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It's time for the OH to turn the page

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

No, I’m calling Lakins and Sulser that..and it’s more metaphorical than anything, so no need to get all sensitive about it.  You had never heard of these guys prior to them signing here, so while you may want to be the president of their fan club, even you should be able to admit that it’s unlikely they ever become anything given their pro history.

Means’ velocity increase is probably the best part of this season, assuming he can sustain it.

And that was evidently him throwing at a mattress and not the Orioles.

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16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And that was evidently him throwing at a mattress and not the Orioles.

Correct.  

But maybe Holt picked out the mattress?!?

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I can understand not thinking your team is blossoming. But they're obviously over-achieving at the moment. And it's kinda fun. Or at least it could be.

I really don't understand the need to spit on your team every five minutes.

Like you have to validate your baseball knowledge by taking a steaming dump on anything good your team might be doing, because history says they shouldn't be doing it.

I guess I don't get it...  but I'm a fan, not a self-styled analyst... so maybe I'm missing something.

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9 minutes ago, owknows said:

I can understand not thinking your team is blossoming. But they're obviously over-achieving at the moment. And it's kinda fun. Or at least it could be.

I really don't understand the need to spit on your team every five minutes.

Like you have to validate your baseball knowledge by taking a steaming dump on anything good your team might be doing, because history says they shouldn't be doing it.

I guess I don't get it...  but I'm a fan, not a self-styled analyst... so maybe I'm missing something.

Now to me that sounds like your saying this other person you are talking about isn't a fan.  Just because they don't act like you do?  Maybe I'm missing something.

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Now to me that sounds like your saying this other person you are talking about isn't a fan.  Just because they don't act like you do?  Maybe I'm missing something.

I guess I always figured fans were the people who wished their team well, and looked forward to their success. Not that there's anything wrong with discussing your team's strengths and weaknesses. But brow-beating anyone with an optimistic outlook seems a little over the top.

Just an observation. Do with it as you choose.

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3 minutes ago, owknows said:

I guess I always figured fans were the people who wished their team well, and looked forward to their success. Not that there's anything wrong with discussing your team's strengths and weaknesses. But brow-beating anyone with an optimistic outlook seems a little over the top.

Just an observation. Do with it as you choose.

And him calling me slow and saying I need help is somehow acceptable, because he's optimistic? 

My issue isn't with his optimism, it's with the idea that he never supports any of his opinions.

"I see them and they look much better."

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And him calling me slow and saying I need help is somehow acceptable, because he's optimistic? 

My issue isn't with his optimism, it's with the idea that he never supports any of his opinions.

"I see them and they look much better."

I am not speaking in defense of anyone's bad behavior. (and I was reluctant to comment at all, for fear that I would become a lightning rod for the hostility)...

 

But it seemed to me that if I were a young Baltimore Oriole ballplayer reading some of this, I'd think my fans weren't exactly in my corner. I understand the nature of a rebuilding club, and I understand that bad teams of part of that. But part of that is knowing that there's a corner to be turned. And honestly, none of us really know when that's going to happen. Not you, not me, not the club.

If the team happens to piece together a little early success, why not be happy about that? Why not entertain a discussion or two about the possibility that some of their journeymen are overachieving... and might even have enough years of team control yet to usher in the young arms and position players that are coming...?

Maybe there's some underlying bad blood and history here that I'm not privy to. But from where I sit, it just looks like the two guys in the muppet show balcony talking about how the O's suck, and here's why.

 

Again, just my two cents.

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1 minute ago, owknows said:

I am not speaking in defense of anyone's bad behavior. (and I was reluctant to comment at all, for fear that I would become a lightning rod for the hostility)...

 

But it seemed to me that if I were a young Baltimore Oriole ballplayer reading some of this, I'd think my fans weren't exactly in my corner. I understand the nature of a rebuilding club, and I understand that bad teams of part of that. But part of that is knowing that there's a corner to be turned. And honestly, none of us really know when that's going to happen. Not you, not me, not the club.

