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Frobby

Real/not real?

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Some comparisons of O’s OPS performances last year vs. the first 20 games this year.   Obviously nobody expects these hitters to keep up the pace, but for which of them do we think there has been real improvement, vs. just being on a nice hot streak?   For a reality check, I’ve also listed the hottest month each player had last year, and then their wOBA vs. xwOBA for this year.     

Severino .740/.942.   910 in April 2019, .398/.375 wOBA vs xwOBA in 2020.

Ruiz .682/.950.  .802 in August 2019, .359/.293 wOBA vs. xwOBA in 2020.

Nunez .771/.980.  .955 in July 2019, 420/.360 wOBA vs. xwOBA in  2020.

Alberto .773/.910. .963 in August 2019, .377/.319 wOBA vs. xwOBA in 2020.

Santander .753/.858.  873 in July 2019,  .341/.340 wOBA vs. xwOBA in 2020.

Sisco .729/1.182 — 1.033 in June 2019. .486/.378 wOBA vs. xwOBA in 2020.

As you can see, with the exception of Ruiz, all these guys had a month last year where they were roughly as hot as they’ve been in the first 20 games of 2020.   And, all of them except Santander have a wOBA right now that is significantly higher than their xwOBA, which is generally an indicator of some good luck.    At the same time, the xwOBA figures so far this year are very good, with the exception of Ruiz.   

 Despite his low xwOBA, I tend to think that Ruiz‘s power gain, which really started after he changed his approach after being sent to the minors last year, is real.    I also feel that Sisco has improved on what already was a good knowledge of the strike zone, and seems a more confident hitter.    And finally, Santander just seems to me to be getting better with experience.     So I think all three of those guys are going to show sustained improvement, though obviously nothing like the levels they are at currently.  

Núñez was notoriously hot and cold last year, so he will have to prove he can avoid the ice cold streaks.   Severino seemed like he wore down as the season progressed last year; 60 games won’t be enough to prove he’s overcome that, so we’ll have to see what happens in 2021.    

That leaves Alberto.   He’s hitting in some good fortune right now, but I won’t rule out some improvement from last year.   11 doubles in 20 games is pretty amazing.    

Your thoughts?

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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

 

Real/Not Real ??? 

 

 

o

 

Is it live, or is it Memorex ???

 

 

 

o

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Tier 1 -  Playing their way into Rutschman Supporting Cast of my mind = Ruiz and Santander.  I may have to find someone else than Justin Turner to give our Werth contract to this offseason so we can compete in the Lindor Cohort next offseason.  

Middle Group

-I'm still holding Alberto at arm's length but I probably did Melvin Mora forever too.  Definitely more likely in my mind now than Rylan Bannon to be 2B of the next medium good team.  Somebody observed alligator arms the other day and it made me think of Kirby Puckett.  Extreme contact skill sets might play up as Rhapsodo refinements inch K rates ever higher.

-Nunez fun, but I see him in the mold of Chris Carter, who might be able to pull of the trick of leading the league in HR and being out of the league in any given 2-year span.  Slug on, slugger.

Adley Placeholders - in 2020 catching precious, a couple more weeks of this and Elias might have a genuinely interesting opportunity.  There will be intense "White Sox white flag" gnashing of teeth here if a good Severino and/or Sisco match is found at month end.

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19 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

Is it live, or is it Memorex ???

 

 

 

o

I’m a classic commercial buff and I remember that. Lol

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I don't think anyone expects those six to maintain their current pace.  Maybe one of them does in a 60 game season.  But there will be some coming back down to earth.  

Seems like Ruiz in particular has turned a corner.  Nunez is turning into a legit middle of the order bat.  His pitch selection seems so much better.  

It's not real in that none of these guys can be expected to maintain that pace, but real in the fact that I think all six have proven to be legitimate major league bats and won't fall flat on their faces when they inevitably slow down. 

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14 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Tier 1 -  Playing their way into Rutschman Supporting Cast of my mind = Ruiz and Santander.  I may have to find someone else than Justin Turner to give our Werth contract to this offseason so we can compete in the Lindor Cohort next offseason.  

Middle Group

-I'm still holding Alberto at arm's length but I probably did Melvin Mora forever too.  Definitely more likely in my mind now than Rylan Bannon to be 2B of the next medium good team.  Somebody observed alligator arms the other day and it made me think of Kirby Puckett.  Extreme contact skill sets might play up as Rhapsodo refinements inch K rates ever higher.

