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wildcard

Valaika makes a bid to become an everyday player

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Simply employing the eye test and eschewing any defensive statistical metrics, as the utility infielder, I find his defense lacking.  For me, the question becomes whether I want a superior defensive player as my utility guy or a guy who can hit and play a lot of positions adequately. If the dude could do both, he'd be a starter. Valaika seems to fit the latter description which is fine, and let's face it, this is his time to prove the naysayers wrong. If he continues to hit, a team will find a place on the roster for him. Personally, I'd rather have a superior defender who can hit .220. I''m talking to you Ryan Flaherty.

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I will always remember Flaherty at third in ‘14 when Manny was injured. Folks, Flahrt was damn good at 3B, and I remember his defense more than anything he did with the bat. 
Thats a guy you want on your team.
It is also worth noting that he had The last HR and the Last RBI of 2014.

Hes done playing but he has 4-5 million in the bank and a pile of Orioles Memories. God bless him and thanks.

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15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

First paragraph is just rhetoric.   You could say it of any player.   Second paragraph is not a bad argument.  Still, I think you’re cherry-picking.    You’ve got guys in that league OPSing 300 points above Valaika.   Hitting .950 OPS at age 26 is above average for that league but it’s certainly not outstanding.   

I hope his performance continues to justify your optimism.   
 

 

As I posted.  There were three guys. in the the PCL that were 26 or younger that had equal to or better hitting stats. Three.  That is it if we are talking equal number of at bats.

300 OPs point above 950 is a 1250 OPS.  Show me those guys.  Not at the same number of at bats and his age or younger.

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9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

As I posted.  There were three guys. in the the PCL that were 26 or younger that had equal to or better hitting stats. Three.  That is it if we are talking equal number of at bats.

300 OPs point above 950 is a 1250 OPS.  Show me those guys.  Not at the same number of at bats and his age or younger.

“Same number of at bats” is pretty arbitrary.   Ty France, age 24, had a 1.247 OPS in 348 PA, compared to Valaika’s 383 PA.   You really going to hold 35 PA against him and say they aren’t comparable?   Kevin Cron, 26, had a 1.226 OPS in 374 PA.   You holding those 9 fewer PA against him?    A lot of the younger guys who had better OPS but fewer at bats than Valaika did, did  so because they spent more time in the majors than Valaika did.   Should we hold that against them?

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38 minutes ago, wildcard said:

As I posted.  There were three guys. in the the PCL that were 26 or younger that had equal to or better hitting stats. Three.  That is it if we are talking equal number of at bats.

300 OPs point above 950 is a 1250 OPS.  Show me those guys.  Not at the same number of at bats and his age or younger.

Did you think he was an everyday MLer on August 18?

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11 hours ago, wildcard said:

As I posted.  There were three guys. in the the PCL that were 26 or younger that had equal to or better hitting stats. Three.  That is it if we are talking equal number of at bats.

300 OPs point above 950 is a 1250 OPS.  Show me those guys.  Not at the same number of at bats and his age or younger.

You do understand that if you're 23 years old and you're OPSing 1.257 you're going to get called up, right?  Even if you're playing Albuquerque arena baseball.

There were 32 PCL players 26 or younger who OPS'd at least .952.  Here's a list of players who had a .952+ OPS, were 26 or younger, and had 383 or more PAs:

Jared Walsh
Taylor Ward
Seth Brown
Roberto Ramos
Isan Diaz
Younathan Daza
Pat Valaika

Of course even that is tilted unnaturally in favor of Valaika because Albuquerque is one of the best places to hit in the league.  The PCL as a whole had an otherworldly 5.85 runs a game, but Albuquerque was at 6.4.  That's higher than the run context of almost any MLB team since 1900.  At the height of the steroid era the majors scored 5.1 runs/game.  The Rockies have never had a year where they scored/allowed 6.4 runs per game.  The 1930 Phils, a 52-102 team playing in a tiny park with a comically bad pitching staff in the biggest offensive year of the 20th century may be the only team in the last 120 years to see 6.4 runs/game.

So just to scale Albuquerque to PCL standards you'd have to knock 30, 40, 50 points off Valaika's numbers. Then you get a list of 15 or 20 comparables using your criteria, ignoring half the league.

I've spent enough calories on this.  If you still wish to believe that a 26-year-old utility player is going to be a MLB starter because he hit 200 points above his normal AAA level in a very extreme environment, go for it.

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19 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You do understand that if you're 23 years old and you're OPSing 1.257 you're going to get called up, right?  Even if you're playing Albuquerque arena baseball.

There were 32 PCL players 26 or younger who OPS'd at least .952.  Here's a list of players who had a .952+ OPS, were 26 or younger, and had 383 or more PAs:

Jared Walsh
Taylor Ward
Seth Brown
Roberto Ramos
Isan Diaz
Younathan Daza
Pat Valaika

Of course even that is tilted unnaturally in favor of Valaika because Albuquerque is one of the best places to hit in the league.  The PCL as a whole had an otherworldly 5.85 runs a game, but Albuquerque was at 6.4.  That's higher than the run context of almost any MLB team since 1900.  At the height of the steroid era the majors scored 5.1 runs/game.  The Rockies have never had a year where they scored/allowed 6.4 runs per game.  The 1930 Phils, a 52-102 team playing in a tiny park with a comically bad pitching staff in the biggest offensive year of the 20th century may be the only team in the last 120 years to see 6.4 runs/game.

