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Frobby

Real/not real?

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure..and I do think we should have Mountcastle and Diaz up here.

Just saying that the issues the team has won’t be resolved by those guys, especially since Mountcastle will probably be a negative with the glove.

If you want to talk about bringing up young players for vets, the talk should be about the young arms coming up imo.

I agree. I'd love to see a young pitcher instead of LeBlanc at a minimum.

I can't for the life of me figure out why we're starting Dwight Smith Jr. over Mountcastle in left field unless Mountcastle is looking absolutely lost at the alternate site. He can't possibly be worse defensively, even if he isn't going to win a gold glove out there, and he's at least as good an offensive player today as Smith and with more potential. Plus he's young and actually part of our future. I don't care that Smith is left handed. I think far too big a deal is made of platoon splits in most cases. I think Ryan Mountcastle can probably hit right handed pitching just fine

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49 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I agree. I'd love to see a young pitcher instead of LeBlanc at a minimum.

I can't for the life of me figure out why we're starting Dwight Smith Jr. over Mountcastle in left field unless Mountcastle is looking absolutely lost at the alternate site. He can't possibly be worse defensively, even if he isn't going to win a gold glove out there, and he's at least as good an offensive player today as Smith and with more potential. Plus he's young and actually part of our future. I don't care that Smith is left handed. I think far too big a deal is made of platoon splits in most cases. I think Ryan Mountcastle can probably hit right handed pitching just fine

It almost has to be service time/Super 2 status.  Smith is a DH with a 97 OPS+.  I don't see any performance-based rationale for him playing over Mountcastle or even Diaz.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Mountcastle should be last the super 2 cut off sometime over the next 5 days or so...if he isn’t already past it.

How would we know?    Isn’t the Super-2 cutoff determined by a certain percentage of the players with < 3 years of service who have the most service time?    There’s almost no way to tell when that will be in this environment.    

For what it’s worth, 103 players have made their major league debut already this year.   Last year, it took about 52 games for the 103rd player to debut.    So, lots of guys have been getting their shot.   But it’s probably also the case that lots of guys are riding the shuttle back and forth to the alternate training site.    

The Astros have already debuted 10 new players this year.    The O’s have debuted one (Akin).

 

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9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How would we know?    Isn’t the Super-2 cutoff determined by a certain percentage of the players with < 3 years of service who have the most service time?    There’s almost no way to tell when that will be in this environment.    

For what it’s worth, 103 players have made their major league debut already this year.   Last year, it took about 52 games for the 103rd player to debut.    So, lots of guys have been getting their shot.   But it’s probably also the case that lots of guys are riding the shuttle back and forth to the alternate training site.    

The Astros have already debuted 10 new players this year.    The O’s have debuted one (Akin).

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/super-two
 

yes but the service days are part of this.  If he gets down to closer to the equivalent to 100ish service days, we should be ok.  The super 2 cutoff is usually on the 120-140 day area.

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2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Offense hasn’t been the problem though.

That's no reason to not improve.  It hasn't been a problem, but it could and should be better at 1st base, and defense could and should be better in LF.  

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So, I started this thread after 20 games and now they’ve played another 20.    Here’s the OPS of each player I listed in the OP in the first 20/second 20.

Severino .942/.849

Ruiz .950/.560

Nunez .980/.699

Alberto .910/.600

Santander .858/.926

Sisco 1.182/.671

Team as a whole:

First 20: .797 OPS, 5.35 runs/game

Second 20: .737 OPS, 4.25 runs/game

Overall, you’d have to say the first 20 games were “not real.”    But, there’s still another 20 to go, so we’ll see.    The absence of Santander is going to hurt.  

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On 9/7/2020 at 7:28 AM, Frobby said:

So, I started this thread after 20 games and now they’ve played another 20.    Here’s the OPS of each player I listed in the OP in the first 20/second 20.

Severino .942/.849

Ruiz .950/.560

Nunez .980/.699

Alberto .910/.600

Santander .858/.926

Sisco 1.182/.671

Team as a whole:

First 20: .797 OPS, 5.35 runs/game

Second 20: .737 OPS, 4.25 runs/game

Overall, you’d have to say the first 20 games were “not real.”    But, there’s still another 20 to go, so we’ll see.    The absence of Santander is going to hurt.  

