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Frobby

14-16 at the midpoint

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5 hours ago, wildcard said:

You have it backwards.   Severino and Sisco are with the O's until AR is ready.  Its about ARs development.

Nonsense. AR is ready when he is ready. It doesn't matter who catches in the meantime. If Sisco or Severino turn out to be something, then that's great... But it has squat to do with Adley's promotions.

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o

 

(SEPTEMBER 6th)

 

Time flies when you're beating the Yankees.

The Orioles are 19-21 at the 2/3 mark of the 2020 season.

 

o

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I predicted 21 wins at the beginning, it would be hard for them to not reach that mark.  So I'm looking at what we've seen as being successful.  8 or 9 more wins would be significantly better than many of us thought possible.  Yet, the question has to be asked if this success would equate to a full season next year.  I'd have to initially lean toward us doing a little worse statistically just because of the duration of the regular season.  Who knows, tho.  It's been fun to watch.

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On 8/27/2020 at 8:30 AM, Frobby said:

30 games isn’t much, but for this year it’s the midpoint, so let’s take stock.   

14-16 is certainly better than most expected, but it’s not “contention” so far as I’m concerned.    Over a 162 game season, a .467 winning percentage gets a team 75-76 wins.    And I’d be lying if I said I thought this team could maintain that pace over 162 games.

Let’s look at how we got here.   The offense has performed extremely well.   4.8 runs per game is 6th in the AL; .764 OPS is 5th.    Do I think it’s sustainable?   Frankly, no.   The offense has been carried by 5-6 hot starts, and already some of those guys (Ruiz, Alberto) are starting to come back to earth.    I do think there are other guys who will have their turn to get hot, but on balance,  the team has overperformed on offense.    

As to the pitching, our 4.77 ERA ranks 10th.    That’s a huge improvement over last year, and frankly, I expected some improvement over last year’s historically bad performance.    But I feel we’ve been aided a lot by having expanded rosters, adding more arms to the bullpen.   Our starters are averaging 4.3 innings per start, and in a normal season that would destroy a bullpen.   In fairness, this is going on all over the league, which is averaging only 4.6 IP per start.    But it works to the O’s advantage due to the mediocrity of our starting staff (5.37 ERA, 0.62 over league average).    The bullpen has been credible, posting a 4.20 ERA (0.15 over league average) and converting 2/3 of its save opportunities (right on league average).     I think the O’s will continue to show improvement over last year’s pitching, though they may slip a little.    

One area I think can improve is the defense.    Iglesias’ injuries have cost a lot of stability in the infield, so if he can return and stay healthy that will help a lot.    Ditto with Hays in the OF, which would allow the O’s to use Mullins more flexibly.   Dwight Smith is gone and that’s an improvement right there.    

Overall, I think this team has overperformed, and is likely to slip further back over the next 30 days even if no trades are made (and I do expect some trades that will weaken our current roster, most likely in the bullpen).    But, I do see some improvements over last year that are encouraging for the longer term.  I’ll wait until the “full” 60 games are played to make a better educated guess on that, however.   

If I had to guess our final record, I’d say 25-26 wins.  

Well, my preseason win prediction was too low, but my midseason prediction of the final record was on target. 

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