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Moose Milligan

Where's Pedro Severino fit in the future?

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Severino is having a great year.  And while I'm sure he's not quite THIS good, he could be a valuable piece.  

Rutschman is in the wings, some expect to see him in Baltimore next year at some point.  But if Severino is OPSing .921 next year, what do you do with him?  Hell, even if he's OPSing .850, he's still got value.  He's arbitration eligible after 2021 and a free agent after the 2024 season.  

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Its a developing situation.   Severino and Sisco allow Elias not to have to rush AR.    When AR is ready one of the two will probably be traded.  Its too early to be sure who.   Severino hitting makes him a good backup C/DH.  He may turn out to be more valuable than Nunez.   

But that is all probably at least a year away.  So many things can happen.

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1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Its a developing situation.   Severino and Sisco allow Elias not to have to rush AR.    When AR is ready one of the two will probably be traded.  Its too early to be sure who.   Severino hitting makes him a good backup C/DH.  He may turn out to be more valuable than Nunez.   

But that is all probably at least a year away.  So many things can happen.

Prove to me it's possible to rush AR.

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I would dangle him or Sisco this offseason to see if we could get a SS or 3B prospect out of either of them. The extra roster spot does make it easier to carry 3 catchers too, it's not ideal, but it could work. Also, if Davis is gone, I could see Sisco getting some starts at 1B if his bat continues to be productive next year.

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34 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its a developing situation.   Severino and Sisco allow Elias not to have to rush AR.    When AR is ready one of the two will probably be traded.  Its too early to be sure who.   Severino hitting makes him a good backup C/DH.  He may turn out to be more valuable than Nunez.   

But that is all probably at least a year away.  So many things can happen.

I'm pretty positive that Severino is already a more valuable player than Nunez. Nunez really hasn't shown himself to be an everyday player and it's a longshot to say that he ever will be. Severino is competent/average at a premium defensive position and gets on base at a much higher rate last season and this on.

32 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Prove to me it's possible to rush AR.

Yeah,  even with the most conservative of development approaches he should be baked and ready sometime next year(only thing that gives me pause is this lost minor league season), and it's absurd to suggest that anything that Severino or Sisco can do would have any impact whatsoever on his potential debut/promotion.

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13 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

I thought the OH consensus was already that 3 catchers was a good thing with the blend of talent they (Rutchman, Sisco, Severino) each bring. DHing one every now and then, etc. 

I think it's still up in the air. I think you can pull off a 3 catcher situation if the DH spot is open (bye, Nunez) and if at least one can prove they can play another position reasonably well to help spread ABs and provide extra off days to other players somewhere else.

AR will be an everyday player (at least as much as a catcher can be). If you are keeping both Severino and Sisco, there's not enough ABs to go around. If one is primarily just sitting on the bench, we may be better served to trade one for a more useful piece to this team and if you wanted to carry a third catcher, you make that third guy a Holaday type.

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19 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

I thought the OH consensus was already that 3 catchers was a good thing with the blend of talent they (Rutchman, Sisco, Severino) each bring. DHing one every now and then, etc. 

It's my impression that Elias doesn't want to ride Rutschman into the ground like Wieters and he might catch 120 games max while playing DH/1B. I don't see it being too much of an issue if Severino keeps playing well. Plus if the O's really are overstocked at catch that's when you make a trade in a couple years. 

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He doesn’t. Back up catchers are valued for defense, and his is awful. Sisco’s defense is not good either, but it’s about the same as Severino’s. They are both at minus 1 DRS, but Sisco is negative 7 dWAR and Severino is only -.1dWAR.

So, not much glory in our catching defense. But if you want your backup to hit above all, then Sevi is the guy. I don’t know who runs faster, but I’ve seen continents shift faster than Sisco.

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2 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

I thought the OH consensus was already that 3 catchers was a good thing with the blend of talent they (Rutchman, Sisco, Severino) each bring. DHing one every now and then, etc. 

I agree.  Especially if they keep rosters at 28 next season which I suspect they will.

Severino has the highest OPS (.921) of any catcher in baseball with at least 65 at bats.

He leads all catchers in baseball with 37 hits.  He would have probably started the All Star game this year for the AL.

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I think we should be open to trade offers on both Sisco and Severino but not in any rush. Usually your backup catcher is a defensive type but I don't see any reason why that has to be the case. Eventually we will need to choose between the two and right now I would want to keep Severino. 

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22 minutes ago, Philip said:

He doesn’t. Back up catchers are valued for defense, and his is awful. Sisco’s defense is not good either, but it’s about the same as Severino’s. They are both at minus 1 DRS, but Sisco is negative 7 dWAR and Severino is only -.1dWAR.

So, not much glory in our catching defense. But if you want your backup to hit above all, then Sevi is the guy. I don’t know who runs faster, but I’ve seen continents shift faster than Sisco.

Severino is 11th of 71 catcher in sprint speed, Sisco is 52nd, Holaday is 32nd.

Backup catchers are valued for defense only because there aren't 60+ Major league players who can adequately catch while also being good hitters, in fact there are arguably fewer than 30.

There is nothing inherently more valuable in having a backup catcher that can't hit over a backup catcher who can.

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Just hope he keeps it up enough that we could see a good return in a trade. I’d hold on to Sisco as a 3rd catcher/DH/1B in the long run just to keep a home grown lefty around. Severino was a waiver pickup and if we can turn that into a couple prospects then that’d be cool. It doesn’t have to be this off season either. It could be until 2021 trade deadline or offseason. After that it may get crowded behind the plate.

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