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SteveA

Playoffs -- what would it take?

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Getting swept by the Yankees pretty much killed our playoff hopes.   BUT... we aren't mathematically dead yet.   And we do have those 3 games with Toronto next weekend.   Toronto has the tiebreak with us, so we would have to get within two games of them by next Friday to have a chance.   What are the chances?

Here are the wild card standings after tonight's results, except for Seattle and Clevelandstill playing.   The top two of these teams will make he playoffs.

Toronto 26-22
Cleveland 26-22*
Seattle 22-26*
Baltimore 22-27
Detroit 21-28

First of all, if we do make the unlikely strong finish good enough to make a playoff push, I think we will outpace Seattle and Detroit.  

Could we catch Cleveland?   Well, the first problem is I don't understand what the wildcard tiebreak is for teams in different divisions.   Everything I can find online says that tiebreaks are head to head (and of course we didn't play Cleveland), and then division record.   Would they compare our ALE record vs Cleveland's ALC record if we tied?   I have no idea.   So I don't know if tying them is good enough to make the playoffs or if we would have to finish with a better record.

But looking at the remaining schedules:
   Baltimore:  5 vs Tampa, [email protected], [email protected]
   Cleveland:  1 vs Cubs (2-2 in the 7th), 4 @ Detroit, 4 vs White Sox, 3 vs Pittsburgh

It's extremely unlikely that we could make up 5 or 6 games in the loss column with the Indians having 7 games left with Detroit and Pittsburgh.   That just ain't gonna happen.

So our best shot to make the playoffs it to catch Toronto.   And the 3 games with them means that to have a 1982/1989 type chance in the final weekend, what we have to do is get to within two games of them before the final series in Buffalo.   Between now and then, we have:

Baltimore:  5 vs Tampa, [email protected]
Toronto:  [email protected], 4 vs Philly, 4 vs NYY

So what will it take?   Could we get to 27-30 by next Thursday?   We'd have to go 5-3 vs Tampa and Boston--- either going 3-2 vs Tampa & 2-1 vs Boston, or perhaps 2-3 vs Tampa & sweeping Boston.   If we did that, and Toronto was 29-28, we'd go into Buffalo next weekend still alive, needing a sweep to make the playoffs.   Could Toronto go 3-6 in the next 9 to be 29-28?  Maybe split 4 with Philly and go 1-4 vs the Yankees?  The Yankees have outscored Toronto 33-8 the last two nights.

It's a tall order, but not impossible:   win 5 of 8  vs Tampa and Boston, while Toronto goes 3-6 vs the Yankees and Phillies -- and we go into Buffalo down 2 games with 3 left, needing a sweep to make the playoffs.  Of course that adds the unlikelihood of a sweep on top of the other stuff that has to happen.   But it would be pretty darn fun to go into that last weekend with a puncher's chance.   We all know how things ended in ''82, and '89... as our hopes died on Sunday and Saturday of those weeks.   But hey, those are still weekends that no Oriole fan who was around will ever forget.   There's still a chance we could add another final weekend to that list.

 

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So if either Toronto or Cleveland goes 7-5, we’d have to win all our remaining games to tie them.   If they go 6-6, we have to go 10-1 to tie them.

This is not happening.    

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Just now, Frobby said:

Agree Zimmermann makes sense, given that Hyde said there was going to need to be a corresponding roster move.    So it’s not someone already on the 40-man roster.    It will be interesting to see who’s getting voted off the island, too.  

Could Davis be moved to the 45 day IL to clear a spot?

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o

 

The Orioles need to go 10-1 in order for my pre-season prediction top come to fruition. 32-28.

 

o

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An act of God. Because The Yankees came roaring back, we’re done. We were done after the Mets loss.

Just let’s enjoy the next couple weeks. Will be a long winter.

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29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So if either Toronto or Cleveland goes 7-5, we’d have to win all our remaining games to tie them.   If they go 6-6, we have to go 10-1 to tie them.

This is not happening.    

Yes.   But we don't have to catch both of them, just one of them.   There are TWO wildcards.

And to get within 2 of Toronto before the series next weekend, us going 5-3 and Toronto going 3-6 would suffice.   

