Dylan Bundy - Did Our Saber Guys Fail Us?

[interloper]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Per an article I saw in Fangraphs, the trends in his pitch mix largely  started last year.   They’ve moved a bit further in the same direction this year.   The one exception is he used his slider just a bit less last year than the year before, but this year has reversed that.   

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/you-can-dream-on-dylan-bundy-again/

PS - I think there’s a Bundy thread already in the MLB forum.   I don’t mind discussing this Forbes article here since it’s related to our pitching development program in a backhand way.   

Yeah Elias already had him throwing a different pitch mix. He just continued it/furthered it this year. 

It is what it is. 

[sevastras]

As hard as he works, who is to say he didn’t spend the off season looking at film himself and figuring out how to get better?  I would bet dollars to donuts that is more of what happened with the pitch mix than coaching.  

[jerios55]

https://www.mlb.com/player/parker-bridwell-592170

Didn't the same thing happen the first year with this guy? 

That didn't last, but I see it's a injury. 

[DrungoHazewood]

13 hours ago, hoosiers said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/2020/08/20/the-dylan-bundy-breakthrough-was-totally-foreseeable/#28b9889956db

Not sure if this was posted somewhere else, but somewhat disturbing news if true.  

Article claims we had him using a sub-optimal pitch mix instead of more sliders, fewer FBs.  His BB is down, his K rate is up and his Adjusted Contact Scores are doing very well.

I thought our FO was supposed to do this to other teams, not have it be done to them.  

He has a 2.50 ERA in 42 innings.  In 2017 he had a 1.65 in April and a 2.00 in August.  In 2018 he had a 1.98 in June and a 2.97 in April.  In '19 he had a 2.64 in May.  When he came up he was averaging 94 on the fastball, now he's sitting at 90.

If he throws his next 200 innings to a 3.00 I'll concede your point.

 

[murph]

Also, Bundy's last 3 starts have not been nearly as good as his first 4 starts.  Maybe the league is adjusting to his new pitch mix? 

 

[interloper]

20 minutes ago, murph said:

Also, Bundy's last 3 starts have not been nearly as good as his first 4 starts.  Maybe the league is adjusting to his new pitch mix? 

 

It's all about the slider. When it's on, it's one of the nastiest pitches I've ever seen someone throw that consistently over multiple innings. If it's not quite as elite that particular day, he can run into some trouble. 

[OrioleDog]

11 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

It is possible that he is pitching better and that is affecting his pitch selection, i.e. if he is ahead in the count more. 

Also it looks like he has steadily reduced his FB%. The trend started on the O's even if he is taking it to a new level. (61% in 2015, down to 50% in 2019, 39% this year).

I heard last week something like this is the first year in MLB history fastball usage has dipped <50%.

It was kind of a watershed for me watching Lance McCullers throw like 30-straight curveballs to the Yankees in the playoffs; even for pitchers with credible fastballs, their hottest breaking pitches I think are generally considered most effective.

I think maybe the pig's next stop in the python will be can careers sustain?  But if the teams get their effectiveness in 1-2 year doses, do they even care?   Driveline's gonna ready hundreds of AAA guys willing to blow it out for their 15 seconds of fame, bruh, and data is growing the science slice of the pie chart at art's expense.

Maybe teams care about Walker Buehler (and wishing for Grayson Rodriguez, etc), but even his HOF-potential career seems likely to be punctuated by a turn off every 8-10 starts, until we get to see him try his very best in October.

We can buy Bundy back for 2022 if the situation is right; the real grade for our Saber process is how does that Bundy basket pitch - seems clear they were our handpicked guys.  I recall the Angels GM giving a quote a higher-level guy was talked about in the negotiations, but the Orioles request ended up being the basis of the deal.

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He has a 2.50 ERA in 42 innings.  In 2017 he had a 1.65 in April and a 2.00 in August.  In 2018 he had a 1.98 in June and a 2.97 in April.  In '19 he had a 2.64 in May.  When he came up he was averaging 94 on the fastball, now he's sitting at 90.

If he throws his next 200 innings to a 3.00 I'll concede your point.

 

I made a similar post in a thread in the other forum.    Even if he pitches well “all” season this year, we won’t really know if he can hold it together over 30 starts.    I hope he can — he’ll always be someone I root for.   

[Aristotelian]

47 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

I heard last week something like this is the first year in MLB history fastball usage has dipped <50%.

It was kind of a watershed for me watching Lance McCullers throw like 30-straight curveballs to the Yankees in the playoffs; even for pitchers with credible fastballs, their hottest breaking pitches I think are generally considered most effective.

I think maybe the pig's next stop in the python will be can careers sustain?  But if the teams get their effectiveness in 1-2 year doses, do they even care?   Driveline's gonna ready hundreds of AAA guys willing to blow it out for their 15 seconds of fame, bruh, and data is growing the science slice of the pie chart at art's expense.

Maybe teams care about Walker Buehler (and wishing for Grayson Rodriguez, etc), but even his HOF-potential career seems likely to be punctuated by a turn off every 8-10 starts, until we get to see him try his very best in October.

We can buy Bundy back for 2022 if the situation is right; the real grade for our Saber process is how does that Bundy basket pitch - seems clear they were our handpicked guys.  I recall the Angels GM giving a quote a higher-level guy was talked about in the negotiations, but the Orioles request ended up being the basis of the deal.

39% FB's is crazy! Unbelievable Bundy has become a soft tossing junk guy. He really has a fantastic slider and change though. Just imagine what he could have been throwing 96-98. 

[weams]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

39% FB's is crazy! Unbelievable Bundy has become a soft tossing junk guy. He really has a fantastic slider and change though. Just imagine what he could have been throwing 96-98. 

When the shoulder turned to calcium, I was no longer on board.  

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, weams said:

When the shoulder turned to calcium, I was no longer on board.  

He never should have gone to Greece.

 

That was too obscure right?

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

39% FB's is crazy! Unbelievable Bundy has become a soft tossing junk guy. He really has a fantastic slider and change though. Just imagine what he could have been throwing 96-98. 

Almost every pitcher in history is battling to figure everything out before his fastball loses four mph.  The very best are the ones with stuff so good they don't have to know what they're doing, ones who just naturally know how to pitch when they're 20, or the Nolan Ryan freaks (or is he just the one freak?) who throw 94 at 45.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

He never should have gone to Greece.

 

That was too obscure right?

I didn't get it.  But I don't think anything is too obscure.  It's up to us to keep up or just not care.

[Aristotelian]

13 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Almost every pitcher in history is battling to figure everything out before his fastball loses four mph.  The very best are the ones with stuff so good they don't have to know what they're doing, ones who just naturally know how to pitch when they're 20, or the Nolan Ryan freaks (or is he just the one freak?) who throw 94 at 45.

Very true but would have been nice to capture at least a couple of years with the good stuff.

[murph]

7 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I didn't get it.  But I don't think anything is too obscure.  It's up to us to keep up or just not care.

Strictly from memory (and a faulty one at that), Bundy went to Greece for platlet? Injections.     Before the shoulder calcified.