The offseason “elephant in the room”

[Tony-OH]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

rhe·tor·i·cal

: of, relating to, or concerned with rhetoric

b : employed for rhetorical effect especially : asked merely for effect with no answer expected

Smiley Face = sarcasm... 

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, SteveA said:

6 guys for 5 positions is NOT a problem.   Even 7 including Diaz isn't. 

It might not even be a surplus.

What are the chances all 6 or 7 will be healthy at the same time?   And if they are, what are the chances all 6 or 7 will be good enough to be regulars?

With Hays and Mancini as two of the options? Not a good chance.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I think Mancini has a higher % chance of producing 1.5+ WAR next year than about 30 of the 40 guys on the roster.   To say HE is blocking someone is ridiculous.   It's just an attempt to be a provacateur by saying something controversial.

No it’s not.  
 

Prior to 2019, Mancini was worth less than 1.5 fWAR in over 1200 ML plate appearances (300+ games).

So, based on what he accomplished for most of his career, it’s absurd to have the stance you do.

However, based on what he did in 2019, it would be absurd to consider non tendering him.

Chances are, the truth would normally lie in the middle...normally be the key word.  There is nothing normal about the situation with him right now.

We have no idea how he is going to come back.  If they sign him and bring him back, he is the starter at first.  There is no doubt about that. He will also get a long leash to get his strength back and shake off the rust.  So yes, he absolutely could be blocking someone while we wait for him to get his game back, if he ever does.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Smiley Face = sarcasm... 

Sorry, missed it. 

[SteveA]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

No it’s not.  
 

Prior to 2019, Mancini was worth less than 1.5 fWAR in over 1200 ML plate appearances (300+ games).

So, based on what he accomplished for most of his career, it’s absurd to have the stance you do.

However, based on what he did in 2019, it would be absurd to consider non tendering him.

Chances are, the truth would normally lie in the middle...normally be the key word.  There is nothing normal about the situation with him right now.

We have no idea how he is going to come back.  If they sign him and bring him back, he is the starter at first.  There is no doubt about that. He will also get a long leash to get his strength back and shake off the rust.  So yes, he absolutely could be blocking someone while we wait for him to get his game back, if he ever does.

We also have no idea if Mullins and Hays will be good enough hitters to be regulars in the majors, nor whether DJ Stewart will have enough value to stick in the majors.   Yet all seem to be in favor of giving them a chance to prove what they can do and I doubt anyone will claim they are blocking anyone.   Mancini certainly has big question marks too.   And yes, he will earn more than they do.   But looking at our potential surplus at CornerOF/1B/DH and defining Mancini as the problem is a skewed way of looking at things to me.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

We also have no idea if Mullins and Hays will be good enough hitters to be regulars in the majors, nor whether DJ Stewart will have enough value to stick in the majors.   Yet all seem to be in favor of giving them a chance to prove what they can do and I doubt anyone will claim they are blocking anyone.   Mancini certainly has big question marks too.   And yes, he will earn more than they do.   But looking at our potential surplus at CornerOF/1B/DH and defining Mancini as the problem is a skewed way of looking at things to me.  

So much is up in the air.  Can he play next year?  How much and what positions?  Does he expect to make the same as last season or is he willing to accept a more team friendly deal?

If the medical prognosis isn't favorable and he's expecting to make 5M you have to think long and hard on it. 

It is really easy for us to say Sure, pay him 5-8M if he can't play so what.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, SteveA said:

We also have no idea if Mullins and Hays will be good enough hitters to be regulars in the majors, nor whether DJ Stewart will have enough value to stick in the majors.   Yet all seem to be in favor of giving them a chance to prove what they can do and I doubt anyone will claim they are blocking anyone.   Mancini certainly has big question marks too.   And yes, he will earn more than they do.   But looking at our potential surplus at CornerOF/1B/DH and defining Mancini as the problem is a skewed way of looking at things to me.  

Not really defining him as a problem.

More like we just have several other cheaper options who aren’t coming off a life threatening disease that could zap his skills and strength.

Its not like the team is going to get a look at Trey prior to deciding to keep him or not.  They need to make that decision soon.  
 

Just so much unknown here and yes, if everything is good, you keep him but how much will you know to make that decision?

[Philip]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 They need to make that decision soon

No they don’t. They aren’t going to non-tender Trey.

[Moose Milligan]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No it’s not.  
 

Prior to 2019, Mancini was worth less than 1.5 fWAR in over 1200 ML plate appearances (300+ games).

