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wildcard

Valaika makes a bid to become an everyday player

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3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Not really in my opinion....It’s would be like giving Seattle credit for developing Griffey or the Nationals for Harper.

But go ahead and count him if you want the Orioles have been so putrid that it doesn’t matter 
 

Just in the first round...arguably the easiest pick to hit on.

From Mussina in 1990 Until Markakis in 2003 every first rounder selected was aLmost a complete loss.

From 2004-2009 the only Player they hit on was Wieters. And many think he was a disappointment versus projections.

And 11-15 Bundy, Harvey and Gausman fell way short of TOR projections. DJ Stewart looks like a bust. And it’s too early to tell on Mountcastle and Sedlock.So in 25 years worth of first rounders the only wins thy had were Markakis, Mussina, and Machado.

I blame development ....but I guess bad luck probably played a role.

You probably could’ve picked better by pulling ping pong balls out of a fish bowl than our gaggle of incompetent GMs.

All of that doesn't mean much if it's not in context.  Many times I've pointed out that Bundy and Gausman are actually above-average #4 overall picks.  There have been about 50 drafts with enough information to judge, and Gausman and Bundy are something like the 15th and 16th-best of the lot.

So either the O's didn't fail, or you have to conclude that 80% or 90% of all high draft picks are failures.  You can take your pick.

You want a real kicker... Brian Matusz had just about an average career for a #4 pick.

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43 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

All of that doesn't mean much if it's not in context.  Many times I've pointed out that Bundy and Gausman are actually above-average #4 overall picks.  There have been about 50 drafts with enough information to judge, and Gausman and Bundy are something like the 15th and 16th-best of the lot.

So either the O's didn't fail, or you have to conclude that 80% or 90% of all high draft picks are failures.  You can take your pick.

You want a real kicker... Brian Matusz had just about an average career for a #4 pick.

All this is true, and yet it’s undeniable that the O’s have gotten below average yield out of the draft over the last 20ish years, despite picking high most of the time.   But we don’t know yet what the results of Elias’ player development regime will be, and to some extent, the results of even the Duquette regime’s drafting and development are still unfolding.   

Here’s a thread I did on the best Orioles draft picks of the 21st century, which also compares our draft yield with the other teams in the AL East.   Through 2016, we’d gotten the least WAR from the draft of the 5 teams, though we’d done pretty well from 2010 forward.   I’ve updated the “best Oriole picks” part of the thread every year, but one of these days I need to update the comparison with the other four teams.  

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/26963-ranking-the-best-orioles-draft-picks-of-the-21st-century/#comments

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16 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

All of that doesn't mean much if it's not in context.  Many times I've pointed out that Bundy and Gausman are actually above-average #4 overall picks.  There have been about 50 drafts with enough information to judge, and Gausman and Bundy are something like the 15th and 16th-best of the lot.

So either the O's didn't fail, or you have to conclude that 80% or 90% of all high draft picks are failures.  You can take your pick.

You want a real kicker... Brian Matusz had just about an average career for a #4 pick.

Yep...I think the number is usually around 50% of first rounders even make the majors.  It’s why you can’t really call DJ a bust.  He did get there at least.

That being said, there has obviously been some serious ineptitude by the Orioles scouting and PD staff over the last 25 years.  This, of course, isn’t news to anyone.

The success of any franchise is always going to be based on the foundation of the players you develop, not the ones you buy elsewhere.  
 

For a farm system that wasn’t ranked high from 2012-2016, the Os got a lot of their home grown talent and those whom they traded for when they were very early in their careers.  Rankings and all of that don’t matter if you are producing.  Right now, the system is ranked about as good as I have ever seen it but it means nothing if they don’t perform.

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47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep...I think the number is usually around 50% of first rounders even make the majors.  It’s why you can’t really call DJ a bust.  He did get there at least.

That being said, there has obviously been some serious ineptitude by the Orioles scouting and PD staff over the last 25 years.  This, of course, isn’t news to anyone.

The success of any franchise is always going to be based on the foundation of the players you develop, not the ones you buy elsewhere.  
 

For a farm system that wasn’t ranked high from 2012-2026, the Os got a lot of their home grown talent and those whom they traded for when they were very early in their careers.  Rankings and all of that don’t matter if you are producing.  Right now, the system is ranked about as good as I have ever seen it but it means nothing if they don’t perform.

Notable home grown debuts 2012-16: Machado, Bundy, Gausman, Schoop, Joseph, C. Walker*, Givens, Davies*, Rodriguez*, Drake*, Mancini, Hart, Bridwell*.

* Either debuted with another team or was traded before providing much value to the Orioles.   

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

All this is true, and yet it’s undeniable that the O’s have gotten below average yield out of the draft over the last 20ish years, despite picking high most of the time.   But we don’t know yet what the results of Elias’ player development regime will be, and to some extent, the results of even the Duquette regime’s drafting and development are still unfolding.   

