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Elias: emulating the Rays?

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19 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

So?  What’s the hit rate on any prospect?  Your chances are low regardless.

Instead of getting one or 2 Cody Carroll clones, he went with guys with a lot of room for growth in their games who could be big prospects down the road.

Give me as many as those guys as possible over the going nowhere Cody Carroll’s of the world.

Now every American baseball player thats in his early 20s is a Cody Carroll clone .... Comical Rob

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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Now every American baseball player thats in his early 20s is a Cody Carroll clone .... Comical Rob

No...but he’s the type of player that you likely would have gotten for Cashner had you gotten 1-2 top 30 prospects. 

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11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No...but he’s the type of player that you likely would have gotten for Cashner had you gotten 1-2 top 30 prospects. 

Why are you sp sure?

Maybe you take one mid top 30 like Ortega

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26 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Why are you sp sure?

Maybe you take one mid top 30 like Ortega

I’m so sure because Cashner isn’t good and despite him having a good season, no one was really clamoring for him.  I’m sure because Elias isn’t stupid.  If he could have gotten a good prospect who was more advanced, he would have taken that deal.

This is why Elias took what he did.  2 kids that signed for around 1M each and signed by an organization that has a good eye for talent.  Of course they are likely to flame out but you keep getting these guys and you hope at least 1 pans out in a big way.  Much rather get players like this than what was likely available to them for Cashner in terms of a more advanced prospect.

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I would guess that Elias is emulating the Houston Astros more.  Specifically the 2011-2013 Astros that lost 100+ games/year.  Elias is planning on winning 20 games or less and getting a top 3 pick next year.  The fact that the O's weren't even "able" to sign Puig was a big signal they didn't plan to be competitive.  This team is a collection of waiver wire pickups and journeymen.  The O's big pick up was Iglesias, a glove wizard who can barely hit his weight. 

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7 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The O's big pick up was Iglesias, a glove wizard who can barely hit his weight. 

Iglesias is listed at 195 and is a .275 career hitter.

A incomplete list of players who've failed to hit their listed weight as Orioles (min 20 games played at a position other than pitcher):

                                                                             
Rk             Player HR  Wt   BA From   To   Age   G  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B RBI
1      Dave Nicholson 14 215 .178 1960 1962 20-22 151 335 286 42 51  5  2  26
2    Marv Throneberry  5 190 .190 1961 1962 27-28  65 121 105 10 20  3  0  11
3    Taylor Teagarden  4 210 .162 2012 2013 28-29  45 126 117  7 19  5  0  14
4            Lew Ford  3 200 .183 2012 2012 35-35  25  79  71  7 13  3  0   4
5        Karim Garcia  3 210 .171 2000 2004 24-28  31  89  82  9 14  0  0  11
6          Ryan Minor  3 225 .185 1998 2000 24-26  87 235 222 20 41  9  0  14
7    Calvin Pickering  3 283 .164 1998 1999 21-22  32  75  61  8 10  1  0   8
8          Jim Pyburn  3 190 .190 1955 1957 22-24 158 333 294 36 56  5  5  20
9    Guillermo Quiroz  2 215 .187 2008 2008 26-26  56 149 134 12 25  5  0  14
10         Ron Kittle  2 200 .164 1990 1990 32-32  22  64  61  4 10  2  0   3
11       Colby Rasmus  1 195 .133 2018 2018 31-31  18  49  45  5  6  1  0   1
12        Drew Stubbs  0 205 .136 2016 2016 31-31  20  27  22  1  3  0  0   1
13      Justin Turner  0 202 .111 2009 2010 24-25  17  31  27  2  3  0  0   3
14      Mike Anderson  0 200 .094 1978 1978 27-27  53  36  32  2  3  0  1   3

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I was wrong about Iglesias batting average, but he is unlikely to be a middle of the order hitter.  I think the O's are much more likely to be a last place team than a .500 team.  When your rotation is depending on guys like LeBlanc and Milone, bad things are going to happen. 

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6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m so sure because Cashner isn’t good and despite him having a good season, no one was really clamoring for him.  I’m sure because Elias isn’t stupid.  If he could have gotten a good prospect who was more advanced, he would have taken that deal.

This is why Elias took what he did.  2 kids that signed for around 1M each and signed by an organization that has a good eye for talent.  Of course they are likely to flame out but you keep getting these guys and you hope at least 1 pans out in a big way.  Much rather get players like this than what was likely available to them for Cashner in terms of a more advanced prospect.

I would argue that Elias is a good data guy and perhaps not a good negotiator. I'm not excited about the Bundy trade, Villar Trade, and Cashner trade. It will be interesting to see if he got anything worthwhile for Bleier. Rebuilding scouting, the International market, and player development staff doesn't require him to be good at trades.

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5 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I would argue that Elias is a good data guy and perhaps not a good negotiator. I'm not excited about the Bundy trade, Villar Trade, and Cashner trade. It will be interesting to see if he got anything worthwhile for Bleier. Rebuilding scouting, the International market, and player development staff doesn't require him to be good at trades.

