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Draft Order 2021

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13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Tied for 5th with AZ.

If rules follow previous years, our 2019 record being worse gives us 5th and them 6th.

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32 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Unless of course they change their minds.

Which I wouldn't expect but it is possible.

 

Now that we have a higher pick than the Nationals, it wouldn't shock me at all to see them instigate a one time lottery.

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10 hours ago, jerios55 said:

If rules follow previous years, our 2019 record being worse gives us 5th and them 6th.

I hope that is what happens.  But has there been any information from the Commissioner's office about how ties will be addressed?

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3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I hope that is what happens.  But has there been any information from the Commissioner's office about how tie will be addressed?

He could always just make it who won a World Series last. Or who has the worst announcers. 

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I hope draft order is determined by combined totals of 2019-2020.  I think that's the fairest way.

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9 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I hope draft order is determined by combined totals of 2019-2020.  I think that's the fairest way.

It would be fair to extend win total out to what it would have been over 162 games and then total with 2019. A straight total would give too much weight to 2019 total.

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14 hours ago, wildcard said:

I hope that is what happens.  But has there been any information from the Commissioner's office about how ties will be addressed?

As a fan with no more than internet at my disposal (and that hasn't been used to announce anything official), I can offer no more than the positioning based on historical reference.

If last year is considered, #5 would be worst case (unless we start talking lottery...).

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23 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

It would be fair to extend win total out to what it would have been over 162 games and then total with 2019. A straight total would give too much weight to 2019 total.

Exactly my point.  More weight should be given to the last full season.

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3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Exactly my point.  More weight should be given to the last full season.

Is there any weighted average model that doesn't more heavily weight recency?

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3 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Is there any weighted average model that doesn't more heavily weight recency?

2019 is pretty recent.  This season's games are taken into the equation the same it's just 60 games verses 162.  This season would certainly affect the outcome.  Strange year.  I just think it's fair.  My opinion. 

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https://dknation.draftkings.com/mlb/2020/6/23/21300692/mlb-season-2020-length-standings-through-60-games-2019-last-year

https://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/_/group/overall

Using the first link to get first 60 and overall, I took the difference to get the last 102 from last season.  (With Detroit there is still the 2 game gap, but they were so terrible over this time they were the worst team either way even if they are given 2 wins in that place...)

Boston 53-49 over last 102, combined with this year they would be 77-85.

Baltimore 35-67, combined 60-102

Detroit 24-77, 47-112

Arizona 55-47, 80-82

Texas 46-56, 68-94

Pittsburgh 40-62, 59-103

Order based on 2020 only (if rules same as historically):

#1. Pittsburgh, #2. Texas, #3 Detroit, #4 Boston, #5 Baltimore, #6 Arizona

Order based on last 162 games (only doing these 6, Kansas others may move up otherwise...I need to work at some point today, feel free to go deeper). 

#1. Detroit, #2 Pittsburgh, #3 Baltimore, #4 Texas, #5 Boston, #6 Arizona.

edit: feel free to check my math as well, should all be 162 other than Detroit as I mentioned).

 

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3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

2019 is pretty recent.  This season's games are taken into the equation the same it's just 60 games verses 162.  This season would certainly affect the outcome.  Strange year.  I just think it's fair.  My opinion. 

Will 2021 rosters be closer to 2019 rosters or 2020?

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Just now, DirtyBird said:

Will 2021 rosters be closer to 2019 rosters or 2020?

I don't care.  lol

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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I don't care.  lol

Obviously. I think you are just arguing what would be best for the O's, not what makes the most sense.

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Just now, DirtyBird said:

Obviously. I think you are just arguing what would be best for the O's, not what makes the most sense.

I think it makes the most sense but it would be better for the Orioles, I'm sure.  

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