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wildcard

Who gets protected from the Rule 5 draft?

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In response to Frobby wonderings, here is a first cut at who makes the 40 man roster in November.  

The bold are those added to the 40 man who are not on it now or who are on the 45 day IL.

Starters: (10) Means,  Cobb, Kremer  Akin, Lopez, Fulmer, Kohl Stewart, Zimmerman, Baumann,  Lowther

Relievers:  (11) Harvey,  Scott, Tate, Fry, Lakins, Armstrong, Valdez, Pop, Sulser, Eshelman, Mattson

Pitcher (22)

Position players (18)

1B Mancini, Nevin, Davis

2B: Alberto, Valaika, Bannon

SS Iglesias,  Martin

3B Ruiz

C  Severino, Sisco

LF Stewart

CF  Mullins, Hays, McKenna

RF Santander, Diaz

DH Mountcastle, (Nunez)

That's 40 overall

Players subtracted or not covered: (19) Davis, Wynns,  Carroll, Hess, LeBlanc, Wojo,  Holaday, Herrera, Urias,  Williams, Phillips, Kline, Gonzalez, Hanhold, Shepherd, Zastryzny, Taylor Davis, Smith, Velazquez, Well

This is just my opinion.

OK, who did I miss and should be added or who should not be protected?

Change made: Add Wells, Subtract Velazquez.

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Thanks for the overview!   Its V-ery tempting to just say that if you are a V-name, you are in the Final Four.  You could even stretch to the Latin alphabet to shoehorn SV-lser.   The Wells subtraction was the one that seemed toughest at first skim.

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7 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Thanks for the overview!   Its V-ery tempting to just say that if you are a V-name, you are in the Final Four.  You could even stretch to the Latin alphabet to shoehorn SV-lser.   The Wells subtraction was the one that seemed toughest at first skim.

I have my doubts if any team who pick Wells expecting to keep him on their 26 man roster all season.  But you could be right.  Let's see what others think.

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I think Velazquez is gone. He's a fine utility guy, but can be replaced by a minor league, camp invite guy, plus Martin's return.

I'd also much rather protect Wells or Smith over him even if it's hard to see either sticking on another roster, but coming off the bizarre 2020 season I'm not sure if I expect a normal off season either. I could also see them trying to move some guys (Nunez the most obvious one) to clear 40-man space.

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4 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I think Velazquez is gone. He's a fine utility guy, but can be replaced by a minor league, camp invite guy, plus Martin's return.

I'd also much rather protect Wells or Smith over him even if it's hard to see either sticking on another roster, but coming off the bizarre 2020 season I'm not sure if I expect a normal off season either. I could also see them trying to move some guys (Nunez the most obvious one) to clear 40-man space.

Its hard to trade guys between the end of the season and the Rule 5 draft.  More likely to trade Nunez after the Rule 5 draft.

You could be right on Velazquez.  However, I think Martin begins 2021 at AAA trying to prove he can improve his hitting.  If he does then he is the 2022 heir apparent at SS for Iglesias.  

So Velazquez is the best backup SS that will be in the majors.  I think Hyde likes him.  Its a close call if Elias would release him and try to sign him to a AAA contract IMO.

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Excellent list. I would like to find a way to protect Wells. I think Rio could be gone and replaced with a free agent. 

There is chance Nunez or Mancini could be traded or nontendered. I would also list Fulmer, Lopez, and Eshelman as potential expendables. I hate to say it, Valdez should be on that list too. 

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20 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Excellent list. I would like to find a way to protect Wells. I think Rio could be gone and replaced with a free agent. 

There is chance Nunez or Mancini could be traded or nontendered. I would also list Fulmer, Lopez, and Eshelman as potential expendables. I hate to say it, Valdez should be on that list too. 

Lopez maybe in the rotation to begin 2021. Eshelman appears to do well in mid to long relief.  Someone to eat innings.  Fulmer is a total unknown.  Its going to depend on whether Holt and company thinks they can fix him.

Valdez is too good and cheap to not protect IMO.

I don't see Elias letting Ruiz go until the has a replace so its one or the other on the roster.  Hard to replace him before the Rule 5 draft.

If you want to protect Wells just pick the guy that you think he is more valuable than.  Its all about opinions and you could be right.

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Elias picked up 57 UTI guys in the span of a few months.  These guys are always available.

No need to possibly lose a young piece to keep any of those guys.  They are a dime a dozen.

 

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I see 8 candidates for being added:

Diaz, Lowther, Baumann, Zimmermann, Mattson, Pop, Bannon, Wells

Wells wasn't added to the 60 man roster this year so he's the only one who's questionable to get on the 40 man. The rest I'd guess are added assuming Pop is healthy as he says.

There are a lot of expendables guys on the 40 man roster right now:

Davis, Wojo, Eshelman, Velazquez, Fulmer, Holaday, Carroll, Kline, Urias, Hess, Wynns

I doubt any of the above would be claimed if they went on waivers. Martin, Valdez, Lopez, and Valaika aren't part of the future and don't have a lot of value but they're useful players during the rebuild so I'd keep them for now.

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13 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

I see 8 candidates for being added:

Diaz, Lowther, Baumann, Zimmermann, Mattson, Pop, Bannon, Wells

Wells wasn't added to the 60 man roster this year so he's the only one who's questionable to get on the 40 man. The rest I'd guess are added assuming Pop is healthy as he says.

