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O's need to go 12-9 to avoid a sell off.

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I'm of the opinion that Elias will be listening closely to offers for anyone on the roster regardless of what our record is in this truncated season. I don't think having a fluke of a winning record changes his mindset on roster management this year one bit.

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Money:

The owners want money. I question how many of them would Rather win, if winning cost them money.

With that in mind, it stands to reason they’ll only make moves this summer if they can make money off of those moves.

there’s no concession money, no parking money, there’s no ticket sales there’s nothing except advertising money, and that would arguably be less because the playoffs are so diluted this year. Therefore it also stands to reason that they won’t feel much incentive to make impact moves.

That could actually be good for the Orioles, because those teams might be willing to incrementally improve rather than making a big blockbuster.

But that means anybody approaching the Orioles is going to be wanting to give up prospects who are far away; high risk and high reward.

Ergo, I anticipate a lot of interest in our better guys, but not any immediate excitement coming back in the event of a trade.

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16 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Not necessarily. He could just have easily been worn down by the end of the year given the rigors of a full college season, multiple levels of the minors, the award circuit, media associated with being 1-1 (and the travel), etc. Or numbers are random flukish chance in SSS.

But this all sounds like excuses.  We have seen plenty of elite college guys go through the same thing and be fine.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

But this all sounds like excuses.  We have seen plenty of elite college guys go through the same thing and be fine.

If you are worried about Adley based on the SSS we've seen after coming off of mono, I don't think anyone can say anything that would ease your concern.  Unfortunately, there is no minor league season this year, so you just have to wait until next year before he might do something to make you feel better about him.  Me?  I'm not worried about him at this point.

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1 minute ago, Number5 said:

If you are worried about Adley based on the SSS we've seen after coming off of mono, I don't think anyone can say anything that would ease your concern.  Unfortunately, there is no minor league season this year, so you just have to wait until next year before he might do something to make you feel better about him.  Me?  I'm not worried about him at this point.

Who said I was worried?  
 

 

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2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Pitching is in demand at the deadline.   Probably  even more this season because more teams will be in contention for playoff spots.    Elias is not going to be asking for major league players in return.  He is going to be asking for prospects that fit his evaluation criteria.   Players like Bradish who seem like nothing special to most but who Elias added to the 60 man roster because he sees something in him.

I think Elias has shown in the last year that he believes in his evaluation criteria even when it go against what the rest of the league thinks.  He proves that in the draft and in the Bundy trade IMO.  And he is proving every day how he can take players that other teams quit on and make them successful.

 

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I can't see the O's trading Means.  They need more like Means not less.

If they're not trading Means who are selling off?  The staff is Means, Cobb, Givens and a bunch of waiver wire fodder.  I don't think the O's record in the next two or three weeks has much of anything to do with whether or not they trade Givens and Cobb. 

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1 hour ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

I'm of the opinion that Elias will be listening closely to offers for anyone on the roster regardless of what our record is in this truncated season. I don't think having a fluke of a winning record changes his mindset on roster management this year one bit.

Yep. He said O's are moving in the direction of the Tampa model. High turnover, constant influx of talent. If there is an opportunity to get return on guys like Cobb, Givens, or Iglesias, I would expect him to take it. Tougher call on guys like Alberto and Castro who are into arbitration but aren't close to free agency yet. I don't see any way we trade Means who is not even close to free agency and could build value. 

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I wonder if uncertainty that the season finishes will play into the deadline. Might have to be a player the trade partner would get to have beyond this season. If that's the case, Means and Cobb could be attractive. Iglesias could return a flier similar to the Cashner return. However, I think he can have an immensely positive impact on developing our pitchers with his work in the field. From what I've read, a lot of people were not convinced by Means' performance last year. If he can hold this new velocity then I would imagine that would change.

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3 hours ago, O-The-Memories said:

Rutschman is a huge concern for me. You can't sell low on him, but there has to be real concern with his lack of performance. 

Yeah he just hasn't been hitting in the minors this year.  😄

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3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

But this all sounds like excuses.  We have seen plenty of elite college guys go through the same thing and be fine.

He had mono. 

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8 hours ago, wildcard said:

The trade deadline is August 31st.   The O's have 21 games in 21 days through the rest  of August.   Elias is still looking to the future.    There is a real possibility that core players get traded this month.     The only way to avoid that is to show  Elias that this current team can play .570 baseball .   .500  baseball will not do it even if would win a playoff spot IMO.   .570 baseball is 92 wins in a normal season.   

Cobb - Salary and age

 Milone and LeBlanc - FA after the season

 Givens - Salary and age

 Armstrong and Wojo - Age,  no options, Arbitration eligible

Are the most likely to go if anyone offers something that Elias wants for the future.

The team is proving that its not as far away from contention as previously thought so I don't see many of the other players being made available unless some team overpays big time.

This is all JMO.

 

So we are 11-9 and playing on August 31.   It's a long game, and it's about 11:45 PM.   Elias is on the phone, we're down 3-2 in the 9th inning and we've got a man on a man on.   Elias says -- wait, I have to see what happens here.   It's a fly ball, deep to center field, the fielder is going back.... it bounces off his head!!!  .... will it go over the fence or not?   Will Cobb stay an Oriole or be dealt to the Braves?   Everyone holds their breath.