-Nunez fun, but I see him in the mold of Chris Carter, who might be able to pull of the trick of leading the league in HR and being out of the league in any given 2-year span.  Slug on, slugger.

Adley Placeholders - in 2020 catching precious, a couple more weeks of this and Elias might have a genuinely interesting opportunity.  There will be intense "White Sox white flag" gnashing of teeth here if a good Severino and/or Sisco match is found at month end.

Excellent post.

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Wasn't Rio optioned last year to work on his swing? He hit 7 of his 12 HR over his last 110 ABs in 2019. With 6 HR in 50 AB's to start this year, I am inclined to buy him as a 20-25 HR guy. Plus he passes the eye test, he just looks like a natural athlete. He also has reverse splits, which is interesting.

We've known Alberto can hit, particularly vs LHP. His ISO-SLG is about double last year which I would expect to level off. Still, I can also buy into incremental improvement with him. 

Big question is whether the team as a whole can sustain this many guys overachieving at the same time. I can buy the individual case for each one but the stars really have to align for the whole team. Still, we've seen it before as recently as 2012.

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I think Ruiz may just be a keeper. Not an all star but he could be a formative piece to the next good Orioles team. I like Nunez and Alberto too but I have my doubts about sustained success. Santander is a head scratcher. How did we get him through the rule 5? He’s supposed to be another Ryan Flaherty level player but yet here he is becoming a mainstay in RF. Who’d have thought? I’m really hoping Sisco has turned a corner. He’s one of the only position players to have actually come up through the O’s system so I feel invested in his success. Same goes for Hays though Hays is proving he can’t be counted on the stay healthy enough to ever become someone you can depend on. 

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1 hour ago, OrioleDog said:

Tier 1 -  Playing their way into Rutschman Supporting Cast of my mind = Ruiz and Santander.  I may have to find someone else than Justin Turner to give our Werth contract to this offseason so we can compete in the Lindor Cohort next offseason.  

Middle Group

-I'm still holding Alberto at arm's length but I probably did Melvin Mora forever too.  Definitely more likely in my mind now than Rylan Bannon to be 2B of the next medium good team.  Somebody observed alligator arms the other day and it made me think of Kirby Puckett.  Extreme contact skill sets might play up as Rhapsodo refinements inch K rates ever higher.

-Nunez fun, but I see him in the mold of Chris Carter, who might be able to pull of the trick of leading the league in HR and being out of the league in any given 2-year span.  Slug on, slugger.

Adley Placeholders - in 2020 catching precious, a couple more weeks of this and Elias might have a genuinely interesting opportunity.  There will be intense "White Sox white flag" gnashing of teeth here if a good Severino and/or Sisco match is found at month end.

If we're doing comps how about the SSS version + eye test, I would offer Nunez as Nelson Cruz, Tanner Scott as Andrew Miller. Getting back, so to speak, even for a glimpse, the ones that got away.

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3 minutes ago, now said:

If we're doing comps how about the SSS version + eye test, I would offer Nunez as Nelson Cruz, Tanner Scott as Andrew Miller. Getting back, so to speak, even for a glimpse, the ones that got away.

Nelson just keeps on keepin' on.  He became the oldest player ever to homer in both games of a doubleheader yesterday.

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Notable about Santander: only 11 strikeouts in 86 PA (12.8%).   That compares to 86 K’s in 405 PA (21.2%) last year.    

On the flip side, Sisco has struck out 12 times in 33 PA, which is actually a higher rate than last year, which already was high.    

None of the other “improved” players shows much change from last year in terms of K rate.   

 

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I swear I posted the Miller comp just BEFORE seeing it echoed by Melewski. But it must have occurred to a lot of folks with yesterday's outing.

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50 minutes ago, oriole said:

I think Ruiz may just be a keeper. Not an all star but he could be a formative piece to the next good Orioles team. I like Nunez and Alberto too but I have my doubts about sustained success. Santander is a head scratcher. How did we get him through the rule 5? He’s supposed to be another Ryan Flaherty level player but yet here he is becoming a mainstay in RF. Who’d have thought? I’m really hoping Sisco has turned a corner. He’s one of the only position players to have actually come up through the O’s system so I feel invested in his success. Same goes for Hays though Hays is proving he can’t be counted on the stay healthy enough to ever become someone you can depend on. 

Santander was injured and had only played in A.  The Inidans took the chance noone would would take him.

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14 minutes ago, VaBird1 said:

Santander was injured and had only played in A.  The Inidans took the chance noone would would take him.

 

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