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Frobby

Real/not real?

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5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Notable about Santander: only 11 strikeouts in 86 PA (12.8%).   That compares to 86 K’s in 405 PA (21.2%) last year.    

On the flip side, Sisco has struck out 12 times in 33 PA, which is actually a higher rate than last year, which already was high.    

None of the other “improved” players shows much change from last year in terms of K rate.   

 

Surprising about Sisco. I thought his K rate was way down.

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This thread poses a very good and very interesting set of questions.

For me, there really isn't much that anyone can do in 200ish at bats this year that will make me believe they are a long term piece.  

All of the players mentioned have some big issues in their games.

Santander and Alberto don't walk.  In the case of Alberto, I don't really care if he walks or not, if he is going to continue to hit 300+.  While it would be nice if he did walk, he will get on base enough, especially for a second baseman.  But his lack of power worries me and makes me wonder if teams will go after him more, since they don't need to respect his power.  If he drops down to just a 280 hitter, which in todays game is very good, he will be a borderline ML starting second baseman.

Santander is showing good power and a good enough BA, especially by todays standards.  But he is still a sub 300 OBP guy.  Will his power start to make pitchers work around him more and that leads him to walk more?  Maybe but I don't think we will really be able to tell that until next year around this time.

Sisco has to show power and he will be fine, offensively...the problem is, where do you play him?

I liked Nunez going into last year.  This is a guy whom the As gave 2.2M to sign when he was 16.  He has power and will take a walk.  His glove isn't great but he is a perfect DH guy.  If he can bring his average up a little...say to that 260 area, he becomes a very valuable offensive player.

Ruiz is the one guy in this group that I feel we can take something from this year.  He is bigger and has been on a role.  He is clearly a different player ever since coming back from the minors last year.  He has been able to carry that into this year.  If he can end this season relatively strong, I will feel pretty good about him being the third baseman next year.

Barring trades, I think these guys are all on the team next year.  Rutschman should push out one of the catchers at some point.  Mountcastle should be here any day.  Diaz should see Baltimore by June.

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This thread poses a very good and very interesting set of questions.

For me, there really isn't much that anyone can do in 200ish at bats this year that will make me believe they are a long term piece.  

All of the players mentioned have some big issues in their games.

Santander and Castillo don't walk.  In the case of Castillo, I don't really care if he walks or not, if he is going to continue to hit 300+.  While it would be nice if he did walk, he will get on base enough, especially for a second baseman.  But his lack of power worries me and makes me wonder if teams will go after him more, since they don't need to respect his power.  If he drops down to just a 280 hitter, which in todays game is very good, he will be a borderline ML starting second baseman.

Santander is showing good power and a good enough BA, especially by todays standards.  But he is still a sub 300 OBP guy.  Will his power start to make pitchers work around him more and that leads him to walk more?  Maybe but I don't think we will really be able to tell that until next year around this time.

Sisco has to show power and he will be fine, offensively...the problem is, where do you play him?

I liked Nunez going into last year.  This is a guy whom the As gave 2.2M to sign when he was 16.  He has power and will take a walk.  His glove isn't great but he is a perfect DH guy.  If he can bring his average up a little...say to that 260 area, he becomes a very valuable offensive player.

Ruiz is the one guy in this group that I feel we can take something from this year.  He is bigger and has been on a role.  He is clearly a different player ever since coming back from the minors last year.  He has been able to carry that into this year.  If he can end this season relatively strong, I will feel pretty good about him being the third baseman next year.

Barring trades, I think these guys are all on the team next year.  Rutschman should push out one of the catchers at some point.  Mountcastle should be here any day.  Diaz should see Baltimore by June.

Hyde was really praising Santander on the post game. When MASN uploads it’s I’ll try and remember to link it. 

Overall I feel pretty much the same. You seem to be a lighter higher on Nunez than me just because he is a DH. That said like you alluded to he walks. He is perfect DH on a rebuilding team. 

Still think Sisco best role is a 3rd C/DH type. Needs to be right fit and with Adley this team may be it.  

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1 hour ago, SilverRocket said:

Santander was seen as a high-upside pick, but far from major-league ready. They managed to stash him on the DL and minimize his ML time.

Player accrued service time which on the DL or IL.

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1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

Hyde was really praising Santander on the post game. When MASN uploads it’s I’ll try and remember to link it. 

Overall I feel pretty much the same. You seem to be a lighter higher on Nunez than me just because he is a DH. That said like you alluded to he walks. He is perfect DH on a rebuilding team. 

As I mentioned in the OP, Nunez had a couple of hellacious cold streaks last year.   But I don’t see anything about his swing or his approach that should cause them. I have some hope that Nunez can modulate them and then he’d really be a force to be reckoned with.   

