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Roll Tide

The deadline is looming...Is Elias done?

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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

They are one game behind the Yankees and have a pretty good lineup through 6 or 7 spots in the order. 

 

He’s not being brought in to replace Biggio. More likely SS or 3B. Panik and Shaw are hitting under .220 and Espinal-250. All three have OBPs under .300.  

If Villar plays three Games at SS, he won’t play anymore after that. Same at 3B. I think Vlad Jr is their 3B, and his defense isn’t good. Maybe they’ll move him to DH and let Villar handle third?


woo boy, them Toronto folks is in fer sum serius hurtin’ 

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3 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

Castro (trade for cash or PTBNL (Jon Keller) >>> 2020 trade - 2 players (1 PTBNL)

Bleier (trade for cash or PTBNL) – >>>>>  2020 trade - (PTBNL)

Velazquez (waivers)- >>>>>> 2020 trade - (PTBNL)

Milone (minor league deal) – >>>>>> 2020 trade (2 PTBNL)

Givens (drafted 2nd round 2009) – >>>>>>> 2020 trade - 3 players (1 PTBNL)

I was just thinking about this and thought this was a good place to add.  So good timing.  Sorry for weird formatting, fighting with computer.  First (xx) is how we acquired each guy.

 

 

 

With the exception of the Givens deal all the rest of these deals could end up be just MeH. It will take hearing who the PTBNL are. 
 

So if the Castro trade ends up being for Smith and cash, I’m not even sure it’s a win for Elias. 
 

He traded a established RP with a 100 MPH fastball for a potential 5th starter/long man type  with meh graded stuff

 

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4 minutes ago, Philip said:

If Villar plays three Games at SS, he won’t play anymore after that. Same at 3B. I think Vlad Jr is their 3B, and his defense isn’t good. Maybe they’ll move him to DH and let Villar handle third?


woo boy, them Toronto folks is in fer sum serius hurtin’ 

IMO Vlad junior is a DH and I don’t expect him to age well. Who knows ... can Biggio play SS or 3B?

 

 

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2 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

Elias got embarrassed today. Elias traded Villar to Miami for low A-ball reliever, Easton Lucas, drafted in the 14th round in 2019. He is a "non-ranked prospect."

And Miami turns Villar into rightfielder Griffin Conine, who hit 22 HRs in 80 games at A ball last year. Conine, Jeff's son, was the Jays' #16 prospect according to mlb.com and the 52nd player taken in the 2018 draft, fwiw.

How come Mike Hill can a quality prospect for Villar when the best Elias could do was get zilch?

What would Elias have had to have added in a hypothetical trade to acquire Conine in a trade for Easton? Yusniel Diaz? Grayson Rodriguez?

Meanwhile, I realize that the expanded playoff format has a bearing on how many buyers there are. Obviously, teams are not a bit worried about winning a World Series in a year with a short season. (There will not be an "asterisk," btw.)

As it turned out, the salary relief was virtually non-existent. Had the Orioles traded Villar today, they would have spent @ $1.6MM on Villar this year. That's not a lot. The Jays would not have traded Conine for Easton and $1.6MM. Especially considering Conine signed for @ $1.5MM bonus...

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2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

 

 

He traded a established RP with a 100 MPH fastball for a potential 5th starter/long man type  with meh graded stuff

 

We have a good system that’s getting better, and Smith just became our #12 prospect. 
I found Castro to be very frustrating. He had great stuff, but too often surprised with a suddenly terrible outing.. remember, throwing hard and fast means nothing if you cannot reliably control where it’s coming.

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1 minute ago, Philip said:

We have a good system that’s getting better, and Smith just became our #12 prospect. 
I found Castro to be very frustrating. He had great stuff, but too often surprised with a suddenly terrible outing.. remember, throwing hard and fast means nothing if you cannot reliably control where it’s coming.

My point is i will feel a lot better if the return is Smith plus Butto versus Smith and $50,000 in cash back 

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2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Who .... Elias? Yep Elias got fleeced when he got nothing for Villar. He hit well in the division last year. Probably immediately does better in the AL East.

