Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Frobby

Elias: emulating the Rays?

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Philip said:

With a bad draft pick, you are only losing something that you hoped to get. The difference is obvious.

Fine to disagree on strategy. But your logic here is not obvious to me. Draft slots are concrete assets. If you lose out on drafting a prospective batter because you draft a pitcher who's likely to disappear from injury, it's just as tangible a loss as throwing a prospect away in a bad trade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s exactly what he traded for.

Yeah ... it’s like putting brakes on your car and buying the cheap no name pad and hoping it will work like the premium Knorr brake pad 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

Disagree. The Astros are not some big market behemoth. I think the last list I saw had them 8th or 9th in spending?

Adding guys like Verlander to get a team over the hump is worth the risk. If not then, when? The Orioles are not that far off the Astros payroll at the time that they can’t afford a meaningful acquisition if the situation arises.

Well I am certainly on record as opposing expensive trades or free agent contracts( So, answer your question, never) but if we ever get to the point where we are one superstar pitcher away from getting over the hump, we can revisit this Subject.

But that doesn’t really affect my contention that drafting pitchers is better than drafting hitters.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, now said:

Fine to disagree on strategy. But your logic here is not obvious to me. Draft slots are concrete assets. If you lose out on drafting a prospective batter because you draft a pitcher who's likely to disappear from injury, it's just as tangible a loss as throwing a prospect away in a bad trade.

Well the logic should be obvious, if you have a given draft pick, you have a certain amount of money to put spend on the pic, and every pic is risky. Every pic is potentially wasted, the reward for a good pitching choice is greater than the reward for a good hitting choice

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well I am certainly on record as opposing expensive trades or free agent contracts( So, answer your question, never) but if we ever get to the point where we are one superstar pitcher away from getting over the hump, we can revisit this Subject.

But that doesn’t really affect my contention that drafting pitchers is better than drafting hitters.

Then, I’ll disagree from the standpoint that there is no formula that proves your point. 

You always take the best player available and Elias can argue that’s exactly what he has done.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Il BuonO said:

Then, I’ll disagree from the standpoint that there is no formula that proves your point. 

You always take the best player available and Elias can argue that’s exactly what he has done.

He can argue it, but would you believe him?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He can argue it, but would you believe him?

Yes. Putting aside the draft order machinations and paying over-slot for lower picks. You could still argue it allowed him to pick the best draft class available. 

If another couple drafts take place and a clear pattern emerges, I’ll revisit.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Il BuonO said:

Then, I’ll disagree from the standpoint that there is no formula that proves your point. 

You always take the best player available and Elias can argue that’s exactly what he has done.

Regarding your second sentence, I don’t disagree with that. BPA should be on a T-Shirt. Regarding your first, I said earlier that theres probably some research somewhere, but just looking at how expensive good pitchers are should support my point. We have given tons of money to wrecks, not just because of bad judgement, but because even the wrecks have value.

we don’t need 8 superstars in the field. But we need 2-3 outstanding pitchers. If we focus on pitching( as much as possible. I do agree with BPA) we will probably be able to accommodate our needs without having to sign a huge FA contract, which we can’t afford anyway, or trade for an expensive star.

The Rays have a great system. There’s a lot here we should emulate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Yes. Putting aside the draft order machinations and paying over-slot for lower picks. You could still argue it allowed him to pick the best draft class available. 

If another couple drafts take place and a clear pattern emerges, I’ll revisit.

I didn’t follow the draft much beforehand, so I didn’t develop any sense of guys we “had to have”( although I sure remember the screaming)Three of the four picks after our #2 were pitchers, so obviously Mike didn’t want them, for whatever reason. We only picked one single pitcher, and that was a high school guy. Maybe for Mike, establishing a solid infield is key at this time? I dunno. We already have tons of pitching to evaluate? I just hope he drafts pitching wherever possible.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Yeah ... it’s like putting brakes on your car and buying the cheap no name pad and hoping it will work like the premium Knorr brake pad 

No it’s not 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No it’s not 

Sure 

 

What is the hit rate on the 17/18 year old DR prospects that get $80,000 Prado or $275,000 Romero.

The percentage is very low. In fact, only 2% of DR players end up making a living playing baseball. 
 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Sure 

 

What is the hit rate on the 17/18 year old DR prospects that get $80,000 Prado or $275,000 Romero.

The percentage is very low. In fact, only 2% of DR players end up making a living playing baseball. 
 

 

So?  What’s the hit rate on any prospect?  Your chances are low regardless.

Instead of getting one or 2 Cody Carroll clones, he went with guys with a lot of room for growth in their games who could be big prospects down the road.

Give me as many as those guys as possible over the going nowhere Cody Carroll’s of the world.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Philip said:

Well the logic should be obvious, if you have a given draft pick, you have a certain amount of money to put spend on the pic, and every pic is risky. Every pic is potentially wasted, the reward for a good pitching choice is greater than the reward for a good hitting choice

Now that does make sense: greater risk, greater reward. So do healthy pitchers make more than healthy batters? Serious question.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, now said:

Now that does make sense: greater risk, greater reward. So do healthy pitchers make more than healthy batters? Serious question.

Ummm I would imagine someone unhealthy wouldn’t make much at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • This is actually incorrect. As of now, there is no DH in the NL in 2021, so he wouldn’t have a ton of value to teams over there.  If NL teams knew the DH was happening for them in 2021, maybe they would have found a suitor. And we don’t know that someone won’t pay him 1-2M in 2021.  We just know that no one was willing to trade for him and pay him that money.  Big difference. In any case, he’s not expensive.  The average MLB salary in 2020 was almost 4.5M.  He would have been paid well under that number.  In fact, with MLB minimum salary close to 600k, he will get paid much closer to the minimum salary than the average salary.  So no, he’s not expensive at all.
    • Honestly, I think Kramer is the best bet.I don’t think taking a player like Diaz or a player like Santana who hasn’t played above Short season A.    Being forced to keep Davis again leaves the Os short already and taking another player who’s not ready and will likely struggle mightily at the plate doesn’t make sense.    According to MLB.com Santana ranks 45/45/45 in run field and arm. He over performed with the bat early but hit .267 /.337 /.329 in 2019. I can’t see how he would stick. As for Diaz,  he hit .264/.307/.430 ....He’d likely be worse than Ruiz.  
    • We  have seen this before.   Elias claims a guy and then passes him through waivers.   Or attempts to.   Shaw is no different from Hector Velazquez, Urena, Hanhold, or  Diplan,  He tried to do the same with Alberto but he got claimed and Elias had to reclaim him.    Shaw is cheap, has an option so adds organization flexibility and could be recalled as a DH if the O's have a bunch of injuries.   I don't think he stays on the major league roster just like these other waiver claims.  Nunez is a guy Elias had to make a call on whether he fit with all the other players that have more potential to hit and play better defense.  Was he worth the money and the roster spot?  Elias decided he was not.  The O's would not have the at bats available for him to be productive.
    • Well, all 30 Major League Baseball front offices agreed with the notion that he was too expensive at his likely arbitration pricetag for the minimal value he offers, so...
    • I don't think the decision to let Nunez go is related to this flyer at all.  This is merely a low-cost, no-risk flyer IMO.  Nunez was gone before Elias even knew Shaw would be placed on waivers by the Giants, so there is no reason to think the plan was to release Nunez and replace him in the lineup with Shaw.  As you said, Shaw is left-handed, has an option, and is cheap.  I don't think it is any more complicated than that.   There's a good chance IMO that, as other moves are made, Shaw ends up DFA and we try to pass him thru waivers and outright him to Norfolk.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...