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Elias: emulating the Rays?

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12 minutes ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

This part alone tells me you either aren't assessing these transactions in good faith, or you simply didn't pay any attention at all to who Cashner is as a player.

Cashner was a veteran rental with a reasonable salary and no commitment beyond the playoffs. Wait and see what we get out of the return get back to me. And don’t question my faith.

I can point at many other deals for veterans with expiring contracts at the deadline.

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2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

LOL ...ok

Cashner was a straight salary dump.

Boston only wanted him to fill in for a few starts.

I'm glad they got someone to take the contract.

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1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Cashner was a veteran rental with a reasonable salary and no commitment beyond the playoffs. Wait and see what we get out of the return get back to me. And don’t question my faith.

I can point at many other deals for veterans with expiring contracts at the deadline.

Cashner was owed more than he was worth last year. He did nothing for Boston but make their playoff odds worse.

You honestly might be the only person in the world who would categorize that trade as a "loss" or the Orioles. It honestly doesn't matter if the players acquired become big league talents. They got potential future value for what was a negative value contract in Cashner. The O's were lucky that he out-pitched his peripherals to the point that Boston was desperate enough to give him a try.

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5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Cashner was a straight salary dump.

Boston only wanted him to fill in for a few starts.

I'm glad they got someone to take the contract.

Cashner isn’t good.  He was always going to fall apart, which he did after the deal.

Elias was able to get 2 lottery tickets with big potential.  They are more then likely going to be nothing but it’s a good deal for someone who isn’t that good. Much rather have gotten that then some 24 y/o AA player, with good stats in leagues he’s too old for, who has little to no upside.

 

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17 hours ago, makoman said:

Isn’t the “MASN thing” that MASN alone pays the O’s more per year than the Rays typical payroll? Even with the adjustments from losing the court case (I’m assuming it’s lost at this point). 

I see no reason why the Orioles shouldn't operate at least on a Brewers level of payroll.

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17 hours ago, Philip said:

If Mike is really going to avoid drafting pitchers, that’s a problem. 
Spending a pile of money on almost any FA pitching would be foolish, when you can draft a bunch of guys, keep them for 3-4 inexpensive years and then trade them.

Pitchers' disproportionate fragility, Elias's experience getting burned drafting pitchers high, and the O's decade or more of draft busts all argue against the doomed "Grow the arms" philosophy. Why play the pitching lottery when you can wait and buy proven mound success--or trade for it with a full stable of young homegrown bats?

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8 hours ago, Roll Tide said:


So far I’ve seen nothing to indicate the Elias is good at trading.

To be fair, he hasn't had much of anything of value to trade

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2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Phil ... I would never judge whether the team is better now after a trade for a rebuilding club.

 

Also he has had some trade pieces .....

 

He gave away Yaz that many here are upset about and got Tyler Herb (28) and had a 6+ ERA at AA last year (LOST)

Traded INT SLOTS for Broxton (was only here a short time) from the Giants (Certainly didn't win that trade)

Cashner deal ..... Really young Dominican non-prospects for a pitcher going to a contender for a playoff run (LOST)

Villar .... Easton Lucas is all he could get ... A low round (19th) with a terrible college ERA. He's actually been okay. Just under 4 ERA (LOST)

Bundy ... Despite being 25 Mattson is only the current 60 man ...but not on the 40.       (Too Early too tell)

                Peek is 22 and DNP last year after being drafted. He was a 4.00 ERA pitcher at Winthrop and is likely only filler

                Brnovich is another 22 year old drafted last year out of Elon

                Bradish (Only player ranked in our top 30 at #20) He's also 22

 

The Bundy is the best of the deals ....I think the returns for Cashner and Villar were poor!

 

 

How can you say we lost the Cashner trade?  IIRC Cashner had a poor 2018 and was outperforming his peripherals and due for regression in 2019. His value was not high and Elias turned that into two lottery tickets while Cashner regressed for the Red Sox.  The fact he got anything at all for him was a good thing imo. 

Also if the goal of the Villar trade was to dump his salary then that trade worked out fine. Plus they replaced him with Iglesias.  