If the team happens to piece together a little early success, why not be happy about that? Why not entertain a discussion or two about the possibility that some of their journeymen are overachieving... and might even have enough years of team control yet to usher in the young arms and position players that are coming...?

Maybe there's some underlying bad blood and history here that I'm not privy to. But from where I sit, it just looks like the two guys in the muppet show balcony talking about how the O's suck, and here's why.

 

Again, just my two cents.

You aren't defending it but you sure aren't calling it out.  Yet you feel a need to comment on less sunshine and rainbow comments.  I find that interesting.

If any young player is hanging out here he's getting a lot more fair shake then he would be anywhere else on the internet.  If Tommy Milone can't handle the idea that some of us don't think his success is sustainable he should stay off the internet.

Once again it isn't optimism I have an issue with, not sure why I need to repeat myself on this.  It's the fact that stuff just gets spouted without any supporting information and then they get offended when you call them out.

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You aren't defending it but you sure aren't calling it out.  Yet you feel a need to comment on less sunshine and rainbow comments.  I find that interesting.

If any young player is hanging out here he's getting a lot more fair shake then he would be anywhere else on the internet.  If Tommy Milone can't handle the idea that some of us don't think his success is sustainable he should stay off the internet.

Once again it isn't optimism I have an issue with, not sure why I need to repeat myself on this.  It's the fact that stuff just gets spouted without any supporting information and then they get offended when you call them out.

You can question my motives.  No skin off my nose.

I really don't care about your squabbles.

I was commenting on the degree of negativity directed at the club. Your squabbles with others didn't enter into the picture for me. I didn't notice or care.

I you want to personalize it that's on you.

 

I said what I wanted to say on the subject.

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1 minute ago, owknows said:

You can question my motives.  No skin off my nose.

I really don't care about your squabbles.

I was commenting on the degree of negativity directed at the club. Your squabbles with others didn't enter into the picture for me. I didn't notice or care.

I you want to personalize it that's on you.

 

I said what I wanted to say on the subject.

Do you think I'm factually incorrect in any of my comments?

If so, which.

If not, I don't see why you should have an issue.  Unless you just want to tell other people how to fan.

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In a regular 162-game season, I often observe that our posters who tend to rely heavily on the metrics (for their determination on whether to be optimistic about the team) will wait til at least half the season is gone before they start to draw any conclusions about how the team is doing. Sometimes they'll make an earlier call if the team starts out extremely bad or good out of the gate, but usually they reserve judgment for as long as possible.

To these folks, the entire season will be a "SSS". On top of that, we're making history here -- there has never been a 60 game season in the modern era. There have been a large number of rule changes in recent years, starting with challenges and video review, and culminating in the leadoff guy on 2nd in extras. We can only guess how all these factors will come together to change the dynamics of the game, and even after the season's over, the conclusions we draw will not be well-substantiated due to the relative lack of data that a mere 60 games can provide.

For the folks who refuse to get excited until there's a statistically significant track record to suggest that we have something special, they may spend this entire season just shrugging their shoulders, then blink and notice that it's over (or that the O's are in the expanded postseason). To them I say: that's their right. I don't care.

But I'm excited, and hopeful that this ragtag crew will be something special in 2020. I don't care if Sulser or Severino isn't part of the solution in 2022 or 2025. I'm fine with Elias continuing to make moves with the assumption that we are in rebuild mode. I'm fine with folks not even caring about this season because it's weird, and because the confluence of factors that made this season what it is probably won't happen again. 

Just to fully lay out my view: I'm totally fine if Elias makes trade moves that harm the O's chances of winning in 2020, if it'll help the club long term. I hope they can win in 2020 despite that. Obviously, I will be upset if I feel that Elias made a move that's not helping us at all (either now or later), but if there's a convincing case that we can give up someone today to have a significant boost tomorrow, I still say go for it.

I'm just living in the moment, taking it day by day, and enjoying our baseball team's success right now. Someone's gotta root for these guys! :)

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2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

This is what I love about statcast. Arguments over how good a guy is can be viewed through the metrics so lets; look at both Cole Sulser and Travis Lakins.

