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Connolly: Duquette's Minor League

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22 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Folks love to throw around terms like bust in regards to players who don't end up excelling in the majors.

Josh Hart is what a bust looks like.  He topped out at A+ ball.

Folks like Sisco and Stewart aren't busts, those are success stories.

Wasn't he RZNJs guy? I can just remember someone always telling me how wrong I was on Hart and then when the guy would get hot for a week or two he would post everyday and act like I was a knucklehead for doubting him. :D

I never liked the workout and a few game cuts I saw of him after he was drafted and then heard awful things about him down in extended by some good evaluators. 

Once he had the .586 OPS in Delmarva with a the poor K-B ratio, I was pretty sure he was a dud professionally. 

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I think RZNJ tried pretty hard not to dismiss Hart based on his first season or two.    But Hart never really improved.    

I thought it was BP, not BA, that kept Hart highly ranked for a long time despite lack of performance.  I remember Stotle (who did some work for BP at the time) making some posts trying to defend BP’s ranking, although he wasn’t the one who had done the ranking.    
 

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8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is it Dan's fault he signed the players in the first place?

Yes, yes it is.

For instance lots of folks questioned signing Matusz that year.

I’m supposed to believe Dan went over budget to sign Matusz?  The owner didn’t tell him before what he could or couldn’t spend? 

Dan knew the owner was going to sign Davis?

In 2015 they spent no money that offseason. The big moves were Snyder trade and Cabrera signing. Then in April he deals Webb. Makes no sense. 

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4 hours ago, Philip said:

Trading away a draft pick to save money is stupid, especially when so little money is involved. I think Matusz and Webb were both under 5 million. 

I agree. I find it hard to believe Dan did it willingly. 

You think O’Day/Gausman deal wasn’t about money? 

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Here’s who has made the majors from Duquette’s drafts so far (each year in descending WAR order):

2012: Gausman, Hader, Walker, Kline,  (20.9 WAR)

2013: Mancini, Yaz, D. Hart, Brault, Crichton, Wynns, Harvey, Sisco, Yacabonis, Heim, Tarpley (17.2 WAR)

2014: Means, Scott, Hess, Wilkerson (5.1 WAR)

2015: Stewart, Mountcastle, Meisinger, Mullins (1.3 WAR)

2016: Akin, Hays (0.5 WAR)

2017-18 nobody yet

Obviously the later the year, the more incomplete the picture.  But that’s 25 players who’ve produced 45.2 WAR so far.

In that same time span:

TOR 30 players, 40.1 WAR

TBR 29 players, 10.9 WAR

NYY 33 players, 22.8 WAR

BOS 36 players, 12.4 WAR

Not bad by Duq I’d say.   
 

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22 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I agree. I find it hard to believe Dan did it willingly. 

You think O’Day/Gausman deal wasn’t about money? 

Of course they were about money, but that was slightly different. Matusz and Webb were,“Give us a token non-prospect and we’ll give you a draft pick...oh, and a declining player with a small salary, whom you can release the next day.”

I think the Webb pick was somewhere in the 70s, but the Matusz pick was ~20 picks sooner. I don’t remember Dans exact comments about the value of the picks, but they were dismissive. At a time when we’d lost several picks because of signing QA guys, those picks had value.

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s who has made the majors from Duquette’s drafts so far (each year in descending WAR order):

2012: Gausman, Hader, Walker, Kline,  (20.9 WAR)

2013: Mancini, Yaz, D. Hart, Brault, Crichton, Wynns, Harvey, Sisco, Yacabonis, Heim, Tarpley (17.2 WAR)

2014: Means, Scott, Hess, Wilkerson (5.1 WAR)

2015: Stewart, Mountcastle, Meisinger, Mullins (1.3 WAR)

2016: Akin, Hays (0.5 WAR)

2017-18 nobody yet

Obviously the later the year, the more incomplete the picture.  But that’s 25 players who’ve produced 45.2 WAR so far.

In that same time span:

TOR 30 players, 40.1 WAR

TBR 29 players, 10.9 WAR

NYY 33 players, 22.8 WAR

BOS 36 players, 12.4 WAR

Not bad by Duq I’d say.   
 

We drafted Donnie Hart? I thought we got him from Ny. Meanwhile, quite a trip down memory lane.
Yes, overall not a bad job. Meanwhile, it’s also worth mentioning that Buck/ Dan didn’t consider Yaz worth even a cup of coffee on one of history’s worst teams, and he now has the leading WAR on the Giants, and Walker  was a gift for the D-Backs. That’s ok, though. It will be interesting to see what the others add to the list.

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20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s who has made the majors from Duquette’s drafts so far (each year in descending WAR order):

2012: Gausman, Hader, Walker, Kline,  (20.9 WAR)

2013: Mancini, Yaz, D. Hart, Brault, Crichton, Wynns, Harvey, Sisco, Yacabonis, Heim, Tarpley (17.2 WAR)

2014: Means, Scott, Hess, Wilkerson (5.1 WAR)

2015: Stewart, Mountcastle, Meisinger, Mullins (1.3 WAR)

2016: Akin, Hays (0.5 WAR)

2017-18 nobody yet

Obviously the later the year, the more incomplete the picture.  But that’s 25 players who’ve produced 45.2 WAR so far.