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7 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Yes.   But we don't have to catch both of them, just one of them.   There are TWO wildcards.

And to get within 2 of Toronto before the series next weekend, us going 5-3 and Toronto going 3-6 would suffice.   

OK, I misunderstood the OP.   

Fangraphs has our chances of making the playoffs at 1.7%, and Toronto’s at 96.4%.    The Indians are at 98.5%.    So, I’m not holding my breath.    
 

 

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

OK, I misunderstood the OP.   

Fangraphs has our chances of making the playoffs at 1.7%, and Toronto’s at 96.4%.    The Indians are at 98.5%.    So, I’m not holding my breath.    
 

 

Sounds about right.   But if you figure our odds of sweeping Toronto next weekend is about 45% * 45% * 45%, because they are a bit better team than us and at home, which comes out to about 1 in 10... then by those numbers the chance of us getting to the point where a sweep gets us in would be about 17%.   That's not out of the question.

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21 minutes ago, SteveA said:

And to get within 2 of Toronto before the series next weekend, us going 5-3 and Toronto going 3-6 would suffice.

Here's the path.  I am bummed here to learn of the tiebreak need to be within 2 not 3 by next Friday night.

This is more '82 than '89 with the chasing and a sweep being needed vs. clawing to hold on.

These are a few days to savor - next year is going to be more 1990 than 1983, though it should have its joys unboxing the really fun toys.

A rare window of pulling for Bryce Harper and the Yankees.  Regrettably Phillies using Wheeler/Nola tonight/tomorrow before Toronto series so back end of their staff performing well 4 times in 3 days a big ask.  But Cole again for them Monday, and I do feel like Red Sox thousand yard stares could be a few thousand early next week.

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It's very frustrating that we couldn't take advantage of Toronto getting decimated the last 10 games or so to pass them into the playoffs (especially given how we lost the wild card game to the Jays the last time we were in the postseason). But in general the Orioles have been surprisingly fun to follow and long ago surpassed the number of wins I had predicted before the season started. And to think they did so without their top two starting pitchers, centerfielder, and shortstop much of the time--and then, after the trade deadline, the back end of their bullpen! Well, that's baseball, even in a 60-game season. I thoroughly enjoyed the overperformances by journeymen and optimistic glimpses into the future given by youngsters from our farm system.

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We're still within a Phillies rally and Cole holding serve tomorrow to be 3 behind Toronto entering Tuesday night, when they have Yanks and we have Red Sox.  

Huge Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday in Seattle as they get the kind of final week shot at the Astros I was hoping we'd get at Toronto.  Even Trout has an MVP and Bundy has Cy Young votes to chase with how the Jays and Astros have let everyone hang around.

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Just for the record, here is what it would take to make the playoffs at this point:

SCENARIO 1:

   -- Orioles sweep Red Sox

   -- Toronto loses at least 3 of 4 to Yankees

   -- Orioles sweep Toronto

   -- Seattle loses 2 or more games ([email protected], 4vsOak) *
       *if Seattle doesn't lose 2+ games, we would still make it if Houston lost at least 6 of their last 7 (3vsSea, [email protected])

   -- Angels lose at least 1 more game (2 vs SD, [email protected])

   -- (Tigers don't matter because if we win out and finish 29-31, the best they could finish would be 28-30 because they have two games vs SL that won't be made up.  29-31 = .483333,  28-30 = .48275 so we would win that based on better win%)

 

SCENARIO 2:

   -- Orioles win 2 of 3 vs Boston

   -- Toronto loses all 4 to Yankees

   -- Orioles sweep Toronto

   -- Seattle loses at least 3 games ([email protected], 4 vs Oak)*
      *If Seattle doesn't lose 3+ games, we would still make it if Houston lost all 7 (3vsSea, [email protected])

   -- Angels lose 2 or more games (2 vs SD, [email protected])

   -- Tigers lose at least 1 game ([email protected], [email protected])

   -- Royals lose at least 1 game (3 vs SL, 4 vs Det)

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And to think, I had given up.  I thought we were in rooting for top 5 pick mode, but would we take the BPA anyway?  Let’s just sweep BOS for fun. 

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