Jump to content
wildcard

What if this is the next O's contending team?

Recommended Posts

I can’t believe I am asking this but at what point would we consider them a contender? 

In playoff position at the trade deadline? Roughly 30 games left? 

Two weeks from now we might be 4 games under .500 and the dream is over. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't know why teams like the Yanks and Dodgers spend hundreds of $millions on free agents when they could just believe in each other. 

Not disagreeing with your point... but I do think you can leverage an us against the world mentality a little easier in a 60 game sprint where 8 teams make the playoffs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I can’t believe I am asking this but at what point would we consider them a contender? 

In playoff position at the trade deadline? Roughly 30 games left? 

Two weeks from now we might be 4 games under .500 and the dream is over. 

Three weeks ago I said I thought the Orioles were a 17-win team.  Now that they're 5-3 in eight games I think they end up at (52*(17/60))+5 = 20 wins.  To make the playoffs they need to win about 30 or so.

I'd say they'd have to be about 20-10 through 30 games before I really think they have a chance.

  • Upvote 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’ll say this. The entire topic about being a contender reminds me of the NFL. 

The two sports are impossible to compare, not like there is a MiL team in football but the 16 game season creates teams being in the race deeper into the season. It’s not the great “NFL competitive balance” that is promoted by so many but it’s the limited number of games. 

I mean look at the NBA and NHL and the number of mediocre and lesser teams that hang around playoff contention all year. Have only 5 teams in each conference making the playoffs and even in an 82 game season that dream is gone.

Its amazing when you decrease games and increase playoff teams what happens. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I can’t believe I am asking this but at what point would we consider them a contender? 

In playoff position at the trade deadline? Roughly 30 games left? 

Two weeks from now we might be 4 games under .500 and the dream is over. 

If they lose the Marlins series, it's over right there, so I'm not going to think past that series until that series is over.  At that point, we'll have played 12 games - or one fifth of what's planned to be the regular season.  Too soon.      

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Three weeks ago I said I thought the Orioles were a 17-win team.  Now that they're 5-3 in eight games I think they end up at (52*(17/60))+5 = 20 wins.  To make the playoffs they need to win about 30 or so.

I'd say they'd have to be about 20-10 through 30 games before I really think they have a chance.

31-29 probably gets a team to the playoffs.  They don't have to go 20-10 to win 31.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I can’t believe I am asking this but at what point would we consider them a contender? 

It’s not 15% of the way through the season,  I know that much. I don’t think there’s a magic number but I do think that they are playing above their head right now.

I also don’t think Lil Yaz is the best player in baseball.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

If they lose the Marlins series, it's over right there, so I'm not going to think past that series until that series is over.  At that point, we'll have played 12 games - or one fifth of what's planned to be the regular season.  Too soon.      

Of course it’s way too soon. Just having a little fun. Like I said in 2 weeks we may be under .500 and headed towards 40 losses. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm working on enjoying the moment but these wins are feeling a little bit Pyrrhic, as the risk of missing a shot at one more rare talent for the next good team's core group increases.

I took a little comfort this weekend in that entering 1989 - with today's perspective I might have looked for a McDonald bookend, then we went and did all that winning and only got...Mike Mussina (but not Chipper Jones).

It isn't that I want the team to lose, it is more that this team very likely ought to lose.  In 162, they would surely earn X for the peak Rutschman teams, but the circumstances of 2020 might conspire to block the org from having what it "deserves".

But hey, if we can sweep the Rays, the Pirates can sweep the Twins, right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

It’s not 15% of the way through the season,  I know that much. I don’t think there’s a magic number but I do think that they are playing above their head right now.

I also don’t think Lil Yaz is the best player in baseball.

I feel like I have lost my mind even bringing it up as a conversation/kidding around.

Imagine a 162 game season with 5 playoffs teams like normal. Would be 154 games left. Even as a joke nobody would bring it up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's still way too soon to be talking like this but it's still fun.

Maybe it's a perfect storm for a team like the Orioles to get into an expanded playoff format and make some noise.  And with the way the schedule is set up, it seems like it could be possible.  The Marlins were bad to begin with, now they're having a hard time to field a team.  We should be able to beat up on them, but so will everyone else.  Boston doesn't look good, despite having some good offensive weapons.  

So...In the words of Lou Brown, maybe we can "hang around for a while and see if we can give 'em all a nice big $#*%burger to eat!"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, wildcard said:

31-29 probably gets a team to the playoffs.  They don't have to go 20-10 to win 31.

