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Cole Sulser: not closer material

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I can see Hyde's logic. Sulser was very effective early on, but hit a bad stretch lately and it got to his head... thus command. A "breather" in lower pressure situations might work to reset his confidence.

Meanwhile, I'm really liking what I'm seeing from Tate (maybe not as closer, yet, but still).

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15 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Not every quality reliever has the intestinal fortitude to be a closer.

It take a special mindsight that some dont have.

Other Posters have disagreed with me, but I think its easy to see the failures over the years of those that tried.

Yes, sometimes, #2 man, can step up and assume the job and perform it well.

Yet, sometimes, they arent able to.

 

That statement would be just as, or more, valid if you didn't have the first two sentences.

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2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That statement would be just as, or more, valid if you didn't have the first two sentences.

True, but I have seen solid #2 guys want closer money and everybody assumes they are so good locking down the game for the closer, they can be the closer.

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2 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

True, but I have seen solid #2 guys want closer money and everybody assumes they are so good locking down the game for the closer, they can be the closer.

I, for the life of me, can't think of a set-up guy that was making ~closer money that couldn't handle stepping in to close.

Which guys are you talking about?

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15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I, for the life of me, can't think of a set-up guy that was making ~closer money that couldn't handle stepping in to close.

Which guys are you talking about?

Tommy Hunter, you ought to remember him. Need to do some  brain thought for some others.

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6 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Tommy Hunter, you ought to remember him. Need to do some  brain thought for some others.

What, when he was with the Phillies?  He had four saves  and 11 games finished over those two seasons.  He sure wasn't making closer type money with the O's.

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20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What, when he was with the Phillies?  He had four saves  and 11 games finished over those two seasons.  He sure wasn't making closer type money with the O's.

#2 guys, want the closer role, so they can get closer money.

My memory must be failing, but I thought back around 2014, Buck experimented with Hunter as a closer and he failed a few times, and Buck pulled the plug on it.

Before that time, Hunter has been a solid setup guy.

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2 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

#2 guys, want the closer role, so they can get closer money.

My memory must be failing, but I thought back around 2014, Buck experimented with Hunter as a closer and he failed a few times, and Buck pulled the plug on it.

Before that time, Hunter has been a solid setup guy.

Buck might have, but Hunter wasn't making anything close to closer money with the O's.

Shame about Buck and his allegiance to the save rule.

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4 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

#2 guys, want the closer role, so they can get closer money.

My memory must be failing, but I thought back around 2014, Buck experimented with Hunter as a closer and he failed a few times, and Buck pulled the plug on it.

Before that time, Hunter has been a solid setup guy.

Hunter did replace Johnson in 14 before Britton took over. 

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28 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Hunter did replace Johnson in 14 before Britton took over. 

Hunter started out well, and then he couldnt pitch well unless he was in the stretch, which doesnt work well.

Hunter blew a few games, and he lost his closer spot.

He spent a long time knocking around the league after 2014, dont think he got many saves.

 

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Not sure why this team needs to declare a closer. Play the matchups, use science. Why would you bring in your RH "closer" to face 3 LH hitters, one of which he has bad numbers against when you could use your LH guy that has great numbers against all three of the due up batters? It's not like any of our guys are going to be the next Rivera.

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Some interesting stats come up when I try to find the most notorious Orioles ever for blowing saves. It's a manual calculation since I can only find Saves and Save Opportunities. At the high end of saves leaders it's common to see a half dozen blown saves, so I looked further down for worse percentages and perhaps the duds that lost their closer roles (5+ BS). Here goes, with some surprise entries for "Gasoline Alley" including a few on pennant winners and contenders. The much maligned Givens has some good company there:

1974 Grant Jackson 12 / 19
1970 Eddie Watt 12 / 19
2019 Michael Givens 11 / 19
2014 Tommy Hunter 11 / 17
2009 Jim Johnson 11 / 16
2011 Jim Johnson 9 / 14
1989 Mark Williamson 9 / 15
2007 Jamie Walker 7 / 13
2015 Darren O'Day 6 / 11
2000 Buddy Groom 4 / 11
1985 Tippy Martinez 4 / 12
2000 Mike Trombley 4 / 11
1977 Dick Drago 3 / 9
1996 Alan Mills 3 / 8
1990 Curt Schilling 3 / 9
2012 Pedro Strop 3 / 10
1987 Mark Williamson 3 / 10
2016 Brad Brach 2 / 7
2007 Chad Bradford 2 / 7
2010 Jim Johnson 1 / 6
2017 Michael Givens 0 / 6
2004 Jason Grimsley 0 / 6

Strangely missing from this list are the would-be "bad closers" I would expect to see: the likes of Terry Mathews, Mike DeJean, Kevin Gregg... wait, there's one: Mike Trombley. I guess they lost games in earlier innings and never deserved many true save opportunities. I wonder what stat "leader" board would list such culprits that stick out most in our jaded memories...

PS Last year's Givens earns his rep here by leading the pack with 8 BS, tied with 1985 Tippy. Sulser's line so far: a rather modest 5 / 8. Recency bias, anyone?

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Save percentage is biased heavily against set-up men. They can only blow the "save," when they are unlikely to ever close that game and get the save. 

Probably hard to do, but final inning blown saves would be more informing.

Edited by gtown
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1 hour ago, now said:

Some interesting stats come up when I try to find the most notorious Orioles ever for blowing saves. It's a manual calculation since I can only find Saves and Save Opportunities. At the high end of saves leaders it's common to see a half dozen blown saves, so I looked further down for worse percentages and perhaps the duds that lost their closer roles (5+ BS). Here goes, with some surprise entries for "Gasoline Alley" including a few on pennant winners and contenders. The much maligned Givens has some good company there:

1974 Grant Jackson 12 / 19
1970 Eddie Watt 12 / 19
2019 Michael Givens 11 / 19
2014 Tommy Hunter 11 / 17
2009 Jim Johnson 11 / 16
2011 Jim Johnson 9 / 14
1989 Mark Williamson 9 / 15
2007 Jamie Walker 7 / 13
2015 Darren O'Day 6 / 11
2000 Buddy Groom 4 / 11
1985 Tippy Martinez 4 / 12
2000 Mike Trombley 4 / 11
1977 Dick Drago 3 / 9
1996 Alan Mills 3 / 8
1990 Curt Schilling 3 / 9
2012 Pedro Strop 3 / 10
1987 Mark Williamson 3 / 10
2016 Brad Brach 2 / 7
2007 Chad Bradford 2 / 7
2010 Jim Johnson 1 / 6
2017 Michael Givens 0 / 6
2004 Jason Grimsley 0 / 6

Strangely missing from this list are the would-be "bad closers" I would expect to see: the likes of Terry Mathews, Mike DeJean, Kevin Gregg... wait, there's one: Mike Trombley. I guess they lost games in earlier innings and never deserved many true save opportunities. I wonder what stat "leader" board would list such culprits that stick out most in our jaded memories...

PS Last year's Givens earns his rep here by leading the pack with 8 BS, tied with 1985 Tippy. Sulser's line so far: a rather modest 5 / 8. Recency bias, anyone?

You can’t conpare the save percentages of closers and non-closers.    Say O’Day comes in for the 8th inning with a one-run lead.   If he doesn’t allow a run, but leaves the game after that inning, he gets no save.    If he allows a run, it’s a blown save.  

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