In that same time span:

TOR 30 players, 40.1 WAR

TBR 29 players, 10.9 WAR

NYY 33 players, 22.8 WAR

BOS 36 players, 12.4 WAR

Not bad by Duq I’d say.   
 

Its an interesting list but I wonder how many were developed well under Duquette.  The knock on Dan is not the drafting but the development.  

Mancini developed under Dan.  Brady gets some credit for working with Trey.  Hader was traded early so not developed with the O's.  Guasman may have been rushed.  Could have been better than he was with the O's.

Means wasn't much of a prospect under Dan.  It was Holt that helped him with the change which helped him have a good year in 2019.  They say you can't mess up the good ones but Dan certainly tried. Keeping Mouncastle at SS/3B for too long.   

Scott is coming around under Elias' team.

I like Dan and love the team he built in a short time after he joined the O's.  But player development of minor leaguers was not his strong suit.   He had a knack for acquiring players at the major league level and making a team into a winner.  And that is not a bad thing.

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29 minutes ago, Philip said:

Of course they were about money, but that was slightly different. Matusz and Webb were,“Give us a token non-prospect and we’ll give you a draft pick...oh, and a declining player with a small salary, whom you can release the next day.”

I think the Webb pick was somewhere in the 70s, but the Matusz pick was ~20 picks sooner. I don’t remember Dans exact comments about the value of the picks, but they were dismissive. At a time when we’d lost several picks because of signing QA guys, those picks had value.

What he is suppose to say? The owner wanted me to cut salary and this is only way to acccomplish that? Of course he is going to downplay it.  

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13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its an interesting list but I wonder how many were developed well under Duquette.  The knock on Dan is not the drafting but the development.  

Mancini developed under Dan.  Brady gets some credit for working with Trey.  Hader was traded early so not developed with the O's.  Guasman may have been rushed.  Could have been better than he was with the O's.

Means wasn't much of a prospect under Dan.  It was Holt that helped him with the change which helped him have a good year in 2019.  They say you can't mess up the good ones but Dan certainly tried. Keeping Mouncastle at SS/3B for too long.   

Scott is coming around under Elias' team.

I like Dan and love the team he built in a short time after he joined the O's.  But player development of minor leaguers was not his strong suit.   He had a knack for acquiring players at the major league level and making a team into a winner.  And that is not a bad thing.

I am very happy Elias is here. I think he was the right man for the job and we are in a good place. 

Keep in mind though Brian Graham who was a Buck guy, ran the minor leagues. He wasn’t even hired by Dan. 

I think our player development is in a much better place now. Odds are they would not have been as good with Dan. That said it was never his show to run. It was a mess.  

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1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

I’m supposed to believe Dan went over budget to sign Matusz?  The owner didn’t tell him before what he could or couldn’t spend? 

Dan knew the owner was going to sign Davis?

In 2015 they spent no money that offseason. The big moves were Snyder trade and Cabrera signing. Then in April he deals Webb. Makes no sense. 

I think that if you can't convince ownership to eat the Webb and Matuez contracts that yes, it 100% falls on you.  He signed them, neither one of them were needed and he had to trade away draft picks to get shed of their contracts.

That is 100% on Dan.

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14 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

What he is suppose to say? The owner wanted me to cut salary and this is only way to acccomplish that? Of course he is going to downplay it.  

Obviously, whatever he would say was going to sound foolish and insincere. And it was both.

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12 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I am very happy Elias is here. I think he was the right man for the job and we are in a good place. 

Keep in mind though Brian Graham who was a Buck guy, ran the minor leagues. He wasn’t even hired by Dan. 

I think our player development is in a much better place now. Odds are they would not have been as good with Dan. That said it was never his show to run. It was a mess.  

This is what matters. The big problems are gone, and we are improving the important things about the organization.

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34 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its an interesting list but I wonder how many were developed well under Duquette.  The knock on Dan is not the drafting but the development.  

It’s interesting to me that the AL East hasn’t seen much yield in this time period.    Tampa’s low numbers surprised me.    The Yankees’ total WAR is basically one player, Aaron Judge.    Again, nobody really knows what 2017-18 yielded yet, and even 2014-16 are probably incomplete in terms of impact players produced.    

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Its an interesting list but I wonder how many were developed well under Duquette.  The knock on Dan is not the drafting but the development.  

Mancini developed under Dan.  Brady gets some credit for working with Trey.  Hader was traded early so not developed with the O's.  Guasman may have been rushed.  Could have been better than he was with the O's.

Means wasn't much of a prospect under Dan.  It was Holt that helped him with the change which helped him have a good year in 2019.  They say you can't mess up the good ones but Dan certainly tried. Keeping Mouncastle at SS/3B for too long.   

Scott is coming around under Elias' team.

I like Dan and love the team he built in a short time after he joined the O's.  But player development of minor leaguers was not his strong suit.   He had a knack for acquiring players at the major league level and making a team into a winner.  And that is not a bad thing.

If the narrative you want is that most of Dan’s picks that have had success were “turned around” by the new group, that’s your prerogative. It’s a mostly unprovable position, that I think is mostly hooey. 
Did keeping Mountcastle in the infield hurt his development? Did Tanner Scott have the same issues throughout his early career and also exhibit them in the majors this year? 

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