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Frobby

Real/not real?

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4 hours ago, Philip said:

Nunez is positively destructive on defense. Unless he’s DH, he’s a negative, and it can be argued that we already have so many DH types, even without Davis, that he will clog the roster too much. I’m assuming that Mancini returns, Santander returns ok, Hays comes back strong, and Stewart continues to produce on offense. Then we have Mullins for defense. That would create a glut of solid offense outfielders.
I’m not saying he should be dumped, I’m just saying that he’s the most likely to go because he contributed the least.

My only point was re: 1B depth which you kind of just ignored here, but alright. 

1B depth chart:

Mancini (huge question mark)
Davis (more likely to ride the bench than start)
Nunez 
Mountcastle (definitely an option but should continue to focus on LF if that's where they see him)

Nunez is really the only starter-capable guy they have right now with enough power to warrant playing 1B over a full season. Sure other guys can spot start there (Ruiz, Valaika, etc), but the team/farm is a bit devoid of proper 1B talent to be giving away a young power bat like Nunez, despite his iffy defense at 1B.

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4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Rio Ruiz hit well through 14 games.  He is what he is.  He's 26 and he has a career OPS of .664.  In AAA he had a .744.  He's basically the 2020 version of Craig Worthington.

Yeah, that's fair. I was hoping he'd maybe done the late-20s click thing. Guys aren't always who they were in the minors, though it's definitely rarer. 

I'd like to see Rylan at the end of this season or at least a much, much stronger look next year in ST. Really compete with Ruiz for the starting 3B gig because we have basically no one else.

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1 hour ago, interloper said:

My only point was re: 1B depth which you kind of just ignored here, but alright. 

1B depth chart:

Mancini (huge question mark)
Davis (more likely to ride the bench than start)
Nunez 
Mountcastle (definitely an option but should continue to focus on LF if that's where they see him)

Nunez is really the only starter-capable guy they have right now with enough power to warrant playing 1B over a full season. Sure other guys can spot start there (Ruiz, Valaika, etc), but the team/farm is a bit devoid of proper 1B talent to be giving away a young power bat like Nunez, despite his iffy defense at 1B.

Nunez is best suited to DH. If Mancini return I’d expect him to play 1B.

When Santander comes back, where does Stewart play? 
I don’t know whether MC or Stewart have worked out at 1B, but we are going to have a surplus of OF bats attached to questionable gloves, so it makes sense to try to use one at 1b...

You mention that Nunez is our only 1B. I’m just saying that with everyone healthy, he’s the most expendable and surplus and defensively it wouldn’t be difficult for someone else to play 1B as well as he does, although we can assume it will be Trey. If it’s not Trey, then we have to figure out what to do with Stewart/MC when Hays and Santander return.

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Tyler Nevin seems like he could be the cromulent MLB-minimum HR/RBI guy after getting that sweet sweet full season of AAA at-bats to try and defend Mountcastle's MVP for the org in 2021.

Just so long as those arb savings buy the 2022 team something shiny.

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First 20 games/second 20/third 20

Severino .942/.849/.276

Ruiz .950/.560/.696

Nunez .980/.699/.747

Alberto .910/.600/.519

Santander .858/.926/—

Sisco 1.182/.671/.472

Team as a whole:

First 20: .797 OPS, 5.35 runs/game

Second 20: .737 OPS, 4.25 runs/game

Third 20: .715OPS, 4.10 runs/game

I guess the emphatic answer to the question in the thread title is: not real, except maybe Santander.   

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52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

First 20 games/second 20/third 20

Severino .942/.849/.276

Ouch - he was the one three weeks out I thought had a shot to grow into a respectable trade chip this offseason.

Joey Bart did have the full 2019 minor league season (though he played just 90 games including Arizona Fall League then), but after having the same 2020 Rutschman handicap of all there is is glorified batting practice, he became the Giants catcher in Team Game #27 this year.   

I'd like to think that's a fair 2021 Rutschman over/under - I feel the benefit of the May/June/July experience has more value to an aspirationally competitive 2022 than the elevated awards will later cost the arb-era Rutschman teams.  Ibid Yusniel, Baumann, and then even Hall/Rodriguez in the second half.

Covid really muddied the water of what do Elias/Sig think 2022 is?   I think all the other years, that answer is obvious, but in Rutschman May 1 or post All-Star break a big clue must start to come after about one more month of regular season play.

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2 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

 

Covid really muddied the water of what do Elias/Sig think 2022 is?   I think all the other years, that answer is obvious, but in Rutschman May 1 or post All-Star break a big clue must start to come after about one more month of regular season play.

There won’t be much time to make a good data driven decision, but my hope is that by June 1 the pitchers in the rotation (Means, Kremer, Akin and hopefully one more prospect) show they are for real. That will allow the FO to bring AR up to learn the staff in advance of a (hopefully) competitive 2022.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

First 20 games/second 20/third 20

Severino .942/.849/.276

Ruiz .950/.560/.696

Nunez .980/.699/.747

Alberto .910/.600/.519

Santander .858/.926/—

Sisco 1.182/.671/.472

Team as a whole:

First 20: .797 OPS, 5.35 runs/game

Second 20: .737 OPS, 4.25 runs/game

Third 20: .715OPS, 4.10 runs/game

I guess the emphatic answer to the question in the thread title is: not real, except maybe Santander.   

Unless you conclude that 60 games is a SSS - 😉 @wildcard

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5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

We don’t know the answer to any of them.

But we do know the answer about all of them taken collectively.  The notion that the Orioles currently have one of the best offenses in the majors is flatly wrong.  That was asserted several times in early-to-mid August.

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3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But we do know the answer about all of them taken collectively.  The notion that the Orioles currently have one of the best offenses in the majors is flatly wrong.  That was asserted several times in early-to-mid August.

No doubt about that 

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10 hours ago, Frobby said:

First 20 games/second 20/third 20

Severino .942/.849/.276

Ruiz .950/.560/.696

Nunez .980/.699/.747

Alberto .910/.600/.519

Santander .858/.926/—

Sisco 1.182/.671/.472

Team as a whole:

First 20: .797 OPS, 5.35 runs/game

Second 20: .737 OPS, 4.25 runs/game

Third 20: .715OPS, 4.10 runs/game

I guess the emphatic answer to the question in the thread title is: not real, except maybe Santander.   

That's interesting. I would have originally guessed that the resurgences of Hays, Mullins, Valaika, and DJ, the continually hot Iglesias and Mountcastle, and the subtraction of Davis and Smith, Jr. would have bolstered the team stats more during the last 20 games.

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13 hours ago, Frobby said:

First 20 games/second 20/third 20

Severino .942/.849/.276

Ruiz .950/.560/.696

Nunez .980/.699/.747

Alberto .910/.600/.519

Santander .858/.926/—

Sisco 1.182/.671/.472

Team as a whole:

First 20: .797 OPS, 5.35 runs/game

Second 20: .737 OPS, 4.25 runs/game

Third 20: .715OPS, 4.10 runs/game

I guess the emphatic answer to the question in the thread title is: not real, except maybe Santander.   

Thank you for not extrapolating the next 60 games…

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