Orioles acquire SS Isaac DeLeon and OF Mishael Deson to complete the Bleier and Givens trades

[jabba72]

6'2 and 6'3 18 year olds that play SS and CF. Its not a bad return on a trade for relievers. They look like solid athletes with a chance to develop, in a system that is getting better at developing players.  

[OrioleDog]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I suppose that since the season is nearly over, it’s easier now to add someone to the 60-man squad and not be concerned that you’d actually need that spot for someone who might be called to the majors.  

Elias actually said precisely that on the team podcast.  I finally gave in to the commercials and subscribed - he was on with Hollander and Arnold a couple weeks ago.  It's team controlled content but its something.   He also said his expectation prior to next year's later All-Star weekend draft there was going to be some combine type stuff for clubs to get more data on the Rockers and Leiters of the world, in case we play our way back into that mix these last 9 days, with an assist from some 2019/2020 mixing.

Holding back even some of the better prospects until later was explained in the context of reserving enough space for AAAA guys if needed in case you were the team that had the Marlins/Cardinals type experience.

[OrioleDog]

By the 1 is a fluke, 2 is a trend notion, now as the PTBNL's get named I'm curious to see if it is all July 2 guys from 2-3 years ago.  It's as if we're retroactively doing some 2018/2019 stuff.

Unless of course it's a Bundy basket type pitcher we'll all not quite understand with what we have in view.

[luismatos4prez]

Melewski made a good point today. Schoop at age 16 hit 239/.320/.291 in the DSL and he has a ML slugging percentage of .450 a decade later.

[Philip]

9 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

@Philipkinda did, he hoped that other PTBNLs are more exciting than this.  And then said Bleier looked like a character from the Dick van Dyke show.  No doubt he was listening to Chopin, wearing a smoking jacket (with an ascot) and drinking a vintage cab sauv when he made that astute assessment.  

Doesn’t Bleier look like a character from the Dick Van Dyke show? Or a guest on Bewtitched? Or a detective on the Rockford Files?
And I drink Merlot, when the wife allows it.

And don’t YOU want some slightly exciting guys?  I’m not complaining, just kind of shrugging my shoulders and saying,” Let him do what is right in His own eyes.”

[weams]

28 minutes ago, Philip said:

When the wife allows it.

And don’t YOU want some slightly exciting guys? 

Mountcastle and Stewart are plenty exciting. Santander too! 

[hoosiers]

I think there should be a little more enthusiasm for these "lottery tickets".  I am going to go out on a limb and say these guys have already passed the sniff test with some organized playing time post-signing.  Same with the guys acquired for Cashner.  

By the time we add it all up with the additional PTBNL, we might have added 8-10 international guys added this year plus the Cashner guys.  In most years, I believe an organization signs about 25-35 international guys.  So, these trades have netted us perhaps a quarter to a third of a class and every one of these guys has avoided the "really not very good, probably shouldn't have signed the guy" designation that might be appropriate for a portion of a signing class. 

Sure, there is strength in numbers with possibly acquiring a large number of these guys, and the odds of each one individually making a major league impact is low, but I think these are higher quality international prospects than are being given credit for here. 

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

I think there should be a little more enthusiasm for these "lottery tickets".  I am going to go out on a limb and say these guys have already passed the sniff test with some organized playing time post-signing.  Same with the guys acquired for Cashner.  

By the time we add it all up with the additional PTBNL, we might have added 8-10 international guys added this year plus the Cashner guys.  In most years, I believe an organization signs about 25-35 international guys.  So, these trades have netted us perhaps a quarter to a third of a class and every one of these guys has avoided the "really not very good, probably shouldn't have signed the guy" designation that might be appropriate for a portion of a signing class. 

Sure, there is strength in numbers with possibly acquiring a large number of these guys, and the odds of each one individually making a major league impact is low, but I think these are higher quality international prospects than are being given credit for here. 

Diaz received  15.5M as a signing bonus.  That is a higher quality international prospect.

Yes guys at the 250K-300K tier do go on to have MLB careers but these aren't "higher quality international prospects", those generally find their way onto top 30 prospect lists.

 

Edit-

Checking out the O's Hangout top 30 prospect list from Oct 2010 (Schoop's first year stateside) he was listed in most folk's top 30.

