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wildcard

What if this is the next O's contending team?

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playing much, much better baseball than I expected.  Playoffs are definitely within the achievable although question if ME will trade off any players

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7 hours ago, wildcard said:

33% through the season. Two weeks ago the consensus was that the 2020 O's were not a contending team.  Not enough talent to contend.  Read what you posted.    Has your opinion changed?

 

On 8/2/2020 at 11:16 AM, Frobby said:

This is not our next contending team.   Could it fluke into a .500ish season and have a shot at making a 16-team playoff?    I wouldn’t rule that out completely, and I’d enjoy it, but I don’t think that makes them a contending team by my definition.    

My opinion has not changed.     But our odds of having a shot at the 16-game playoffs have improved.     You know the old saying about baseball “it’s a marathon, not a sprint?”     Well, this is a sprint, and we’re in good position 33 meters into the 100 meter dash.   I’m having a lot of fun watching it happen.    

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The 2005 team was 36-24 after 60 games.

We are on exactly the same pace.

the 2005 team fell completely apart after that point, but after 60 games they still had 102 remaining. We will not.

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9 hours ago, Philip said:

The 2005 team was 36-24 after 60 games.

We are on exactly the same pace.

the 2005 team fell completely apart after that point, but after 60 games they still had 102 remaining. We will not.

The 2005 team was long in the tooth, for the lineup at least. Raffy and Surhoff were both 40.  Mora and Tejada were > 30, a 36 year old Sosa and 34 year old Javy Lopez.   Way more talent on paper, but it also had some low-character guys, juicers and bums like Ponson.  So its no surprise they fell apart.

Edited by GuidoSarducci

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1 hour ago, GuidoSarducci said:

The 2005 team was long in the tooth, for the lineup at least. Raffy and Surhoff were both 40.  Mora and Tejada were > 30, a 36 year old Sosa and 34 year old Javy Lopez.   Way more talent on paper, but it also had some low-character guys, juicers and bums like Ponson.  So its no surprise they fell apart.

Yeah, over a long season, generally talent and luck will level out so you end up pretty much the way you should be. That would probably be the case with us as well, the guys we have who seem to have made genuine improvements aren’t significant enough to have a “terrible to terrific” effect.

I think in a full season we would be respectable but still not very good, but in the short season, flaws will be minimized.

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11 hours ago, Philip said:

Yeah, over a long season, generally talent and luck will level out so you end up pretty much the way you should be. That would probably be the case with us as well, the guys we have who seem to have made genuine improvements aren’t significant enough to have a “terrible to terrific” effect.

I think in a full season we would be respectable but still not very good, but in the short season, flaws will be minimized.

Or exaggerated.  The 2010 Orioles were a generically bad 66-96 (.407).  But they started 1-11 and were under .300 at the 60-game mark.  Everyone knows about the '88 team, that started 0-21, and were 15-45, 40-win pace, 60 games in.

One reason the '82 Orioles had to sprint in September to try to catch the Brewers is that they started 2-10 and didn't stay over .500 until early June.

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o

 

Reeling, but still alive ........ save for Alex Cobb's start on Monday, the starting rotation has been putting a lot of pressure on both the bullpen and the offense as of late.

 

(AUGUST 18th)

 

The Orioles' starting rotation has a 7.53 ERA over its last 7 games, and said pitchers have covered just 28.67 innings in that stretch.

They have 4 starts of 4 innings or less over the past 7 outings.

 

SOURCE: ) Steve Melewski

 

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/08/caleb-joseph-on-return-to-baltimore-plus-other-notes.html

 

o

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On 8/2/2020 at 8:32 AM, wildcard said:

 

Yeah, yeah, yeah ...... SSS, too early and all that.

The Orioles took 2 out of 3 from the Red Sox. They should have split with the Yankees if the ump was better. And now, they will have won at least 2 of 3 from Tampa Bay. Maybe we can't call this team a contender yet, but it does deserve the chance to be a contender. 3 of the starters look like they will be good. There are a group of relievers that look good. The offense is scoring at least 5 most games. The defense looks much tighter.

However, Elias made it clear in his most recent video explaining the Bleier trade that his focus is on the future, and not the present team. I think that trading Bleier was a logical move sometime this season. But trading him a week into the season when the team is still contending was a radical move. The timing was radical.   

Normally a GM sees what his team is doing verse its competition, and either adds or subtracts about half through the seasonHe (usually) gives the team a chance to show what it can do. Then he makes moves accordingly. Elias did not do that. He didn't wait three weeks to see how his team was doing. We saw the results last night. Bleier has been a good setup pitcher in the 8th inning over his Orioles career. Last night, the Rays tied the game by scoring 3 runs in the 8th. That is just the first example of missing Bleier.

There is no way to know if this team is the next contending team. I hope that Elias gives them a chance.

Here is Elias' presser, about the trade of Bleier:

 

https://www.masnsports.com/videos/2020/08/mike-elias-on-the-orioles-recent-roster-moves.html

 

 

o

 

(37 DAYS LATER)

 

"The Orioles' record isnt supposed to matter in 2020, but thats like being told that average is a useless stat until a player has a chance to win the batting title."

 

Roch Kubatko

 

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/09/what-else-is-going-on-with-orioles-besides-pennant-race.html

 

o

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This is a much different team than the one from even a few weeks ago.

Not sure they still make it but they obviously have a chance with NY faltering so much and being so injured.  The other teams aren’t any better than the Os. 

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

This is a much different team than the one from even a few weeks ago.

Not sure they still make it but they obviously have a chance with NY faltering so much and being so injured.  The other teams aren’t any better than the Os. 

I think it is safe to say that not all of the playoff teams in 2020 would be considered good by traditional metrics.

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5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it is safe to say that not all of the playoff teams in 2020 would be considered good by traditional metrics.

Of course not but that doesn’t really matter.

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LET'S GO!

This is getting exciting.  Means would be a great piece of the puzzle to have back in place.  Mountcastle has provided a big jolt.  Stewart is coming on.  Mullins looks better.  Not sure how many long term answers we really have on this team, but who cares?  We are competing every night.    

I've seen some metrics on Kremer's start with not a good strike % and only 8 swinging strikes.  The velo was impressive.  If he can tick up the strike % a bit and lower the BBs, he may just be a major league starting pitcher.  

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Really might be time to start considering calling up Baumann and Yusniel Diaz.  Or Lowther and Zimmerman.  Start having some length in the pen and piece together 9IP. And of course, DFA Davis.  

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