First, let's look at movement of pitches and outcomes

Sulser              MPH      vertmov       %vs Avg          hormov       %vs Avg      xBA    XWOBA       EV     LA
4-seam            94.1         2.3               15%                  2.9                39%           .326      .497         93.1     19
changeup        86.2        -2.6                -9%                  2.8                21%          .058      .059         82.7      8
Slider                87.3         -4                 -12%                -0.9               -21%         .200      .239          68.2     -9 (groundballs)

Sulser's fastball has above average vertical and horizontal movement but he gets hit fairly hard which suggest his location is not very good. 
His changeup gets above avg horizontal movement but below average vert mov. Batters don't hit the pitch hard.
The slider is below average in movement and little hard, but he gets groundballs off the pitch and they don't make good contact. 

Lakins            
4-seam           92.8          -1.4             -9%                   -1.7                 -26%          .303     .285        90         6
cutter              89.9         -1.1              -5%                    1.1                  40%          .324     .407        94.3     10
Curveball       80              3.4               7%                    2.8                  34%          .453     .431        82.5      -4       
change           86.6          2.4               8%                    1.3                   9%           .203     .192         84         24

By movement Lakins curveball is his best pitch and the best EV, but he's made some mistakes with pitch and been hit. The 4-seamer is below average in movement and EV, but batters don't get much LA off the pitch and it's been fairly effective.

Sulser looks to have the better pure stuff on movement but he needs to find a way to make less mistakes with his 4-seamer. Lakins may have more success on a long relief role but the fact that his best movement pitch is also the one he's made the most mistakes on this year makes him a little shaky. 

Overall, I don't think either is more than a middle reliever and probably not part of a winning future here.

Note: xWOBA is quality of contact stat with .326 being major league average. Expected BA (xBA) MLB average is .247. 88.2 is average exit velocity.

 

I remember being enthusiastic about Sulser, and I was very happy when you expressed enthusiasm as well back in February because I felt that I had picked a winner. Based on this post, you seem a little bit less enthusiastic, wondering if you’ve backed off your initial enthusiasm, or if I misread it in the first place?

Scott Is Pitching a little bit better, but he still walks guys, Castro is either really on or really off. Sulser Was overthrowing tonight, according to Ben, And I don’t know what causes that, but I am assuming it is adrenaline, which means it’s a mental thing, so if he could calm down a bit he could be more reliable? I still think he or Armstrong is the main guy at the moment?

Edited by Philip

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10 hours ago, owknows said:

You can question my motives.  No skin off my nose.

I really don't care about your squabbles.

I was commenting on the degree of negativity directed at the club. Your squabbles with others didn't enter into the picture for me. I didn't notice or care.

I you want to personalize it that's on you.

 

I said what I wanted to say on the subject.

I think that if you read the board over a long period of time that this is a very realistic place about the Orioles fortunes.  There are some posters here who are tremendously optimistic, even in the worst most chaotic years projecting a winning record and an almost immediate turn-around.  There are some who desperately, repeatedly emplored the team to be torn down into its constituent parts and sold off for scrap in the middle of the 2014 pennant race.  But the consensus is pretty solid.  As a group we usually don't get caught up in two week hot streaks or slumps; we have pretty good checks and balances. 

This Oriole team has 50-win talent.  It's a team that was terrible last year, subtracted three major pieces, and only added waiver-wire type players to fill out the squad.

They can be tremendously fun to watch, last night was a heck of a ballgame even if it ended after my bedtime.  And in a bizarro-world 60-game schedule and opponents with stars opting out maybe they somehow back into the 15th or 16th playoff spot, although that's pretty unlikely.  But it doesn't change the fact that this is a team of players with multi-year track records of being one that's essentially tanking.

You don't have to put on blinders and pretend they're something they're not to enjoy their successes.  If the players rely on wildly unrealistic internet commentary to get through the day they have more problems than I thought.

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