I mention Schoop because someone mentioned Schoop's lack of slugging in the DSL.

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Diaz received  15.5M as a signing bonus.  That is a higher quality international prospect.

Yes guys at the 250K-300K tier do go on to have MLB careers but these aren't "higher quality international prospects", those generally find their way onto top 30 prospect lists.

 

Edit-

Checking out the O's Hangout top 30 prospect list from Oct 2010 (Schoop's first year stateside) he was listed in most folk's top 30.

I mention Schoop because someone mentioned Schoop's lack of slugging in the DSL.

Everything’s relative.    $250 k and up signing bonus is higher than most get, and quite a bit lower than some.    No I don’t think we’ve landed a Dominican prospect yet who deserved top 30 status before playing stateside just based on being in the upper, upper tier of July 2 bonus baby’s or based on some super-precocious DSL performance.    But once you’re in the $250 k + club, you’re someone deserving of attention.    

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Everything’s relative.    $250 k and up signing bonus is higher than most get, and quite a bit lower than some.    No I don’t think we’ve landed a Dominican prospect yet who deserved top 30 status before playing stateside just based on being in the upper, upper tier of July 2 bonus baby’s or based on some super-precocious DSL performance.    But once you’re in the $250 k + club, you’re someone deserving of attention.    

I'm not saying these guys don't have a chance, obviously they have a chance.  But they are lottery tickets. 

In 2017 the average International player signed for $185,675.63.   I think it is fair to say the majority of those guys would qualify as lottery tickets.

What we do know is that they aren't high helium guys or they wouldn't have been traded and would be on prospect lists and they aren't complete non-prospects or Elias wouldn't have been interested.

I'm glad Elias is avoiding the guys that would require 40 man slots and the old for their league college pitcher types and focusing on youth.  Hopefully a couple of these tickets pan out.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not saying these guys don't have a chance, obviously they have a chance.  But they are lottery tickets. 

In 2017 the average International player signed for $185,675.63.   I think it is fair to say the majority of those guys would qualify as lottery tickets.

When you say “average,” is that the mean or the median?    And where are you getting than information?

Assuming that $185 k is the mean, I’d assume the median is much lower.    The very top guys get $1.5 mm and up.    You could have one of those guys and 9 guys getting $40 k bonuses and that would give you a mean of $186 k.    I think last year or the year before I saw some list of $250 k and up and it wasn’t that many guys, 3-5 per team or something like that.   

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

When you say “average,” is that the mean or the median?    And where are you getting than information?

Assuming that $185 k is the mean, I’d assume the median is much lower.    The very top guys get $1.5 mm and up.    You could have one of those guys and 9 guys getting $40 k bonuses and that would give you a mean of $186 k.    I think last year or the year before I saw some list of $250 k and up and it wasn’t that many guys, 3-5 per team or something like that.   

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-analyzed-the-value-of-international-signing-bonus-money/

In 2017 $148,540,500 was spent in total for 800 players.

I divided the one into the other.

 

I'm not going to discount the discount group since you have folks like Atluve that signed for 15K.

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-analyzed-the-value-of-international-signing-bonus-money/

In 2017 $148,540,500 was spent in total for 800 players.

I divided the one into the other.

 

I'm not going to discount the discount group since you have folks like Atluve that signed for 15K.

Well, I agree you can’t ignore the cheaper guys. But one assumes that the higher the bonus, the higher percentage of guys who succeed, as a general proposition. Most of these guys are 16 when they sign, 14-15 in many cases when they reach verbal deals with teams, so there’s a lot of opportunity for guys to develop later and outperform their bonus.   

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, I agree you can’t ignore the cheaper guys. But one assumes that the higher the bonus, the higher percentage of guys who succeed, as a general proposition. Most of these guys are 16 when they sign, 14-15 in many cases when they reach verbal deals with teams, so there’s a lot of opportunity for guys to develop later and outperform their bonus.   

I think we should expect nothing and hopefully we'll be pleasantly surprised at some point.

[Frobby]

Looks like there were about 125 foreign players who earned bonuses of $300 k and up in 2018 on July 2.     There could have been a few more signed after July 2.    

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/july-2-international-prospects-signing-tracker-c283495622.html

So if a player is getting $300 k his bonus is in the top 15-20% of all players signed.