If Conine is as good as you say the Jays got fleeced. I would rather get fleeced on Villar than to lose a bona fide prospect.

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42 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

OK, but Hill got a really good prospect in Conine. That's my point. That Hill could get a prospect as highly valued as RF Conine, who mashed in his soph and junior years at Duke and has continued in the minors is truly impressive for a couple weeks of Villar. That Elias got bupkiss for an entire year of a signed Villar doesn't reflect well by comparison.

 

How can you compare this season to the season prior? It's a totally different market. Also, I don't think Conine is nearly as good of a prospect as you are describing. He didn't even make Keith Law's top 20 and he's pretty firmly a 40FV guy. I'm sure Elias got rid of Villar knowing he was going to go after Iglesias and it seems like he could not have been more right about how they would play this year. We can see what they are eventually able to get for Iglesias and then revisit this.

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28 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If Conine is as good as you say the Jays got fleeced. I would rather get fleeced on Villar than to lose a bona fide prospect.

I was going to say... the respective returns feel more like the Jays getting fleeced rather than us.  We may have gotten less than Villar's actual value, but by the same token the Jays paid WAY too much.  

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28 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If Conine is as good as you say the Jays got fleeced. I would rather get fleeced on Villar than to lose a bona fide prospect.

I was going to say... the respective returns feel more like the Jays getting fleeced rather than us.  We may have gotten less than Villar's actual value, but by the same token the Jays paid WAY too much.  

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28 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If Conine is as good as you say the Jays got fleeced. I would rather get fleeced on Villar than to lose a bona fide prospect.

I was going to say... the respective returns feel more like the Jays getting fleeced rather than us.  We may have gotten less than Villar's actual value, but by the same token the Jays paid WAY too much.  

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Our system is likely a little underrated too because Elias has targeted a lot of NCAA SP with the hopes that our analytic dept can make them more than what they are currently viewed as. Last years draft. The Villar and Bundy trades. Who knows what the PTBNL will turn out to be. They could be cash, or they could be more of these NCAA SP types that he likes that weren’t eligible to be traded.  

Edited by sportsfan8703

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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

With the exception of the Givens deal all the rest of these deals could end up be just MeH. It will take hearing who the PTBNL are. 
 

So if the Castro trade ends up being for Smith and cash, I’m not even sure it’s a win for Elias. 
 

He traded a established RP with a 100 MPH fastball for a potential 5th starter/long man type  with meh graded stuff

 

Givens was the most valuable piece so that makes sense.

Velasquez was gone so fast I barely know if I can argue either way.

Bleier and Castro were useful, but one was old and the other didn't have a history of success like Givens.  Milone did well, but doesn't seem like a long term piece.

It's hard to truly gauge with 6 players to be named, but I don't there will be any earth scattering players. 

Castro likely had one more year at best here.  IDK what Smith will be but he is intriguing at the very least.  Either way, I'll be curious who these 6 PTBNL are.

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40 minutes ago, LTO's said:

How can you compare this season to the season prior? It's a totally different market. Also, I don't think Conine is nearly as good of a prospect as you are describing. He didn't even make Keith Law's top 20 and he's pretty firmly a 40FV guy. I'm sure Elias got rid of Villar knowing he was going to go after Iglesias and it seems like he could not have been more right about how they would play this year. We can see what they are eventually able to get for Iglesias and then revisit this.

If this year were THAT different of a seller's market, than Elias should have received top 5 org prospects instead of teens. Because the gulf between Conine (#16) and Easton (#174) is far greater than between #5 prospect vs. #12.

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1 minute ago, Beef Supreme said:

If this year were THAT different of a seller's market, than Elias should have received top 5 org prospects instead of teens. Because the gulf between Conine (#16) and Easton (#174) is far greater than between #5 prospect vs. #12.

I acknowledge I was using hyperbole when I wrote that Easton is rated the Orioles' #174 prospect.

Actually, Easton is ranked #117 in the organization. Whoopsie!

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