So, based on what he accomplished for most of his career, it’s absurd to have the stance you do.

However, based on what he did in 2019, it would be absurd to consider non tendering him.

Chances are, the truth would normally lie in the middle...normally be the key word.  There is nothing normal about the situation with him right now.

We have no idea how he is going to come back.  If they sign him and bring him back, he is the starter at first.  There is no doubt about that. He will also get a long leash to get his strength back and shake off the rust.  So yes, he absolutely could be blocking someone while we wait for him to get his game back, if he ever does.

You're discounting his injury in 2018.  Came back pretty strong from that in 2019.  That doesn't play into your concern that he can't come back from cancer so it's not worth mentioning.  

Quote

Things were going great, though. I had doubled to center in the fifth inning to drive in two runs and give us a 3–1 lead. But in the top of the eighth, Yonder Alonso hit a foul ball to left, and I slid into the wall going after it. There was a little part at the bottom of the wall that wasn’t padded — and it just crushed my knee. I had to go to the E.R. that night, and I was out for a few days. In hindsight, I should have gone on the DL. I had never missed time because of an injury, and I wanted to play no matter what. But the truth was I was hurt way worse than I admitted. I couldn’t put much pressure on my right leg. It forced me to change my swing, which created some bad habits that led to failure at the plate … which got into my head. It just spiraled out of control.

I went into a massive, three-month slump. My average fell from .284 to .216. I was sure I was getting sent down to Triple A at that point. I was just totally lost.

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/i-am-so-lucky-trey-mancini-orioles-cancer

As mentioned, plenty of athletes have come back from cancer to regain their form.  Mike Lowell, Jon Lester, Andres Galarraga, Eric Davis, Mario Lemieux, Lance Armstrong.   You can quibble about Lance but he doped in a sport where everyone doped.  All those athletes came back from cancer and excelled.  And there are a lot of others, I'm not bringing up Olympians and WNBA players because...WNBA.

I'm not worried about Mancini returning to form, I don't see why anyone really should be.  He's got access to incredible doctors and trainers and the Orioles will do everything to make sure he's ready to go next year.  

If there was a correlation between cancer and losing hand-eye coordination, I'd be inclined to worry along with you.  But there's not.

[Sports Guy]

His injury in 2018 is valid.  But his stats are what they are and acting as if he is some slam dunk very good player is wrong.

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, Philip said:

No they don’t. They aren’t going to non-tender Trey.

Yea they do.  The non tender deadline is 6ish weeks away.

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

As mentioned, plenty of athletes have come back from cancer to regain their form.  Mike Lowell, Jon Lester, Andres Galarraga, Eric Davis, Mario Lemieux, Lance Armstrong.   You can quibble about Lance but he doped in a sport where everyone doped.  All those athletes came back from cancer and excelled.  And there are a lot of others, I'm not bringing up Olympians and WNBA players because...WNBA.

I'm not worried about Mancini returning to form, I don't see why anyone really should be.  He's got access to incredible doctors and trainers and the Orioles will do everything to make sure he's ready to go next year.  

If there was a correlation between cancer and losing hand-eye coordination, I'd be inclined to worry along with you.  But there's not.

I’m certainly not going to bet against Trey recovering all of his baseball skills, but it would be a great exaggeration to say I wasn’t worried about it.    There’s certainly an appreciable risk that he won’t.   And as I’ve said several times, my wish for his baseball skills to return is vastly secondary to my wish that he remain healthy and cancer free and live a full, happy like.    Baseball would be the cherry on the sundae.  

[luismatos4prez]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

Profar is a dreadful 2B. I don’t want School back either, god bless him. I want a real honest to god stop-gap until Gunnar or Hall or somebody is ready

What's wrong with Schoop? Strong defender and a lot of power. He has his warts but he's a good ballpayer.

Fair enough about Profar. What about Villar? The other infielders I'm seeing are too good (LeMahieu) or too bad (Hechavarria) to make sense.

[Jagwar]

I can't help but think that there is only one true elephant in the room, and his name rhymes with Shmiss Shmavis. 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

What's wrong with Schoop? Strong defender and a lot of power. He has his warts but he's a good ballpayer.

Fair enough about Profar. What about Villar? The other infielders I'm seeing are too good (LeMahieu) or too bad (Hechavarria) to make sense.

You know who’s just about right for this team, from a price vs. production standpoint?    Hanser Alberto.    

Schoop, by the way, has had a pretty nice season.