There are a lot of expendables guys on the 40 man roster right now:

Davis, Wojo, Eshelman, Velazquez, Fulmer, Holaday, Carroll, Kline, Urias, Hess, Wynns

I doubt any of the above would be claimed if they went on waivers. Martin, Valdez, Lopez, and Valaika aren't part of the future and don't have a lot of value but they're useful players during the rebuild so I'd keep them for now.

I don't know.

Eshelman right now is 3-0, 3.96 ERA , 1.08 WHIP,  .213 avg.  If he was released I think he would find another major league spot.

Fulmer - Let's see what happens the rest of the season and what Holt thinks of him.

Velazquez -  If he was released and told he had to go to AAA, I think he could find another major league team that needs a plus defensive SS/2B/CF on their bench.  Even if he doesn't hit.  He earns the minimum and he has options.  He is only 26.

JMO

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Currently, there are 39 players on the 40 man roster. This does not include Mancini (45 IL), Martin (45 IL) and Kohl Stewart (Restricted List/Opt Out). I am not sure Kohl Stewart is brought back, but I will assume for now that he does come back. LeBlanc is a free agent at season's end. So, that makes 42 players. 

The players of note that are eligible for the Rule 5 draft:

  • Yusniel Diaz OF
  • Mike Baumann RHP
  • Zac Lowther LHP
  • Bruce Zimmerman LHP
  • Alex Wells LHP
  • Rylan Bannon 2B
  • Isaac Mattson RHP
  • Zach Pop RHP
  • Cody Sedlock RHP
  • Brenan Hanifee RHP
  • Gray Fenter RHP
  • Brian Gonzalez LHP
  • Zach Muckenhirn LHP
  • JC Encarnacion 3B
  • Brett Cumberland C#
  • Mason McCoy UT
  • Ofelky Peralta RHP
  • Cameron Bishop LHP
  • Ryan Wilson LHP
  • Felix Bautista RHP
  • Zach Matson LHP
  • Nick Vespi LHP

I believe the five players bolded, Diaz, Baumann, Lowther, Zimmerman and Wells are certainly added. Bannon is likely added in place of Urias as INF insurance. Mattson is likely added. Not sure Pop will be added since he is coming off TJ, but lets say he does get added. That would make eight (8) rule 5 protection additions. I left off Sedlock and Fenter since they were not protected last year, and neither one was added to the 60 man player pool. I left off Hanifee, though I pause just a bit with that. Single A starter in 2019, but his profile is one that might intrigue someone. I left off Brian Gonzalez as I think he is just LH inventory for the player pool.

That makes 50 players to account for. I need a minimum of ten subtractions, but I'll make eleven for a rule 5 possible addition at the meetings. I would subtract by DFA or trade:

  • Austin Wynns
  • Bryan Holaday
  • Asher Wojciechowski
  • Cesar Valdez
  • Branden Kline
  • David Hess
  • Chris Davis
  • Evan Phillips

I would look to trade:

  • Hanser Alberto (trade - arbitration eligible, below average defender, atrocious plate discipline, heavy for a middle infielder)
  • Renato Nunez (trade - If Mancini comes back, he's very expendable)
  • Alex Cobb (trade - get rid of that salary if you can, may not go until July 2021)

I keep Velazquez for now, since we do not know what season will look like for 2021. He can play very solid defense everywhere, if only he could do more than bunt and run. I think his defensive prowess keeps him here, but I could see him DFA'd depending on a few things.

I keep Cody Carroll for now. My thought is that he just needs more time after the injuries to get back in sync. He has two options.

I keep Kohl Stewart for now, but I can see letting him walk. Lopez and Eshelman seem ahead of him, unless they can move Cobb.

If they cannot move Alberto, Nunez and Cobb, then subtract Stewart, Carroll and/or Velazquez.

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Lopez maybe in the rotation to begin 2021. Eshelman appears to do well in mid to long relief.  Someone to eat innings.  Fulmer is a total unknown.  Its going to depend on whether Holt and company thinks they can fix him.

Valdez is too good and cheap to not protect IMO.

I don't see Elias letting Ruiz go until the has a replace so its one or the other on the roster.  Hard to replace him before the Rule 5 draft.

If you want to protect Wells just pick the guy that you think he is more valuable than.  Its all about opinions and you could be right.

All of the above were scrap heap guys that we got for free or next to nothing. They all have track records from elsewhere with no reason to think they are going to be much different here. MLB has Wells as our #20. He has had success at every level through AA. I just don't see how you let him go to another team for these replacement level guys.  

I agree, Valdez would hurt the most to lose based on what he has shown, followed by Eshelman. 

I saw Bannon is now on the 60 man. I wonder if he is going to give Rio some competition sooner rather than later. 

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8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

All of the above were scrap heap guys that we got for free or next to nothing. They all have track records from elsewhere with no reason to think they are going to be much different here. MLB has Wells as our #20. He has had success at every level through AA. I just don't see how you let him go to another team for these replacement level guys.  

I agree, Valdez would hurt the most to lose based on what he has shown, followed by Eshelman. 

I saw Bannon is now on the 60 man. I wonder if he is going to give Rio some competition sooner rather than later. 

Bannon defensively is a better 2B than 3B.   If Elias is going to replace Ruiz I doubt its with Bannon.  I think Bannon begins 2021 at Norfolk if the Tides as playing at that point.

My question on Wells is does any team draft a guy with an 80's fastball from AA and expect him to stay on the 26 man roster all season.  Its different for the O's because they can call him up and send him down as needed.

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