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Frobby

Easton Lucas vs. Griffin Conine

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Easton Lucas is the player the O’s acquired when they traded Jonathan Villar last winter:  https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=lucas-000eas

Griffin Conine is the player the Marlins acquired when they traded Villar today:   https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=conine000gri

In the interim: Villar played in 29 games with the Marlins, posting a .688 OPS and worth 0.0 rWAR.   He got paid about $1.47 mm while under the Marlins’ control, having agreed to an $8.2 mm salary that was truncated due to the short season.

Overall, I think the Marlins bested the O’s here.   Conine was a second rounder, Lucas a 14th rounder.   Conine is a year younger but was drafted one year ahead of Lucas.    Conine at age 21 mashed pretty well in low A, whereas Lucas at age 22 was just so-so in short season A.   MLB.com had Conine at no. 16 in the Jays system this year.   Lucas is not on anyone’s radar, at least not yet.

And of course, many Marlins fans will enjoy having the son of “Mr. Marlin” in their organization.

Overall, I don’t think our Villar trade looks so good right now, especially since we were trading him after a much better season than he’s having right now, and with more service time remaining.    Seems like we were afraid of what his arbitration price tag might be, but in the end he settled at a pretty reasonable number and the Marlins were able to get more than they gave      

 

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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Easton Lucas is the player the O’s acquired when they traded Jonathan Villar last winter:  https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=lucas-000eas

Griffin Conine is the player the Marlins acquired when they traded Villar today:   https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=conine000gri

In the interim: Villar played in 29 games with the Marlins, posting a .688 OPS and worth 0.0 rWAR.   He got paid about $1.47 mm while under the Marlins’ control, having agreed to an $8.2 mm salary that was truncated due to the short season.

Overall, I think the Marlins bested the O’s here.   Conine was a second rounder, Lucas a 14th rounder.   Conine is a year younger but was drafted one year ahead of Lucas.    Conine at age 21 mashed pretty well in low A, whereas Lucas at age 22 was just so-so in short season A.   MLB.com had Conine at no. 16 in the Jays system this year.   Lucas is not on anyone’s radar, at least not yet.

And of course, many Marlins fans will enjoy having the son of “Mr. Marlin” in their organization.

Overall, I don’t think our Villar trade looks so good right now, especially since we were trading him after a much better season than he’s having right now, and with more service time remaining.    Seems like we were afraid of what his arbitration price tag might be, but in the end he settled at a pretty reasonable number and the Marlins were able to get more than they gave      

 

I was and still am disappointed. He had a rough start but was starting to hit better in the last 15 games.

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63% approved of the Villar for Easton trade at the time.   Roll Tide was not among them, though he said he would reconsider his position if Villar came in at or under Steamer’s projected 1.8 fWAR.

 

 

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I think I approved of the trade because I thought of it more as avoiding the arbitration cost, and Villar is a very frustrating player to watch. Tim Beckham Is the only other player I can think of who was as annoying to watch, because when he was bad, he was bad suddenly, and tremendously. I am curious as to why he was in demand?

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These kind of comps always assume there were other offers on the table. I assume Elias kicked the tires and got the best player available. 

One difference is the Marlins have more leverage being a .500 team and a 29% chance to make the playoffs. Unlike the 2019 Orioles, they can plausibly say that they will walk away from a deal that doesn't get them a prospect back. 

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Huh? The Jays have to pay, what, a few mil for Villar this season as opposed to $8.2? 

That makes a huge difference in the return IMO. 

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1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

These kind of comps always assume there were other offers on the table. I assume Elias kicked the tires and got the best player available. 

One difference is the Marlins have more leverage being a .500 team and a 29% chance to make the playoffs. Unlike the 2019 Orioles, they can plausibly say that they will walk away from a deal that doesn't get them a prospect back. 

Not sure I agree with this logic. Plus we had Villar at last year’s deadline on fire and couldn’t get a player equal to or better than Conine? 
 

I still don’t buy it 

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1 minute ago, interloper said:

Huh? The Jays have to pay, what, a few mil for Villar this season as opposed to $8.2? 

