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Three Run Homer

The Legend of Cesar Valdez

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(vs. BLUE JAYS, 9/27)


Valdez hurled a 3-Up/3-Down inning on 13 pitches to save the game against the Blue Jays in the 2020 season finale.



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  • Posts

    • Yes the BABiP was low and unlucky in 2020 but so what?  Usually, I think that’s important but we are still talking less than 1/4 of the at bats in a full season.  Those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. That being said, he has never had a real high BABIP in his career.  I don’t know if that is a trend or something you gloss over because of the limited number of at bats and SSS in any given season.
    • Just to elaborate on this, here’s a comparison of Santander’s actual numbers from 2020 compared to his expected numbers based on quality of contact: BA .261 vs. xBA .286 SLG .575 vs. xSLG .510 wOBA .358 vs. xwOBA .338. The gap between his xBA and xSLG (call it xISO) is .224.    For me that’s a more realistic predicter of Santander’s ISO than his actual .314 from last year.     The good news in here is that Santander’s xBA is 25 points higher than his actual BA.    Philip pointed out that Santander had a low .248 BABIP, and it looks like at least some of that was due to poor luck.     Having looked at all this, I think my projection of .775-.800 OPS was a little conservative and I’d boost it to the .800-.825 bracket.   I continue to think .900 is very aggressive.   At the same time, Santander is still relatively young and inexperienced, so maybe he’ll prove to be better than I expect in 2021.     
    • That’s fine...and I agree he is improving but there is a difference between improving and taking a massive leap. I know  how much weight you put on SSS but last year, he had 165 PA.  He did that in less than 1/4 of a season.  While that’s something, it’s more nothing than something. First and foremost, he has to show he can play a full season.  He has never played more than 93 ML games in any season.  He has to prove that not only can he stay healthy and play everyday but that playing everyday won’t wear him down as the season goes on.  In 2019, he had 380ish PA and his OPs was under 600 for the last month of the season.  Did he wear down?  Just got cold?  Who k laws but he has to show that he can do it over 550+ at bats. He has basically shown, so far, that he is a guy that will hit 260-265.  Could that improve?  Sure.  Do I expect him to take some huge leap?  No way.  I would expect him to be in the 255-280 range.  Not a terribly low floor but not a high ceiling either.     As Frobby mentioned, his ISO isn’t likely to be sustainable, so predicting a slugging around 500 (career 476) makes sense to me.  That is improvement. Its the OBP that gets me here.  His just doesn’t walk much.  Yes, in the SSS of last year, his Bb rate improved a little.  Could it go to 7 or even 8%?  Yes, I think it can.  As he shows more power and continues to improve, it’s possible teams stay away from him more.  If he does that, that brings him into the Nunez area of walk rates.  Nunez was roughly a 250/310 hitter with a 7.5ish% walk rate.  As I said, I would expect Santander to have a better BA and that is what will drive that OBP.  So, even if he got into those Nunez rates, we are still talking a 315-340 OBP.     RZ’s projection is on the high side of a reasonable ceiling.  Reasonable being defined as something that you don’t have to sit there and be overly optimistic to say he can get there.  Playing the odds so to speak. Im just not sure where you think he can realistically add another 50 points of OPS. Especially when you factor in the idea that you are essentially saying if he has an 800-850 OPS, that you would be disappointed in his season. 3 of the last 4 years, we have seen about an average of 25 players have a 900 OPS or higher.  That includes the SSS of last year.  Prior to that stretch, it was usually in the 15 player range.     I think Mancini is a more complete hitter than Santander is.  You are essentially saying Santander will take the same leap Mancini did in 2019.  One difference is that Mancini had already shown he could play a full season and that he could hit in the 290s at the ML level.  His leap was still totally unexpected, at least to the level it went and I would be surprised if he got to that level again.  Again, it’s possible...but I think it’s over the top to say it should happen.  Let’s see if he can even play 120 games first.
    • Good for that guy.  Glad he found success somewhere.
    • Santander will play all of the 2021 regular season at age 26.  He is still improving.
    • The homers and RBIs are possible..expecting him to have a 900 OPs is crazy to me.  Not saying he can’t do it but expecting makes no sense imo. (I know you’re is at 850..that’s certainly more realistic)
    • I hope he at least got to pose with that giant silver sword that the team owners gifted them. 
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