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Frobby

Roch on the OF situation

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13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

1.   Orioles have a 3.91 ERA since the trade deadline.  I would not say the deadline deals have hurt them much yet.    

2.  As I said in another post in response to the same wrongheaded point, Mullins’ MiL line of .265/.323/.426 does not suggest that OBP is his game.    He’ll be lucky to carry a .310 OBP as a major leaguer.   

3.    Yeah I think the O’s might keep Valaika on the 40.     They kept Flaherty all those years.   

 

Well, if you are right and Mullins does no better than a 310  OBP then he will not be very good and probably will not have a long stay with the O's.    320-330 OBP is a bottom of the order hitting.  350 OBP would be a lead off hitter.  Let's see were it goes.

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11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That is one of the things we differ on.

I can imagine it being worse.

There’s only a small handful of guys who ever stopped switch hitting at some point after they reached the majors.    Here’s an article about it.   https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/7/12/3150099/switch-hitters-sometimes

And by the way BB-ref has bad data on these players.    If you look at their career splits, it generally appears that they always switch hit and never converted.    Not sure what the problem is there.   

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12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If only they had metrics that properly weighed OBP vs. other factors.    Oh wait, they do!  So let’s just use wOBA (.312 for Mullins this year) or wRC+ (94) for example.  They show that Mullins is a slightly below offensive player this year, and way below average for his career (.274/67).    But this year’s numbers, if sustained, are certainly acceptable for a plus defensive CF.     .316/96 is average for CF.   As I said, Mullins could flip a bit from his 2020 numbers and still be a big league player.   

Mullins currently has a 362 OBP vs righties and a 241 OBP vs lefties.  That would make him a platoon player if they had a another better hitting/good defensive CFer.   Waiting to see what Hays can do.

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Just now, wildcard said:

Mullins currently has a 362 OBP vs righties and a 241 OBP vs lefties.  That would make him a platoon player if they had a another better hitting/good defensive CFer.   Waiting to see what Hays can do.

At this point I'm thinking one of the surplus middle infielders gets converted.  Someone like Hall could probably play a solid CF if he can't stick at short.

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There have already been more feel good stories than most probably expected this year, but Hays finishing strong would be one more nice one entering the offseason as there's the injury/performance double whammy prevailing now.

Has anyone heard if clubs are able to keep alternate sites open when their seasons end?  I would guess some might want the simulated game reps through the World Series (or longer) as a 2021 stepping stone.  If Kremer only made it to a starter's pitch count in July sometime, would be nice for him to keep taking turns through October, even if only to the Adleys of the world.

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You enter next year with Mullins and Hays as your CFers.  Hays is your starter but he probably sits a few games a week until he shows health and production.

He is easily the superior talent but if he can't stay healthy and can't get consistent at bats, he won't make it in the majors.

Mullins is a 4th OFer at best.

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28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Well, if you are right and Mullins does no better than a 310  OBP then he will not be very good and probably will not have a long stay with the O's.    320-330 OBP is a bottom of the order hitting.  350 OBP would be a lead off hitter.  Let's see were it goes.

I’d be really shocked if Mullins ever posted a .350 OBP over a full season.   For what it’s worth, though, the way baseball has evolved we don’t see many leadoff hitters with a .350 OBP anymore.   MLB average is .332 this season.  As to Mullins not being on the team long if his OBP is .310, that depends what else he’s doing, defensively and otherwise.   The major league average at lineup spots 7-9 is way below .310.    Kevin Pillar has a career .296 OBP and has played a long time.    There are 97 players who have played CF and have at least 1000 at bats in the last 10 years.    Of those, 35 have an OBP of .310 or below.    Lots of guys you’ve heard of.    Have a look:   https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=1000&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2010-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=14,d&page=3_30

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It is good to have many decent players fueling camp fights but I still have Hays a guy I'd start most days if his body lets him.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/upgrading-a-deserved-barrel/

It's parsing 2019's September a lot to be sure, but he did then excel at Launch Angle tightness, and by the newfangled metric presented did not get a chunk of barrels it thinks he deserved, despite having very productive outcomes anyway.

This year even with all the out-gobbling results, he has about the same xwOBA as Hanser Alberto, and I think most would agree the tools are just generally louder than Mullins's.

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28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Mullins currently has a 362 OBP vs righties and a 241 OBP vs lefties.  That would make him a platoon player if they had a another better hitting/good defensive CFer.   Waiting to see what Hays can do.

Yes, I think it is Mullins’ fate to mostly be a LH platoon player.    Unfortunately, in today’s world where bullpens are pitching more and more, platoon players will end up batting from their weak side more often.    Last year the heaviest platoon guys with substantial playing time faced their “bad side” 13-15% of the time.  Compare that to 1983 when John Lowenstein faced RHP in 364 of 366 PA.

I do not expect Mullins to maintain a .362 OBP vs. RHP, by the way.    But he should certainly be respectable.   

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23 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

It is good to have many decent players fueling camp fights but I still have Hays a guy I'd start most days if his body lets him.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/upgrading-a-deserved-barrel/

It's parsing 2019's September a lot to be sure, but he did then excel at Launch Angle tightness, and by the newfangled metric presented did not get a chunk of barrels it thinks he deserved, despite having very productive outcomes anyway.

This year even with all the out-gobbling results, he has about the same xwOBA as Hanser Alberto, and I think most would agree the tools are just generally louder than Mullins's.

Hays has the potential to be our best all around outfielder.    But he’s got to stay on the field and prove it.

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I look at the comments and think, these were the same people, making the same comments about Yaz. I think Yaz laughs at us now. Maybe Mullins needs to go somewhere that will open him up instead of folks expecting something great from someone because of where they were drafted. Because Hays has definitely not proven anything over Mullins. Last years, one month sample size meant nothing for Hays. 

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Just now, Thats Baseball said:

I look at the comments and think, these were the same people, making the same comments about Yaz. I think Yaz laughs at us now. Maybe Mullins needs to go somewhere that will open him up instead of folks expecting something great from someone because of where they were drafted. Because Hays has definitely not proven anything over Mullins. Last years, one month sample size meant nothing for Hays. 

EVERYONE EVERYWHERE that knew who he was was making those comments about Yaz. 

What he is doing is extremely rare.

Dude won the lottery, great for him but it's pointless to compare any other player to him.

 

I have no idea what the expecting something great because of where they were drafted comment is about.  No clue at all, I'm actually curious what you are talking about.

 

I do agree that Hays hasn't proven he's a viable ML player.

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Hays due back early this week.  From Roch:

The Orioles won’t make hard judgments on Hays based on the games he’s able to play this month. He slashed .203/.273/.246 in 77 plate appearances, but was 8-for-28 in his last seven starts.

“I’m not looking to really evaluate him, I’m looking for him to just go play,” Hyde said.

“I believe in the player and I like his game a lot. I don’t think he got off to the start that he wanted, that he had in mind, but he finished the year so well last year. I think he’s extremely talented. I like him defensively, I like him offensively, I like that he’s able to hit the ball to all fields, I think he’s got some juice where he can really drive the ball out to the opposite field. So I’m not looking for him to put pressure on himself to play well these play couple weeks like he’s being evaluated. I just want him to go play.

“I think the organization is really high on him, and I think he’s going to be a really good major league player.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/09/hyde-on-hays-pending-return-nunezs-latest-streak-and-more.html

That’s what I think, too.

 

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