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Moose Milligan

Where's Pedro Severino fit in the future?

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3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Prove to me it's possible to rush AR.

You could define "rush AR" as "moving him faster than Elias's planned timetable".   We don't know what Elias's planned timetable for Rutschman is, but we are beginning to accumulate a body of evidence than it is usally slower than most fans would like.

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6 minutes ago, SteveA said:

You could define "rush AR" as "moving him faster than Elias's planned timetable".   We don't know what Elias's planned timetable for Rutschman is, but we are beginning to accumulate a body of evidence than it is usally slower than most fans would like.

You could define it that way.  I couldn't 

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10 minutes ago, SteveA said:

You could define "rush AR" as "moving him faster than Elias's planned timetable".   We don't know what Elias's planned timetable for Rutschman is, but we are beginning to accumulate a body of evidence than it is usally slower than most fans would like.

I think rushing a prospect is really only a thing in the context of service time.  Or of expecting much more out of a young player than is reasonable.  If there were no service time considerations most top prospects would be in the majors in their late teens or early 20s and very few of them would have lasting negative consequences from skipping the now-standard must-spend-X-time-at-each-level development program.

Source: how baseball was prior to 1975 when free agency happened and service time mattered.

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Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

I think rushing a prospect is really only a thing in the context of service time.  Or of expecting much more out of a young player than is reasonable.  If there were no service time considerations most top prospects would be in the majors in their late teens or early 20s and very few of them would have lasting negative consequences from skipping the now-standard must-spend-X-time-at-each-level development program.

Source: how baseball was prior to 1975 when free agency happened and service time mattered.

"How baseball was prior to 1975"?   How long did Don Baylor and other guys have to stay in the minors because they were blocked by major leaguers who would never be granted free agency?   

So do you believe then, that in all the cases where Elias is keeping guys down while fans are screaming to see them (Akin, Mountcastle, etc), Elias's motivation is truly only service time considerations?

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7 minutes ago, SteveA said:

"How baseball was prior to 1975"?   How long did Don Baylor and other guys have to stay in the minors because they were blocked by major leaguers who would never be granted free agency?   

So do you believe then, that in all the cases where Elias is keeping guys down while fans are screaming to see them (Akin, Mountcastle, etc), Elias's motivation is truly only service time considerations?

Only?  No.

Primary?  Yes.

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1 hour ago, Philip said:

I’m unsure that Sisco has any trade value. His defense is not good. That’s OK if he’s hitting really well, but his hitting has declined enough that with his track record on offense, no team would trade anything meaningful for him.

He's currently got an .859 OPS with a .388 OBP (136 WRC+) - He's been worth 0.5 fWAR/bWAR in 26 games/85 PA. That's a 3-win player over 500 PA. Overall numbers are dragged down by a bad 2018, but 2017, 2019, and 2020 are all respectable to very good by catcher standards.

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37 minutes ago, SteveA said:

"How baseball was prior to 1975"?   How long did Don Baylor and other guys have to stay in the minors because they were blocked by major leaguers who would never be granted free agency?   

So do you believe then, that in all the cases where Elias is keeping guys down while fans are screaming to see them (Akin, Mountcastle, etc), Elias's motivation is truly only service time considerations?

One of Elias jobs is to field a competitive team and win.

A perhaps bigger part of that job, much to a fans chagrin, is to make the owner a lot of money.  That is done by playing service time games.

As a commodity analog, Apple doesn't roll out the iPhone 12 until they have adelvertised it, hyped it, put through a trade show or 50, and created a market where people are willing to pay a lot of money for it.

Baseball is a business.

Thats not even considering the competitive windows of small market teams in which multiple prospects need to be brought up during the same window before the wheels come off they make some bad decisions on multimillion dollar contracts that large market teams laugh off, and they are stuck signing massive numbers of waiver wire infielders to see which one can hit 10 HRs.

I'm not bitter.  I swear.

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7 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

He's currently got an .859 OPS with a .388 OBP (136 WRC+) - He's been worth 0.5 fWAR/bWAR in 26 games/85 PA. That's a 3-win player over 500 PA. Overall numbers are dragged down by a bad 2018, but 2017, 2019, and 2020 are all respectable to very good by catcher standards.

