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MLB.com - Orioles Worst to First?

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Fangraphs has our odds of the playoffs at 9.8% as of today.   It was 4.8% after Sunday’s win.    I’m not sure what happened yesterday to double our chances, but I’ll take it!

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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

Fangraphs has our odds of the playoffs at 9.8% as of today. It was 4.8% after Sundays win. I’m not sure what happened yesterday to double our chances, but I’ll take it !!!

 

o

 

Perhaps they weren't sure whether or not the proposed 4-game series with the Marlins would come to fruition after Sunday's win, and now they know for sure that it will ???

 

o

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9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fangraphs has our odds of the playoffs at 9.8% as of today.   It was 4.8% after Sunday’s win.    I’m not sure what happened yesterday to double our chances, but I’ll take it!

In a 60 game season, one win is like a series sweep. Each win is that much more evidence that we could be for real, plus gets us that much closer to our magic number. 27-25 does seem a bit more doable than 28-24.  

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4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

In a 60 game season, one win is like a series sweep. Each win is that much more evidence that we could be for real, plus gets us that much closer to our magic number. 27-25 does seem a bit more doable than 28-24.  

Doesn't that also mean that each loss is like getting swept?

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Its not really a worst to first scenario.     More like a worst in the division to 2nd if it happens.

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If they can get hot enough during the season to make it into the playoffs that’d be exciting and all but it’ll be a real disappointment next year when we’ve gotta play another 162 game season and we realize this team is still not very good. Not to mention it’s gotta be stressing Elias out to think we could potentially not be picking in the top 10 next draft. Which brings the question...is an abbreviated and largely pointless season where the O’s play well worth it if it means taking a hit to the big picture? I think so, but I’m a fan and I just like to watch them win no matter what. The front office might think differently and we may see more Bleier type trades to try to pull the rug out from the good vibes.

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It is very early, but I think our very early good start reflects a MLB team that is trying to win every game and a front office that is supporting that team at least through the analytics group.  It is difficult to imagine any positive results where we actually escape the worst five teams in the league, especially after losing Villar and Mancini.  

We do have some guys on the roster with upside and it is Ruiz and Alberto with the early start and, as the article mentions, Iglesias has not been a positive hitter since 2013 - lol!  

From a 10,000 foot view, I have to think positive early kudos should go to our analytics group.  The strong K rates from a bunch of re-tread SPs is an indication to me that our FO/analytics group is capable of coaching up some guys.

Let's feast on some Marlins soon!

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35 minutes ago, oriole said:

If they can get hot enough during the season to make it into the playoffs that’d be exciting and all but it’ll be a real disappointment next year when we’ve gotta play another 162 game season and we realize this team is still not very good. Not to mention it’s gotta be stressing Elias out to think we could potentially not be picking in the top 10 next draft. Which brings the question...is an abbreviated and largely pointless season where the O’s play well worth it if it means taking a hit to the big picture? I think so, but I’m a fan and I just like to watch them win no matter what. The front office might think differently and we may see more Bleier type trades to try to pull the rug out from the good vibes.

Elias has said he wants to establish something like the Tampa model where you are playing competitive baseball while also maintaining a constant influx of new talent. I don't think you have to pick #1 to do that. In fact he should relish the thought of finding value with lower picks. 

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52 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

 

In a 60 game-season, one win is like a series sweep. Each win is that much more evidence that we could be for real, plus gets us that much closer to our magic number. 27-25 does seem a bit more doable than 28-24.  

 

 

 

48 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

Doesn't that also mean that each loss is like getting swept ???

 

o

 

Yes ........ so let's extrapolate, and assert that 5 sweeps in like winning 15 games, and that 3 sweeps (going the other way) is like losing 9 games.

So the Orioles are essentially 15-9 overall, 40% into this pandemic-shortened season ........ fun with numbers, albeit completely divorced from reality.

 

o

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1 hour ago, Enjoy Terror said:

 

ESPN said that we were the 30thobest team, and they're never wrong.

 

o

 

 

o

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9 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

 

o

I enjoyed that a lot, even though I don’t really care for football. But I watched so much Steve Sabol andHarry Kalas. What I remember is that they constantly spoke of the teams of the 70s, And always ended with the hated Steelers.

Edited by Philip

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8 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Elias has said he wants to establish something like the Tampa model where you are playing competitive baseball while also maintaining a constant influx of new talent. I don't think you have to pick #1 to do that. In fact he should relish the thought of finding value with lower picks. 

The Cardinals never have a low pick, and yet they have a wonderful farm and consistent success

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