Last year he had a 19 game (69 PA) stretch where his OPS was .263 and a 15 game stretch (63 PA) where his OPS was .346.     Not many guys get that cold for that sustained a stretch.    Those are Davis-like.   The rest of the time (467 PA he was a .900 OPS guy.     Not saying he could sustain .900 — everyone has their cold streaks — but with just a little modulation of the severity of those slumps he could be an .800+ OPS guy pretty easily (.771 last year).

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41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As I mentioned in the OP, Nunez had a couple of hellacious cold streaks last year.   But I don’t see anything about his swing or his approach that should cause them. I have some hope that Nunez can modulate them and then he’d really be a force to be reckoned with.   

Last year he had a 19 game (69 PA) stretch where his OPS was .263 and a 15 game stretch (63 PA) where his OPS was .346.     Not many guys get that cold for that sustained a stretch.    Those are Davis-like.   The rest of the time (467 PA he was a .900 OPS guy.     Not saying he could sustain .900 — everyone has their cold streaks — but with just a little modulation of the severity of those slumps he could be an .800+ OPS guy pretty easily (.771 last year).

Some of it is simply lack of experience, which is why it’s so hard to know what to believe from these players this year.

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Taking a deeper look at all of these guys historical stats today, I think Severino is the most surprising and feels like the least likely to sustain according to his minor league numbers. What’s wild is a good chunk of these guys pushed their way through minor league systems by age 22. They have similar stories of doing pretty well in the minors but scuffling in the majors in limited appearances. 
 

And just from what I looked at, even Severino’s production last year seems out of nowhere. You could argue he was rushed to the majors and perhaps that hurt his development for a while and his minor league production. 
 

I feel like the rest of the guys could be legitimate role players on our next contending team, at the very least. They all did well in the minors either through their whole careers or at later points and are flashing some tools, now that they’ve been given time to develop. 
 

Which makes me excited. It’s like we’ve hit on a handful of Gio Urshela’s 
 

Edited by Bubble Buddy
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11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Some comparisons of O’s OPS performances last year vs. the first 20 games this year.   Obviously nobody expects these hitters to keep up the pace, but for which of them do we think there has been real improvement, vs. just being on a nice hot streak?   For a reality check, I’ve also listed the hottest month each player had last year, and then their wOBA vs. xwOBA for this year.     

Severino .740/.942.   910 in April 2019, .398/.375 wOBA vs xwOBA in 2020.

Ruiz .682/.950.  .802 in August 2019, .359/.293 wOBA vs. xwOBA in 2020.

Nunez .771/.980.  .955 in July 2019, 420/.360 wOBA vs. xwOBA in  2020.

Alberto .773/.910. .963 in August 2019, .377/.319 wOBA vs. xwOBA in 2020.

Santander .753/.858.  873 in July 2019,  .341/.340 wOBA vs. xwOBA in 2020.

Sisco .729/1.182 — 1.033 in June 2019. .486/.378 wOBA vs. xwOBA in 2020.

As you can see, with the exception of Ruiz, all these guys had a month last year where they were roughly as hot as they’ve been in the first 20 games of 2020.   And, all of them except Santander have a wOBA right now that is significantly higher than their xwOBA, which is generally an indicator of some good luck.    At the same time, the xwOBA figures so far this year are very good, with the exception of Ruiz.   

 Despite his low xwOBA, I tend to think that Ruiz‘s power gain, which really started after he changed his approach after being sent to the minors last year, is real.    I also feel that Sisco has improved on what already was a good knowledge of the strike zone, and seems a more confident hitter.    And finally, Santander just seems to me to be getting better with experience.     So I think all three of those guys are going to show sustained improvement, though obviously nothing like the levels they are at currently.  

Núñez was notoriously hot and cold last year, so he will have to prove he can avoid the ice cold streaks.   Severino seemed like he wore down as the season progressed last year; 60 games won’t be enough to prove he’s overcome that, so we’ll have to see what happens in 2021.    

That leaves Alberto.   He’s hitting in some good fortune right now, but I won’t rule out some improvement from last year.   11 doubles in 20 games is pretty amazing.    

Your thoughts?

My thought is that I’m still salty with Ruiz for that lousy throw...

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This thread makes me wonder where we'd be if we had average play from our 1st base position and - to a lesser extent from LF.  Having said that, I don't know for sure if Mountcastle and Diaz (with Nunez being the everyday 1st baseman) would have provided average play at this point in their careers.   

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8 hours ago, Ruzious said:

This thread makes me wonder where we'd be if we had average play from our 1st base position and - to a lesser extent from LF.  Having said that, I don't know for sure if Mountcastle and Diaz (with Nunez being the everyday 1st baseman) would have provided average play at this point in their careers.   

Offense hasn’t been the problem though.

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Just now, ChosenOne21 said:

No, but more of it could help cover up some other problems

Sure..and I do think we should have Mountcastle and Diaz up here.

Just saying that the issues the team has won’t be resolved by those guys, especially since Mountcastle will probably be a negative with the glove.

If you want to talk about bringing up young players for vets, the talk should be about the young arms coming up imo.

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