You need to perform the same exercise with the pitching, which appears to be noticeably better, and the defense, which suffered greatly from Iglesias’ absence, in order to accurately assess where the Os are right now.

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On 9/7/2020 at 8:28 AM, Frobby said:

So, I started this thread after 20 games and now they’ve played another 20.    Here’s the OPS of each player I listed in the OP in the first 20/second 20.

Severino .942/.849

Ruiz .950/.560

Nunez .980/.699

Alberto .910/.600

Santander .858/.926

Sisco 1.182/.671

Team as a whole:

First 20: .797 OPS, 5.35 runs/game

Second 20: .737 OPS, 4.25 runs/game

Overall, you’d have to say the first 20 games were “not real.”    But, there’s still another 20 to go, so we’ll see.    The absence of Santander is going to hurt.  

Ruiz is the biggest bummer here. It was looking like he learned how to hit up here, but now I'm not sure. It's tough without a full 162 to judge these things of course. But man he really fell off a cliff. Starting to hit a little bit again, but it still has me looking to Rylan Bannon and, maybe someday, Coby Mayo. 3B is still pretty barren in the system. 

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1 hour ago, interloper said:

Ruiz is the biggest bummer here. It was looking like he learned how to hit up here, but now I'm not sure. It's tough without a full 162 to judge these things of course. But man he really fell off a cliff. Starting to hit a little bit again, but it still has me looking to Rylan Bannon and, maybe someday, Coby Mayo. 3B is still pretty barren in the system. 

I don’t think Nunez will be here next year, nor Davis. Ruiz MIGHT be, but I’m not sure he will survive the season. I don’t know who’s closest. Has Mountcastle auditioned at 3B? Could Valaika do a better job at 3B? Could Hall move over, and is he even old enough yet?
Meanwhile, the team is better, and I hope we don’t sign any expensive FAs for 3B. Even if we stick with Ruiz, at least he’s cheap.

But re: the OP about where the team is now, we’re better now than at season’s outset, and we’re close enough that I’m checking schedules. Remember, we don’t have to catch the Jays, we just have to catch the Yankees, and I think we can do that.

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Just now, Philip said:

I don’t think Nunez will be here next year, nor Davis. Ruiz MIGHT be, but I’m not sure he will survive the season. I don’t know who’s closest. Has Mountcastle auditioned at 3B? Could Valaika do a better job at 3B? Could Hall move over, and is he even old enough yet?
Meanwhile, the team is better, and I hope we don’t sign any expensive FAs for 3B. Even if we stick with Ruiz, at least he’s cheap.

But re: the OP about where the team is now, we’re better now than at season’s outset, and we’re close enough that I’m checking schedules. Remember, we don’t have to catch the Jays, we just have to catch the Yankees, and I think we can do that.

It's Nunez's first arbitration year next season. I think he sticks around for at least next year. He's relatively productive and won't be too expensive. Plus, let's say Davis gets cut or hurt - who's playing 1B if not Nunez? We hope Mancini, but there's no telling what will happen there. Thus, you need some 1B depth. 

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1 hour ago, interloper said:

Ruiz is the biggest bummer here. It was looking like he learned how to hit up here, but now I'm not sure. It's tough without a full 162 to judge these things of course. But man he really fell off a cliff. Starting to hit a little bit again, but it still has me looking to Rylan Bannon and, maybe someday, Coby Mayo. 3B is still pretty barren in the system. 

Rio Ruiz hit well through 14 games.  He is what he is.  He's 26 and he has a career OPS of .664.  In AAA he had a .744.  He's basically the 2020 version of Craig Worthington.

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35 minutes ago, interloper said:

It's Nunez's first arbitration year next season. I think he sticks around for at least next year. He's relatively productive and won't be too expensive. Plus, let's say Davis gets cut or hurt - who's playing 1B if not Nunez? We hope Mancini, but there's no telling what will happen there. Thus, you need some 1B depth. 

Nunez is positively destructive on defense. Unless he’s DH, he’s a negative, and it can be argued that we already have so many DH types, even without Davis, that he will clog the roster too much. I’m assuming that Mancini returns, Santander returns ok, Hays comes back strong, and Stewart continues to produce on offense. Then we have Mullins for defense. That would create a glut of solid offense outfielders.
I’m not saying he should be dumped, I’m just saying that he’s the most likely to go because he contributed the least.

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