sizes.   Smith did backup his Junior Year rise up draft boards with his great 2019 for the Mets.  I am imagining entering Junior year Stallings was not a 5th or 25th round profile.   He's one more piece for the box of chocolates we'll get to open in the spring.
    • I wonder if he had a velocity spike his junior year and if that would make it less likely for him to have untapped velocity?
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...