The ball comes back down and falls in the dazed centerfielder's glove.   Elias says  you got a deal!

or

The ball bounces off the fielder's head and goes over the fence.   Elias says no deal buddy!   We're contenders.   And slams the phone down.

Yep, that's just how I'd run a major league baseball team.

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Guys, I knew they weren't playing ball in the minors this year, but my statements about Rutschman aren't unfounded, and I'm not the only one that thinks this way. When Baseball America says that someone is the best prospect since Bryce Harper, I think seeing struggles in the low minors are a legit concern. I'm concerned about Hays too even though he had limited at bats this year too. Hitting under .600 in Delmarva isn't good, 46 at bats or not. He's still an amazing prospect, but there is some cause for concern with me. How can you blame me after seeing so many prospects flame out? 

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5 hours ago, SteveA said:

 

So, we are 11-9 and playing on August 31st. It's a long game, and it's about 11:45 PM. Elias is on the phone, we're down by a score of 3-2 in the 9th inning, and we've got a man on. Elias says ------ wait, I have to see what happens here. It's a fly ball, deep to center field, the fielder is going back ...... it bounces off his head !!!  Will it go over the fence or not ??? Will Cobb stay an Oriole, or be dealt to the Braves ???  Everyone holds their breath.

The ball comes back down and falls into the dazed centerfielder's glove. Elias says,  "You've got a deal !!!"

llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll OR

The ball bounces off of the fielder's head, and goes over the fence. Elias says, "No deal, buddy !!! We're contenders." And slams the phone down.

Yep, that's just how I'd run a Major League baseball team.

 

o

 

Tonight's game ........tonight's game would have been the quintessential example of that scenario coming to fruition.

Could you imagine if the Orioles are 11-9 after 20 games, and then they had a game play out PRECISELY like tonight's game did ??? Elias would have been continually picking the telephone up and hanging back up again every few minutes over the final 4 innings of the game.

 

o

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  • Posts

    • I'm not proclaiming him guilty of anything. My first post I said " If true boy was that a stupid thing to do." My second post I said " his alleged activity". Obviously evidence is scant at the moment and this might be something more in the lines of a clerical mistake or nothing at all.  
    • Lot of great points here. I agree and I'll wait for all the facts to come out. My guess the Orioles get a fine and this was used to be leverage the Astros situation for a sensational news story when things are quiet outside of the World Series that few actually care about.
    • Exactly. COVID restrictions really stopped the travel back and forth so it probably didn't make since to have Holt with the team and the minor leaguers. Either way, fraud is a really strong word to use and reeks of click bait by the NY Post.
    • That’s the thing, we have no idea when Holt was added to the coaches pension plan.  If it was when he was first hired in 2019 then it would seem more egregious, but if it was before this season as part of his promotion to Director of Pitching, then it seems more palatable, as his role was intended to blanket the majors & minors, and it sounds like the plan was for him to be in uniform on occasion, even if not once the game starts, since the number of coaches allowed during a game is limited. I just can’t see Elias potentially risking his career by covertly putting Holt in the coaches pension plan without getting approval from the Orioles HR department, or whoever is responsible for matters like this in the organization, along with MLB.  Elias is a smart guy, and only 2 years into what is likely his dream job as the GM of a Major League Baseball team.   I’m sure the other 3 coaches that were designated had to be approved as well, so if there was any issue with designating Holt as the 4th coach, you would think Elias and the O’s organization would have been told that when they first put him on the list of 4. To me, this article seems more like sensationalism, trying to tie Elias in with the Astros cheating scandal and making it seem like this situation with Holt is more of the same, as if anyone associated with the Astros must be deceptive and dishonest.  And the fact that they singled out Anthony Sanders as a coach that got  “screwed” seems like the lawsuit/claim of fraud could have come from his agent, because clearly this story was leaked by someone with an axe to grind.  But what if Holt was designated the 4th coach before Sanders got hired?  The point is, we don’t have all the facts, so to just assume Elias did this covertly to appease Holt without getting approval from anyone seems very irresponsible from a journalistic perspective.   Just the fact that this is being reported at all is obviously unsettling if you’re an O’s fan and a supporter of Elias, but I think this is more about sensationalism and click bait, by using the headline “Ex-Astros” and “fraud” to get people worked up about what is likely not much of anything.  It will be interesting to see if Elias or someone else with the organization talks about it and tries to clear it up, because you know that if he/they don’t, more and more people will start to wonder if this really could be a much more serious situation than it currently appears to be.
    • Yea, seems like an administrative issue with a potential fine at most. 
    • Remember when James Franklin was supposed to be the coach in waiting then wasn't? Lord almighty the MD decision makers for sports are awful.  BTW, Tagovailoa is awful. He looks scared, unprepared, inaccurate, and has really poor decision making skills. Good Lord, this is the guy who is the best they can find with all the transfers? Nice job there Locksley.
    • I am sorry but the word Fraud here is a little strong.  There are rules on which coaches can be listed to be eligible for the MLB pension and there maybe a question whether or not his role this past season qualifies or not.  I suspect the fact there were no minor leagues and the whole COVID situation may have changed what that role end up being probably is a factor.  To me fraud would be an intention to deceive what his role was, not whether it qualifies or not.  However in the world we live in today I guess it pays to use words like fraud. It makes the story more interesting. 
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