That makes a huge difference in the return IMO. 

Yeah but they only have him for 20 something games to it’s all relative

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3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Yeah but they only have him for 20 something games to it’s all relative

Fair. Overall it seems iffy to compare 2020 to basically anything, trade returns included. 

Also a factor is that it was really a salary dump before it was a trade. That's going to lessen the return. And I get that folks have an issue with the straight salary dump. It's not a particularly sexy trade. 

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I honestly do not want to sound like sour grapes here but it seems like it's fair to say the Marlins got extremely lucky with the circumstances of this season that they were able to move Villar. Villar, as i predicted, came crashing down to earth this year so in terms of Iglesias vs Villar, it seems like Elias nailed his evaluation there. If the Os are able to get something for Iglesias either in the winter or at the deadline next year in addition to Lucas then we can re-evaluate.

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Conine's numbers were good, but Low-A all year is I think the easy setting for a college bat picked high, and of course no telling how irked the Blue Jays were he had a PED suspension take away the first half of his 2019.

Lucas and all the Angels pitchers are really a mystery box where what's inside over the next few years are our test cases if the flavor of pitcher we've targeted in trades is a good one.

I heard one observation on MLB network this afternoon that Isan Diaz going Markakis and opting back in nudged this one a bit, and there it's interesting to me the Marlins, buying otherwise, were so quick to move on from him.

I think baserunning makes him likely for Buffalo's postseason roster, but not sure how many PA he'll get once Bichette returns.

Should Iglesias's performance factor in here?

 

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6 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Conine's numbers were good, but Low-A all year is I think the easy setting for a college bat picked high, and of course no telling how irked the Blue Jays were he had a PED suspension take away the first half of his 2019.

Lucas and all the Angels pitchers are really a mystery box where what's inside over the next few years are our test cases if the flavor of pitcher we've targeted in trades is a good one.

I heard one observation on MLB network this afternoon that Isan Diaz going Markakis and opting back in nudged this one a bit, and there it's interesting to me the Marlins, buying otherwise, were so quick to move on from him.

I think baserunning makes him likely for Buffalo's postseason roster, but not sure how many PA he'll get once Bichette returns.

Should Iglesias's performance factor in here?

 

Great points and I do think that Iglesias does pump up the volume for Elias.  He was handicapped when he dealt Villar but was prescient in selecting Iglesias.  The hits today, the tag and the "Jeteresque" play to end the game were tremendous.

Edited by bobmc
Iglesias

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Easton Lucas is the player the O’s acquired when they traded Jonathan Villar last winter:  https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=lucas-000eas

Griffin Conine is the player the Marlins acquired when they traded Villar today:   https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=conine000gri

In the interim: Villar played in 29 games with the Marlins, posting a .688 OPS and worth 0.0 rWAR.   He got paid about $1.47 mm while under the Marlins’ control, having agreed to an $8.2 mm salary that was truncated due to the short season.

Overall, I think the Marlins bested the O’s here.   Conine was a second rounder, Lucas a 14th rounder.   Conine is a year younger but was drafted one year ahead of Lucas.    Conine at age 21 mashed pretty well in low A, whereas Lucas at age 22 was just so-so in short season A.   MLB.com had Conine at no. 16 in the Jays system this year.   Lucas is not on anyone’s radar, at least not yet.

And of course, many Marlins fans will enjoy having the son of “Mr. Marlin” in their organization.

Overall, I don’t think our Villar trade looks so good right now, especially since we were trading him after a much better season than he’s having right now, and with more service time remaining.    Seems like we were afraid of what his arbitration price tag might be, but in the end he settled at a pretty reasonable number and the Marlins were able to get more than they gave      

 

Easton Lucas and 2.2 million vs. Griffin Conine

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19 minutes ago, weams said:

Easton Lucas and 2.2 million vs. Griffin Conine

And of course at the time of the Villar deal he had no idea that there wouldn't be a full season so keeping Villar even until July 31 was expected to cost at least $4 or $5 million

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