The Orioles, optimistically, were a 60-something win team in 2020. They need to add roughly 25 wins to be even a wildcard contender.
Bauer/LeMahieu/Colome get you maybe 12 wins, if you're being charitable. And you are running with the slightly crazy idea that a smaller-market 60-something win team is going to be able to lure three top free agents in one offseason.
So you still need 10-20 wins of improvement out of the existing roster. I suppose that could happen, but do you really think Severino, Mountcastle, Mullins, Stewart, Iglesias, Santander etc are likely to be a lot better over 162 games? Or that Mancini comes back from cancer and is immediately really good? Or that Cobb's arm stays attached?
I think the realistic '21 ceiling is around .500, more likely case around 70 wins. They're not signing any top free agents, and it would be really positive if they got a lot more growth than backsliding.