Here’s a thread I did on the best Orioles draft picks of the 21st century, which also compares our draft yield with the other teams in the AL East.   Through 2016, we’d gotten the least WAR from the draft of the 5 teams, though we’d done pretty well from 2010 forward.   I’ve updated the “best Oriole picks” part of the thread every year, but one of these days I need to update the comparison with the other four teams.  

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/26963-ranking-the-best-orioles-draft-picks-of-the-21st-century/#comments

Nice thread ....

Thanks .... A disappointment or under achievers is mentioned quite often.

So when a guy like Arrieta who was horrible here leaves and performs well elsewhere it further makes our development system look bad.

I guess you can point to Alberto, Santander, Severino and maybe Valaika ( @wildcard honorable mention) as guys who were developed here?

 

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o

 

(vs. D-RAYS, 9/20)

 

Valaika was charged with 2 Errors on defense, and went 0-for-3 on offense this afternoon ....... fortunately, the Orioles were able to win the game anyway.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=401226461

 

I like Valaika, warts and all ...... I'm not sure how (or if) he will fit into the Orioles' plans for 2021 and beyond, but I like him.

 

o

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27 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

(vs. D-RAYS, 9/20)

 

Valaika was charged with 2 Errors on defense, and went 0-for-3 on offense this afternoon ....... fortunately, the Orioles were able to win the game anyway.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=401226461

 

I like Valaika, warts and all ...... I'm not sure how (or if) he will fit into the Orioles' plans for 2021 and beyond, but I like him.

He’s very weak defensively at SS.  

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After watching Valaika this year and then looking at his statcast numbers,  I think  it's fair to say we have a solid read on him by now. Valaika has a little pop in the bat and is versatile guy in that he can play a lot of positions, but he doesn't play any them well.

He got pretty regular at bats this year and his WOBA was .306 (.317 MLB AVG) so it was slightly below average. His hard hit% is about major league average 34% vs 34.8 MLB avg. 

So the bat to me is slightly below average overall at best, but the problem comes is that he's below average at every position you play him at due to his 45 infield arm and below average first step quickness (my observations). 

The thing is, he's not awful any where so you can kinda get away with him as a utility player because although he's below average, he's not "will kill you awful" anywhere. 

At the end of the day, I could see Valaika as a starter on lower Division team that will ultimately give you below average numbers across the board, but he's more suited as a bat first utility guy.

Do I think he can be serviceable utility guy in the major leagues? Sure, if you are looking more bat heavy than fielding heavy. 

Is he any part of the future as a regular, no, I don't think he brings enough of anything to be a first Division starter. 

 

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28 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

After watching Valaika this year and then looking at his statcast numbers,  I think  it's fair to say we have a solid read on him by now. Valaika has a little pop in the bat and is versatile guy in that he can play a lot of positions, but he doesn't play any them well.

He got pretty regular at bats this year and his WOBA was .306 (.317 MLB AVG) so it was slightly below average. His hard hit% is about major league average 34% vs 34.8 MLB avg. 

So the bat to me is slightly below average overall at best, but the problem comes is that he's below average at every position you play him at due to his 45 infield arm and below average first step quickness (my observations). 

The thing is, he's not awful any where so you can kinda get away with him as a utility player because although he's below average, he's not "will kill you awful" anywhere. 

At the end of the day, I could see Valaika as a starter on lower Division team that will ultimately give you below average numbers across the board, but he's more suited as a bat first utility guy.

Do I think he can be serviceable utility guy in the major leagues? Sure, if you are looking more bat heavy than fielding heavy. 

Is he any part of the future as a regular, no, I don't think he brings enough of anything to be a first Division starter. 

 

Yes, I agree.  Not playing SS that well hurts him as a UIF.   He  hits lefties well. Does not hit righties well.  Just like Alberto.   Both are arbitration eligible.  Not sure Elias offers either one arbitration.   Alberto out of options.  Valaika has one left.   

I think Elias restructures the infield this off season.   Mancini/Mountcastle at 1B.   Igelaias at SS/DH.   He doesn't have to make a decision on Ruiz until spring when 1-3 year players contracts are picked up.   But Elias will no doubt be looking for more production from 3B.  2B and UIF is where we may see changes early in the off season.  Martin and Bannon probably begin the season at AAA if there such a thing next year.

Whoever is brought in will be cheap.

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I don’t think he has a future with us. Next year we’re going to be significantly better, and the P Valaika of the world are both plentiful and inadequate for an improving team. I agree with everything @Tony-OH and @Moose Milligan said. Better to have a no bat, solid defender.

I think we’ll have no shortage of opportunities, and I also think Martin will be back.

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2 hours ago, wildcard said:

He  hits lefties well. Does not hit righties well.  Just like Alberto.

I went and looked up his minor league numbers because his MLB splits are pretty pronounced but in not a huge number of ABs. Didn't really show much, he's had reasonably typical L/R splits.  I'd expect him to hit lefties 75 or 100 points better going forward.

But here's the weird thing.  In 2017 he's listed as having an at bat left-handed in the minors for Albuquerque.  Against a left-handed pitcher.  Maybe it's a typo, maybe it never happened.  But I want to know the backstory.  Maybe he just decided to hit lefty in a 23-1 game or something.

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