So just to scale Albuquerque to PCL standards you'd have to knock 30, 40, 50 points off Valaika's numbers. Then you get a list of 15 or 20 comparables using your criteria, ignoring half the league.

I've spent enough calories on this.  If you still wish to believe that a 26-year-old utility player is going to be a MLB starter because he hit 200 points above his normal AAA level in a very extreme environment, go for it.

I think his history of work with the bat in the minors speaks to what we can expect. If Pat can keep this up that would be a real win for us. It would be nice for us to have a few of those stories than it always being a guy figures it out after he leaves here.

I just think @wildcard is drinking the Koolaid and that’s fine. There are plenty that do and it makes them overly optimistic. So I really don’t see the harm! But it’s nice to see @Sports Guy, @DrungoHazewood, and to a lesser extent @Frobby pick on someone else....with an honorable mention to @Can_of_corn. Whom I can’t remember if he’s involved in this debate or not 😉

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17 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think his history of work with the bat in the minors speaks to what we can expect. If Pat can keep this up that would be a real win for us. It would be nice for us to have a few of those stories than it always being a guy figures it out after he leaves here.

I just think @wildcard is drinking the Koolaid and that’s fine. There are plenty that do and it makes them overly optimistic. So I really don’t see the harm! But it’s nice to see @Sports Guy, @DrungoHazewood, and to a lesser extent @Frobby pick on someone else....with an honorable mention to @Can_of_corn. Whom I can’t remember if he’s involved in this debate or not 😉

I think Valaika could be a nice Flaherty type player for a few years.  With short benches it's nice to have someone who can at least fake playing 4-5 positions and not be a zero with the bat.

There's no harm in being optimistic.  But I take issue with over-the-top, magical, nonsensical optimism.  Going three-for-eight doesn't warrant a thread on someone's Cooperstown credentials.

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14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Now you got me picturing Drungo and Frobby taking some kid's lunch money.  (They are also be kids in this scenario)

I wait until they've gone through the line and gotten their pizza, then just demand that.  I'm not wasting my time queuing up with the rabble and talking to the lunch lady.

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Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

I think Valaika could be a nice Flaherty type player for a few years.  With short benches it's nice to have someone who can at least fake playing 4-5 positions and not be a zero with the bat.

There's no harm in being optimistic.  But I take issue with over-the-top, magical, nonsensical optimism.  Going three-for-eight doesn't warrant a thread on someone's Cooperstown credentials.

I agree and seem to remember him hitting .230 not so long ago.

In Wildcard’s defense he is hitting 17 for 49 in his last 15 games l. Which is fueled by 9 for his last 21. So I think 3 for 8 is a bit of an understatement.

I personally hope he is a better hitter than Flaherty who was an occasional homerun and pretty much nothing else with the bat.

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10 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I agree and seem to remember him hitting .230 not so long ago.

In Wildcard’s defense he is hitting 17 for 49 in his last 15 games l. Which is fueled by 9 for his last 21. So I think 3 for 8 is a bit of an understatement.

I personally hope he is a better hitter than Flaherty who was an occasional homerun and pretty much nothing else with the bat.

It was an understatement.  But BABIP and batting average takes many hundreds of at bats to stabilize.  Pretty much any non-pitcher on a MLB roster could go 17-for-49.  Todd Cruz had a .589 OPS for his career, the O's had him play third down the stretch in '83 and he was frankly terrible.  He started that season going 20-for-59.  Everyone remembers David Newhan, a career .692 OPS guy, hitting .400 for about six weeks.

Valaika's career OPS stands at .686 today.  That's probably a reasonable projection of what he'll do going forward.

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2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It was an understatement.  But BABIP and batting average takes many hundreds of at bats to stabilize.  Pretty much any non-pitcher on a MLB roster could go 17-for-49.  Todd Cruz had a .589 OPS for his career, the O's had him play third down the stretch in '83 and he was frankly terrible.  He started that season going 20-for-59.  Everyone remembers David Newhan, a career .692 OPS guy, hitting .400 for about six weeks.

Valaika's career OPS stands at .686 today.  That's probably a reasonable projection of what he'll do going forward.

Remember folks freaking out because Ryan Flaherty was hitting 360 for the Braves in 2018?

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Here's a partial list of Orioles who have OPS'd 1.000 or better in a month of 40+ plate appearances since 2000:

David Newhan
Brian Roberts
Jimmy Paredes
Larry Bigbie
Wellington Castillo
Tim Beckham
Jay Gibbons
Felix Pie
Mike Bordick
Craig Gentry
Chance Sisco
Nick Johnson
Ty Wigginton
Chris Parmelee
Chris Singleton
Wilson Betemit
Chris Richard
Nolan Reimold
Jerry Hairston
Kevin Millar

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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Remember folks freaking out because Ryan Flaherty was hitting 360 for the Braves in 2018?

WHY DO THE ORIOLES RELEASE PLAYERS AND THEN THEY BECOME SUPERSTARS SOMEWHERE ELSE!~?!>!?!?

From May 1st 2018 through the end of the year Flaherty hit .136.

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