I think we'll get a good look at Elias' trading ability when we find out what they got back for Bleier and if/when they trade Givens.  Both of those guys are effective relievers with multiple years of control.  If he trades those guys for lotto tickets too, then I think it may be time to get concerned. 

 

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16 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

Yep, it’s not like “grow the arms and buy the bats“ was a proven system. 

Regarding the drafting, is there a method to the madness progression-wise?  Do position players take longer to get major league ready than pitchers?  With us being in a total rebuild, if that were the case, wouldn't it make sense to draft heavy on position players for a couple years to get lots of players into development before embarking on pitchers so the development curves of the draftees coalesce into a complete unit?  It's just a guess, maybe a bad one... I wasn't able to find any data on time to the Bigs as relates to position players and pitchers as separate groups.   

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4 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

Regarding the drafting, is there a method to the madness progression-wise?  Do position players take longer to get major league ready than pitchers?  With us being in a total rebuild, if that were the case, wouldn't it make sense to draft heavy on position players for a couple years to get lots of players into development before embarking on pitchers so the development curves of the draftees coalesce into a complete unit?  It's just a guess, maybe a bad one... I wasn't able to find any data on time to the Bigs as relates to position players and pitchers as separate groups.   

Elias may be hesitant to pull the trigger on pitchers, but I doubt it. There’s a lot of sense in letting pitchers develop and then acquire them when the time is right. 

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1 hour ago, Lucky_13 said:

How can you say we lost the Cashner trade?  IIRC Cashner had a poor 2018 and was outperforming his peripherals and due for regression in 2019. His value was not high and Elias turned that into two lottery tickets while Cashner regressed for the Red Sox.  The fact he got anything at all for him was a good thing imo. 

Also if the goal of the Villar trade was to dump his salary then that trade worked out fine. Plus they replaced him with Iglesias.  

I think we'll get a good look at Elias' trading ability when we find out what they got back for Bleier and if/when they trade Givens.  Both of those guys are effective relievers with multiple years of control.  If he trades those guys for lotto tickets too, then I think it may be time to get concerned. 

 

You simply can’t grade the Cashner deal or any the way it’s being done here.

Cashner’s value is based on how had performed up to the trade And the fact that Boston thought he could help.

There are other examples of players that were dealt for a playoff run and completely collapsed.

If he pitched to a 2.50 ERA the rest of the way in the playoffs would he have been worth more?

I don’t think Elias made a good deal .... some here do. We can agree to disagree 

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1 hour ago, Lucky_13 said:

To be fair, he hasn't had much of anything of value to trade

He had Villar and has dealt Bundy who is a solid starting pitcher if nothing more.

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4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

You simply can’t grade the Cashner deal or any the way it’s being done here.

Cashner’s value is based on how had performed up to the trade And the fact that Boston thought he could help.

There are other examples of players that were dealt for a playoff run and completely collapsed.

If he pitched to a 2.50 ERA the rest of the way in the playoffs would he have been worth more?

I don’t think Elias made a good deal .... some here do. We can agree to disagree 

Boston picked him up to eat a few starts until their guys got healthy and they were going to move him to the pen.  They didn't pick him up to start long term or pitch a lot of high leverage innings.

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2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

You simply can’t grade the Cashner deal or any the way it’s being done here.

Cashner’s value is based on how had performed up to the trade And the fact that Boston thought he could help.

There are other examples of players that were dealt for a playoff run and completely collapsed.

If he pitched to a 2.50 ERA the rest of the way in the playoffs would he have been worth more?

I don’t think Elias made a good deal .... some here do. We can agree to disagree 

The league is increasingly data driven so other teams will know he's a regression candidate and is likely having a fluke first half and base what they are willing to pay for Cashner.  If  all the teams Elias talked to came back from their analysts and scouts and said we are only giving you 17 year old DSL players then that's what his market value is. 

No team is dumb enough anymore to say "Hey that guy has a sub 4 ERA, so he's worth X prospects."  IMO Elias got what he could based on what the likely market for Cashner was rather than letting him walk. 

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