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Moose Milligan

Where's Pedro Severino fit in the future?

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5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So far Elias has wanted prospects to play at each level for some amount of time.   AR has only played at A ball. He hasn't even gotten to A+ ball.   What I have read  makes it seem like he is advanced defensively and with his throwing.   But he has not called a lot of games and he has not hit at the high levels of the minors.

Frobby hopes that the Bowie camp help move him forward.  But its not like catch games vs other teams.  And Elias has not promote anyone to the majors that has not played at least some at AAA.

I don't expect to see AR in the majors this season.  Just does not fit Elias MO.  I expect him to start next season at Frederick.  If he hits he will probably not be there more than a month.  Then there is Bowie and Norfolk.

Some of the way Elias thinks about service time may be connected to how much success the O's have in the majors.   Once the O's become full contender Elias made not hold prospects back as much if he thinks they can help win games in the majors.   But until the team reaches that point prospects could continue to be slow rounded.

Severino and Sisco's tenure with he team revolved around how AR progresses  IMO.

That is not a true statement.  You know that isn't a true statement.  Why would you make it?

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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That is not a true statement.  You know that isn't a true statement.  Why would you make it?

Give ol wildcard the benefit of the doubt and say he slipped up on this one.

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6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Give ol wildcard the benefit of the doubt and say he slipped up on this one.

I don't know, the recent sample size shows he's really slipped as a poster.

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9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Give ol wildcard the benefit of the doubt and say he slipped up on this one.

Explain.

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13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Explain.

?

You said he has only played at A ball.  That isn't correct.  But the context reads that you probably meant the highest level he's played at is A ball.  A simple slip, semantics really.  We knew what you meant.  

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1 hour ago, osfan83 said:

I agree. For the most part professional sports are young man/women's game. I think too many good 21 and 22 year olds are using up their best athletic years in the minors. 

A few examples are that a player is usually never faster than the day he debuts, and that's also when a pitcher's fastball is fastest.  In a lot of ways a player's career is a battle to figure out how to play in the majors before their skills decline to the point where it's pointless.  I don't think getting 80%+ of your reps against org guys in Kalamazoo is necessarily or always the best way to learn to play major league baseball.

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8 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Purely eyeballs here, but Severino's defense has seemed worse than Sisco's this year

Zero passed balls for Sisco. Three for Pedro.

Sisco has caught 2 of 9 base stealers. Severino 0 for 5.  These stats seem negligible.  

Both are slightly in the plus column for dWAR.  

Maybe someone else wants to provide the advance stats.

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4 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Zero passed balls for Sisco. Three for Pedro.

Sisco has caught 2 of 9 base stealers. Severino 0 for 5.  These stats seem negligible.  

Both are slightly in the plus column for dWAR.  

Maybe someone else wants to provide the advance stats.

FWIW, dWAR includes positional adjustment (as does oWAR, which is why you can't just add them up). You can be a less than average catcher and still have positive dWAR, in theory (I'm not positive the math works always).

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9 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Zero passed balls for Sisco. Three for Pedro.

Sisco has caught 2 of 9 base stealers. Severino 0 for 5.  These stats seem negligible.  

Both are slightly in the plus column for dWAR.  

Maybe someone else wants to provide the advance stats.

So you’re saying opposing teams have only stolen 12 bases against us this year?  Yeah, we should consider not using that as a metric if players don’t steal anymore. 

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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

So you’re saying opposing teams have only stolen 12 bases against us this year?  Yeah, we should consider not using that as a metric if players don’t steal anymore. 

That is what I've been saying.

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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That is what I've been saying.

To me, this should have always been the case for Sisco.  Buck was a little too obsessed with this stuff imo.

Where Sisco has needed to improve are all the other aspects, both physically and mentally, of being a catcher.  He seems to be improving and that’s a positive.

Hyde has talked about him taking grounders at first.  Being able to expand on his positional capabilities would be nice.

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2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

So you’re saying opposing teams have only stolen 12 bases against us this year?  Yeah, we should consider not using that as a metric if players don’t steal anymore. 

 

54 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That is what I've been saying.

I knew steals were down, but that's kind of amazing.  Holaday has an additional two attempts against him, but the Orioles have seen 18 steals (15 successful, 3 caught) attempted against them in 41 games.  So in rough terms base stealing has cost the Orioles defense between one and two runs this year.

We really are nearly back to 1953, when you could lead the league in steals with 25.  TTP and pop times to second haven't been this unimportant in many decades (unless you assume that everyone concentrating on that is the reason steals are way down... like how NBA scoring was down because people started playing defense [someone correct me if that's wrong, I really don't know much about basketball]).

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8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

I knew steals were down, but that's kind of amazing.  Holaday has an additional two attempts against him, but the Orioles have seen 18 steals (15 successful, 3 caught) attempted against them in 41 games.  So in rough terms base stealing has cost the Orioles defense between one and two runs this year.

We really are nearly back to 1953, when you could lead the league in steals with 25.  TTP and pop times to second haven't been this unimportant in many decades (unless you assume that everyone concentrating on that is the reason steals are way down... like how NBA scoring was down because people started playing defense [someone correct me if that's wrong, I really don't know much about basketball]).

I wonder how poor a catcher would have to be at suppressing the running game before it encouraged others teams to run enough that it was actually damaging?

would five percent do it?  Ten?

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I wanted some actual facts to back up my musings... Steals are essentially at the same level as last year, but this is the lowest they've been per-game since 1969.  Which I find surprising, because I tend to think of the 1959 go-go White Sox as the back end of an explosion of steals.  But every year from 1959-69 saw fewer steals than today.

Prior to 1920 and Ruth steals were at or even above one per team per game, and caught stealing data is incomplete but clearly there was a lot of it.  In some years more than half a caught stealing per team per game.  Then the live ball came and steals and caught dropped off by about half in the 20s, and further into the 30s-50s.  The low point was 1950, when an average team stole a base once every four games, and was caught once every five.  Several years in that era saw fewer steals than triples, so it was almost a surprise or a trick play.

In the 70s steals really took off and they peaked in the 80s and early 90s.  Kind of weirdly, the '87 home run year is the highest for steals since the deadball era, with an average team stealing 138 bases.  But we've been in a 30+ year decline that has accelerated the last decade.

In 2020 an average team steals 78 bases and is caught 26 times.

The Orioles hold the all time record* for steals in a season, with 364 in their National League incarnation in 1899.  The 1911 Giants are 2nd, with the '12 Giants 4th and several other Giants teams from that era in the top ten.  All those teams had John McGraw in common.  The '76 A's are third, they attempted about three steals a game.

The 1957 Senators are the trailers in this category with 13 steals all year, and 38 caught.  They shouldn't have even tried.

* Note that in 1898 they changed the definition of a steal from basically "any time you take an extra base not on your own hit" to today's rule.  So anything before that date isn't the same thing, so don't count that in all time records.

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5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wonder how poor a catcher would have to be at suppressing the running game before it encouraged others teams to run enough that it was actually damaging?

would five percent do it?  Ten?

That's a good question.  Game theory kind of question.  Are there now teams or players that would pull a "I ain't bunting on the shift" on this, and not steal no matter what, even if the other team was giving it to you?

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