This is not a contending team...Don't be fooled by a good start. The only problem is they may be able to hang around with the real Cobb and veteran performances by Milone, and LeBlanc might prevent them from being terrible

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm hopeful that this is a short enough sprint into a really wide playoff net that the marathon of a normal baseball season won't be able to pick out the flukes quickly enough. After that point, you just need to be hot at the right time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just reviewed the 2005 oriole season. After 72 games they were 42-30. After that, they started faltering and they only won 32 more games the whole season.

However, that illustrates that if a team starts hot, and every player is able to play to his maximum ability for a time, it is possible. After all, the best team ever playing the worst team ever only wins one game at a time, and all that extra talent and ability is wasted. We don’t have to be the best,We just have to cover our flaws for 60 games.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, wildcard said:

31-29 probably gets a team to the playoffs.  They don't have to go 20-10 to win 31.

It would certainly help.  Unless you think that roughly one month's worth of results is overwhelmingly more meaningful than all of our body knowledge about the Orioles and the rest of the league.

The 2019 Orioles had a 12-12 July and a stretch where they went 7-3 in 10 games.  They went 18-37 in August and September.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • https://www.orioleshangout.com/2020/10/30/30-2020-prospect-tyler-nevin-1b-3b/
    • https://www.orioleshangout.com/2020/10/30/29-2020-prospect-rylan-bannon-2b-3b/
    • I'm not going to believe any of these Bauer rumors until he's spotted at a Ravens game.
    • The best bet is to build a deep, young group of players from the minors, draft and cheap, younger role players.  Have 28 contributing role players and future all-stars that can be a good base and take us a year or two to be a .500 team.  Then with a low payroll, and high draft choices, add what you need to be a playoff team after you see what develops.  A bullpen does not need veterans.  It needs young guys with electric stuff.  Lots of them throughout the roster and upper minors....  Most bullpen guys 15 years ago were failed starters.  Even now that is still a good place to get relievers.  Other teams failed starters that are still young but throw well for short stints.  If you have a 28 man roster with a payroll of $30 million and all controllable for 3 more years, that is when you add that #1 and #2 starter and maybe one veteran bullpen guy and a couple of bats.  Continue to see what our outfield is and who shakes out.  I'm sure we have at least two starters out there for a playoff team and one or two role players out there.  Severino and Sisco may not be the top catchers in baseball.  But they may be among the best backup catchers if we let them continue to play and Rutschman becomes an All-star.  Mancini will not be on the next Orioles playoff team most likely but he may be a decent role player or somebody that gets us something via trade in a couple of years.  Alberto, Ruiz, Nunez, Iglesias should not be a starting playoff infield but every team needs a couple of veteran backups.  Perhaps Alberto fits that role nicely and we continue to draft and develop more infielders.  Draft, develop, depth and deal from depth.  And hope and pray that Rodriguez and Hall make it as at least #3 and #4 starters and we have Means, Rodriguez and Hall at the BACK of the rotation.  Lately we have made the mistake of having guys like Bundy, Cobb, Guthrie, Lopez, Cabrera, Ponson, Bedard, etc.... at the front of our rotation and attempted to add behind them.  Get those type of guys, develop them, bring them along as not the featured guys and then when we are really ready go out and get the Ace or Two.  Kind of like Astros developing McCullers and others in their lineup and bullpen and then deal from depth and excess budget and get Verlander and Cole and Greinke..  
    • Agreed.  Probably a number of reasons, including what you said about nutrition and fitness.  Up until the 1970s the average 30, 40, 50-year-old did zero cardio, weights, etc.  Somewhere in the 70s and 80s jogging and some other types of popular exercise became things.  Nutrition is an impact comparing to 100 years ago.  Look at photos of ballplayers from the 30s and many of them have this thin, sunken cheek appearance that nobody today has. I think smoking is a huge part of it.  In the 60s and 70s and before something close to 50% of the population smoked.  That just crushes how you look as you age.  I've known people who looked good at 30 but went downhill fast because of a combination of smoking and tanning.  Earl and Cal Sr. smoked like chimneys, and were out in the sun all summer. Also, I think women are much more likely today to have non-grandma hairstyles and coloring to mask gray hair.
    • I missed that one. What happened??? I think I am stuck on 3 for 13. Diaz threw me for a major loop.
    • My gut feeling is that a year from now, if we made a list of our top 10 international prospects, L Rodriguez would be near the bottom of that list.    But at this point most of our top guys don’t have any track record to go on.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...