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Draft Order 2021

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2 hours ago, jerios55 said:

Detroit has a 2 game lead on us and the only team to win a tiebreaker based on last years record.  So I'm pretty sure 4th is the highest option now.

Sitting at 6th.  I think nats get 1 more at least and think 5th is looking fairly likely.

Detroit only has a one game lead on us, not two. Refer to the site that fansince posted above. You're looking at the loss column instead of overall percentage. If the Orioles lose twice, they will finish 24-36. If Detroit wins twice, they will finish 24-34. Thus Detroit would have a better record.

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2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

That worthless win against Boston the other day is going to prove costly.

Certainly, but the two losses to start the Boston series more than likely pushed the Red Sox out of the top two picks, and likely their chance at Rocker or Leiter.  

Based on the 2020 draft strategy, the draft position probably impacts the O's draft for their slot values, more than which player they would pick first. 

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Elias’ creativity with the slot amounts makes me highly doubtful he will just choose the xth best player next year. It is more likely he will manipulate the amounts to try and get more value. I know some hated not picking Martin, but I think it was probably an excellent move, and I wonder what escapades Mike will try next time.

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3 hours ago, beantownrefugee said:

Certainly, but the two losses to start the Boston series more than likely pushed the Red Sox out of the top two picks, and likely their chance at Rocker or Leiter.  

Based on the 2020 draft strategy, the draft position probably impacts the O's draft for their slot values, more than which player they would pick first. 

 

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Elias’ creativity with the slot amounts makes me highly doubtful he will just choose the xth best player next year. It is more likely he will manipulate the amounts to try and get more value. I know some hated not picking Martin, but I think it was probably an excellent move, and I wonder what escapades Mike will try next time.

Personally I think that strategy is less likely without a commanding advantage in slot dollars relative to other teams, which was the case in 2020. 

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4 hours ago, hutchead said:

Detroit only has a one game lead on us, not two. Refer to the site that fansince posted above. You're looking at the loss column instead of overall percentage. If the Orioles lose twice, they will finish 24-36. If Detroit wins twice, they will finish 24-34. Thus Detroit would have a better record.

Yeah, I was looking at wins only.  Didn't realize they had 4 to play. 

edit: I have to laugh.  The page you referenced from fansince is the link I posted one page earlier. 

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4 hours ago, jerios55 said:

Yeah, I was looking at wins only.  Didn't realize they had 4 to play. 

edit: I have to laugh.  The page you referenced from fansince is the link I posted one page earlier. 

Yeah, we end up playing two more games than Detroit so the unbalanced schedule this season due to Covid creates some interesting subplots. What would have been very interesting is what if Detroit had played two more games than us, and Detroit had finished 25-35 and we had finished 24-34. In the "games behind" column, we would have finished tied. However, their percentage would have been .417 while our percentage would have been .414. Thus, even though we finished tied in "games behind" and they own the tiebreaker, we would have officially finished behind them and would have received a higher draft pick.

Yes, that was funny about the link. I hadn't noticed that.

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1 minute ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Seems like almost everything good for our draft position had happened thus far. Sox win, Nats win, Rockies win, Tigers currently winning 

Rockies losing would be better, Arizona has a worse record.  I think Colorado losing out we'd tie.

But Detroit and Boston holding on would help.

Nice to see Nats win too.

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2 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Seems like almost everything good for our draft position had happened thus far. Sox win, Nats win, Rockies win, Tigers currently winning 

And tonight we saw more encouraging performances from important pieces of the future - Means and Hays. 

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9 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

Rockies losing would be better, Arizona has a worse record.  I think Colorado losing out we'd tie.

But Detroit and Boston holding on would help.

Nice to see Nats win too.

Yes, Rockies losing would be better. Detroit winning keeps us alive for the third pick. We're guaranteed no worse than the sixth pick now with Washington winning a double header.

Edited by hutchead

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4 minutes ago, hutchead said:

We've already clinched over both Colorado and Arizona so nothing else they do matters. We've also already clinched over Washington with their double header victory today. We're guaranteed the fifth pick at worse. Could still move up to third if  we lose tomorrow and Detroit holds on today and wins tomorrow and Boston wins tomorrow (assuming they don't blow a six run lead in the eighth inning tonight.

They are losing now and if that holds they'd be the same 24-35 as us.  If we win tomorrow (25-35) and they lose (24-36), they would pick before us.  Unless I'm missing something (again) our range is still 3-6.

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1 minute ago, jerios55 said:

They are losing now and if that holds they'd be the same 24-35 as us.  If we win tomorrow (25-35) and they lose (24-36), they would pick before us.  Unless I'm missing something (again) our range is still 3-6.

Yeah, I caught that the second I posted it, thus why I edited it.

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Assuming slotting is based solely on 2020 records (with tie-breaker being 2019 records:

With a loss tomorrow we will get somewhere between the 3rd and 5th picks depending on whether Boston and Detroit win (we want them both to win).

With a win tomorrow, we will either get the 5th pick or the 6th pick if Arizona loses tonight (they trail 7-3 in the 7th) and tomorrow.

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