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ofan239

Santander may odd man out in 2021 or 2022

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45 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You can say that about a lot of things that eventually turned out to be not so obvious.  Would be nice if there was a comprehensive injury database. Otherwise we're guessing.

I’m good with that.

There are likely hundreds of players that never even get a chance because of injuries sustained in the minors.

I have a friend who was drafted and made it to AA..had to have TJ surgery and never was able to be the same again.

Far more examples of that than the Molitors of the world.

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3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure but that’s obviously an outlier.

Most athletes don’t frequently stay injured in their 20s and then, all of a sudden, become durable in their 30s.

Agreed, but having a series of different injuries three years in a row might not be indicative of being injury prone, either.    Sometimes a player just has a run of bad luck.   Jerry Hairston Jr. got slapped with the injury prone label when he was an Oriole, but ended up playing 16 years and never had a DL stint longer than 20 days in the 9 years after he left Baltimore. Mind you, he wasn’t exactly Cal Ripken Jr. on the injury front, as I think he only had two seasons without a DL trip out of those 9, and had two seasons where he was on the DL more than once.    But overall, he did not experience the repeated lengthy injuries he had while a younger player in Baltimore.   

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1 hour ago, luismatos4prez said:

At the time, he had hit poorly in his first cups of coffee.

He's put up a 106 OPS+ in 1000 PAs since then and is only 26. He has value.

I think the Rangers and A's knew better than put any weight on 60 or 70 PAs spread over several years.  They were willing to let him go on waivers because he hadn't hit particularly well in the minors and is defensively limited.

A pretty good definition of replacement level is a DH with a league-average bat.  Nunez is a DH who can stretch to play first, who has a slightly above average bat.  That puts just a bit of value between him and the waiver wire.

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I think it’s fine to say that Hays has been injury prone thus far.  I also think it’s fine to say we need a more immediate back up plan (which Mullins is turning out to be it appears) than we hope.

I think it’s unfair to say we can’t count on Hays going forward.

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34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m good with that.

There are likely hundreds of players that never even get a chance because of injuries sustained in the minors.

I have a friend who was drafted and made it to AA..had to have TJ surgery and never was able to be the same again.

Far more examples of that than the Molitors of the world.

I think I said that chronic injuries are a separate case, and major things like TJ are obviously a pretty big risk even today.

But I'm not convinced that someone can be snakebitten by injuries and that has any predictive value.  If you tear your ACL this year, and sprain your ankle next, it doesn't mean you're going to get another injury in the near future.

Edit: Or basically what Frobby said in his last post.

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Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

I think I said that chronic injuries are a separate case, and major things like TJ are obviously a pretty big risk even today.

But I'm not convinced that someone can be snakebitten by injuries and that has any predictive value.  If you tear your ACL this year, and sprain your ankle next, it doesn't mean you're going to get another injury in the near future.

I agree with that.

 

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I may be the only one that sees Stewart as an asset. Say what you want, but the dude gets on base and has at every level he's played. He's also got some pop in his bat, and I'm not convinced he's as bad an outfielder as some contend. He's also not slow and stole 66 bases in the minors in 88 attempts. Does he have work to do? Of course, but I think he deserves to be one of our four outfielders in 2021. 

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think the Rangers and A's knew better than put any weight on 60 or 70 PAs spread over several years.  They were willing to let him go on waivers because he hadn't hit particularly well in the minors and is defensively limited.

A pretty good definition of replacement level is a DH with a league-average bat.  Nunez is a DH who can stretch to play first, who has a slightly above average bat.  That puts just a bit of value between him and the waiver wire.

I think a slightly above average bat is a more valuable commodity than you're implying. There are teams that would love to have an above average bat at DH or coming off the bench. Especially if he's 26 and has years of team control in case he pulls a JD Martinez.

I predict he'll be traded for a Cadyn Grenier type prospect this offseason but I'll eat my words if he's non-tendered.

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Diaz might be the odd man out.

Key word is "might".    Anything is possible.   I don't know how we would know at this point who might not make it or be traded when we have not seen Diaz yet.

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2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Key word is "might".    Anything is possible.   I don't know how we would know at this point who might not make it or be traded when we have not seen Diaz yet.

I know.  That's why I said he might be the odd man out.

And it seems certainly possible.  Mountcastle, Hays (I doubt it, but whatever) and Santander.  With Mullins 4th.  Diaz can certainly be blocked.

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Diaz might be the odd man out.

From what I’ve read Diaz can play the outfield - giving him a leg up on Stewart and maybe Santander . I believe he played centerfield some  in the dodger system  

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2 minutes ago, ofan239 said:

From what I’ve read Diaz can play the outfield - giving him a leg up on Stewart and maybe Santander . I believe he played centerfield some  in the dodger system  

Here's hoping. 

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36 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

I think a slightly above average bat is a more valuable commodity than you're implying. There are teams that would love to have an above average bat at DH or coming off the bench. Especially if he's 26 and has years of team control in case he pulls a JD Martinez.

I predict he'll be traded for a Cadyn Grenier type prospect this offseason but I'll eat my words if he's non-tendered.

I doubt he’ll be non-tendered.   He’ll probably earn $1 mm next year as a Super-2.    That’s still pretty cheap for a guy who’s probably worth .5 - 1.0 wins.   Somebody will want him at that price.   

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1 hour ago, luismatos4prez said:

I think a slightly above average bat is a more valuable commodity than you're implying. There are teams that would love to have an above average bat at DH or coming off the bench. Especially if he's 26 and has years of team control in case he pulls a JD Martinez.

I predict he'll be traded for a Cadyn Grenier type prospect this offseason but I'll eat my words if he's non-tendered.

I don't think he'll be non-tendered.  But I also don't see him as a big asset.  He's just kind of an average-ish DH with limited defensive ability.  At some point the Orioles need to sort through a bunch of 1B/DH/corner OF types.

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