Trevor Bauer is 29, has been in the majors since 2012, and has a 3.90 ERA/3.85 FIP. In two (really 1 1/3) of the last three years he's been very good. But in '19 he had a 4.48 ERA/4.34 FIP.
His excellent 2018 involved a HR rate less than half the rest of his career's, and just 175 innings. In '20 his BABIP was .215, or .085 lower than his career mark.
No way a guy who was pretty good, great, pretty mediocre, then great for a third of a year would be a poor choice for an epic contract. Right? Who wouldn't base a 7/245 deal on a guy's last 73 innings? No chance he'd mirror Jason Schmidt's carer.
If I were to project a 2021 season for Bauer in an O's uniform it would be 170 innings of a 4.15, with 30 homers allowed.
Well, I’m not sure he signs that deal or not.
He is on record saying he wants to sign a one year deal every year.
Whether that still stands remains to be seen.
But yea, I wouldn’t give him that type of deal at his age.