I think thats an awful argument because we don't really know anything. 

You just named 1 mediocre at best player, a middling starter who was losing velocity and always teetering on disaster in Baltimore and a MIer who as expensive albeit coming off of a nice year.  No one was beating down the door for any of these guys.

The market is what it is.  I think the issue here is that you are just flat out overrating these players.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I think thats an awful argument because we don't really know anything. 

You just named 1 mediocre at best player, a middling starter who was losing velocity and always teetering on disaster in Baltimore and a MIer who as expensive albeit coming off of a nice year.  No one was beating down the door for any of these guys.

The market is what it is.  I think the issue here is that you are just flat out overrating these players.


 

yeah ...I get it. When the Orioles are buying we are playing with fake money and everyone else’s crap is super valuable. When we are selling all of our guys are trash. Heard it for years and don’t buy it. Villar wasn’t/isn’t mediocre. And he was having a great year, Cashner was pitching well and could have finished the year strong. He had a 3.8 ERA with us through 19 starts and 3.40 in 28 starts with Texas in 2017. So stop acting like he was a stiff on a lucky streak. Bundy is a mid 4 starter fly ball pitcher in one of the better hitters parks In baseball. 
 

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8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:


 

yeah ...I get it. When the Orioles are buying we are playing with fake money and everyone else’s crap is super valuable. When we are selling all of our guys are trash. Heard it for years and don’t buy it. Villar wasn’t/isn’t mediocre. And he was having a great year, Cashner was pitching well and could have finished the year strong. He had a 3.8 ERA with us through 19 starts and 3.40 in 28 starts with Texas in 2017. So stop acting like he was a stiff on a lucky streak. Bundy is a mid 4 starter fly ball pitcher in one of the better hitters parks In baseball. 
 

Cashner was over a run under his FIP in Texas. And he did in fact implode after going to Boston. I can’t believe anyone would argue we didn’t get enough for him given we got more than nothing, I’d have assumed he’d have no excess value at all. 
Bundy was pretty much a league average pitcher. Which is fine and has some value, but you’re only getting so much back for that. You’re definitely underrating the return since Tony and Luke both liked Peek the best yet you called him filler. 
Villar. He was fine and he did have a good year last year but it seemed like a career year and you couldn’t really expect much excess value over what he was making. I would have preferred to keep him over what we got though simply just for the enjoyment of watching games. 

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16 minutes ago, makoman said:

Cashner was over a run under his FIP in Texas. And he did in fact implode after going to Boston. I can’t believe anyone would argue we didn’t get enough for him given we got more than nothing, I’d have assumed he’d have no excess value at all. 
Bundy was pretty much a league average pitcher. Which is fine and has some value, but you’re only getting so much back for that. You’re definitely underrating the return since Tony and Luke both liked Peek the best yet you called him filler. 
Villar. He was fine and he did have a good year last year but it seemed like a career year and you couldn’t really expect much excess value over what he was making. I would have preferred to keep him over what we got though simply just for the enjoyment of watching games. 

Imploding in Boston has no effect on his value before the trade. 2018 was not a good year for him, I agree. But 2019 and 2017 included 47 starts at a 3.6 ERA that you can’t discount. I’m saying I didn’t like what Elias got in return. With your position that he was worth little more than nothing makes this discussion futile.

For Bundy , I would’ve preferred more quality and less quantity. I get the throw enough shit against the wall approach. I just don’t like it.

As for Villar, I agree we should’ve kept him if the return wasn’t good. I said so many times. But his career year was 2016 and 2029 was  also very good. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:


 

yeah ...I get it. When the Orioles are buying we are playing with fake money and everyone else’s crap is super valuable. When we are selling all of our guys are trash. Heard it for years and don’t buy it. Villar wasn’t/isn’t mediocre. And he was having a great year, Cashner was pitching well and could have finished the year strong. He had a 3.8 ERA with us through 19 starts and 3.40 in 28 starts with Texas in 2017. So stop acting like he was a stiff on a lucky streak. Bundy is a mid 4 starter fly ball pitcher in one of the better hitters parks In baseball. 
 

1). Did you really just mention Cashners stats 2 years before he was dealt?  That means nothing.

2) Villar had such a good year that no one wanted him at the deadline and they struggled to find anyone who would take him in the offseason.  Obviously people didn’t buy into that season, at least not to give up good talent AND pay him 8m.  The biggest issue I had with Villar is that they were acting, at least in the local press, that he was getting 10M because MLBTR said so.  That was always wrong and I don’t get why they kept quoting it.

3). Right..Bundy was nothing special and was not in the right park for his skill set.  He wasn’t nothing but he wasn’t great and you weren’t going to get a ton for him.  You could argue they should have kept him and see what happened this year but I don’t have an issue trading Him.

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