In that case, I definitely stand corrected. That brings up the question of whether we’d rather keep Sisco going forward or Severino, And I guess the winner of that debate would be a Combination of which success do we believe will be lasting, and who has more trade value? 
we shall see.

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4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Prove to me it's possible to rush AR.

I’d like to think he’s getting some useful experience at the alternate site working with the coaches and pretty experienced players on a pretty intensive basis.   I’d hope to see him sometime next year despite the lost MiL season.   

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1 hour ago, SteveA said:

"How baseball was prior to 1975"?   How long did Don Baylor and other guys have to stay in the minors because they were blocked by major leaguers who would never be granted free agency?   

So do you believe then, that in all the cases where Elias is keeping guys down while fans are screaming to see them (Akin, Mountcastle, etc), Elias's motivation is truly only service time considerations?

Sure, there were unusual cases where a guy was blocked by a Hall of Famer or three and stayed in AAA forever because the Orioles knew they could call them up whenever they wanted (prior to Rule 5 eligibility) and keep them forever.  Of course then free agency happened.  From 1954-75 the Orioles had 40 players who were in the majors from 17-21.  Basically two a year came up at 21 or younger.  In the 45 years since then they've had 15 players who were in the majors at or before 21. Instead of two a year it's now one every three years.

Yes, I think the single biggest driver to keeping players on the 3-5 years in the minors plan is making very sure that by the time the clock starts they're fully ready to contribute in the majors from day one.  Adley Rutschman could almost certainly put up a .650 or .700 OPS with good defense in the majors now.  He'd be better than half the catchers in the league.  Probably about as productive as Severino's career numbers, or Sisco.  But the Orioles hope in a year or 18 months he'll be a middle-of-the-order hitter, and they'll have him for six years as that.

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16 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

A perhaps bigger part of that job, much to a fans chagrin, is to make the owner a lot of money.  That is done by playing service time games.

Part of it is money, part of it is control.  The longer you wait to call up a player the longer he has to wait to have a choice in employers.  There's always the chance that the guy you've had in the organization since he was 18 is going to want to go somewhere else when given the opportunity.  If I were drafted by the Rangers or the Angels maybe I'd like to play for the Orioles one day.

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4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Part of it is money, part of it is control.  The longer you wait to call up a player the longer he has to wait to have a choice in employers.  There's always the chance that the guy you've had in the organization since he was 18 is going to want to go somewhere else when given the opportunity.  If I were drafted by the Rangers or the Angels maybe I'd like to play for the Orioles one day.

I think control can pretty easily be broken down into monetary value.  Of course, a competitive team can as well, with ticket draw and merchandising.  But I feel like control is one part an element of competition and one part an element of getting more value out of a player later into their prime.

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think rushing a prospect is really only a thing in the context of service time.  Or of expecting much more out of a young player than is reasonable.  If there were no service time considerations most top prospects would be in the majors in their late teens or early 20s and very few of them would have lasting negative consequences from skipping the now-standard must-spend-X-time-at-each-level development program.

Source: how baseball was prior to 1975 when free agency happened and service time mattered.

I agree. For the most part professional sports are young man/women's game. I think too many good 21 and 22 year olds are using up their best athletic years in the minors. 

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2 hours ago, SteveA said:

You could define "rush AR" as "moving him faster than Elias's planned timetable".   We don't know what Elias's planned timetable for Rutschman is, but we are beginning to accumulate a body of evidence than it is usally slower than most fans would like.

So far Elias has wanted prospects to play at each level for some amount of time.   AR hasn't  played any higher than  A ball. He hasn't even gotten to A+ ball.   What I have read  makes it seem like he is advanced defensively and with his throwing.   But he has not called a lot of games and he has not hit at the high levels of the minors.

Frobby hopes that the Bowie camp help move him forward.  But its not like catch games vs other teams.  And Elias has not promote anyone to the majors that has not played at least some at AAA.

I don't expect to see AR in the majors this season.  Just does not fit Elias MO.  I expect him to start next season at Frederick.  If he hits he will probably not be there more than a month.  Then there is Bowie and Norfolk.

Some of the way Elias thinks about service time may be connected to how much success the O's have in the majors.   Once the O's become full contender Elias made not hold prospects back as much if he thinks they can help win games in the majors.   But until the team reaches that point prospects could continue to be slow rounded.

Severino and Sisco's tenure with he team revolved around how AR progresses  IMO.

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